i
The Rise of Electric Two- wheelers in China:
Factors for their Success and Implications for the Future
By
JONATHAN XAVIER WEINERT
B. S. ( University of Michigan) 2000
M. S. ( University of California, Davis) 2005
DISSERTATION
Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
In
Transportation Technology and Policy
in the
OFFICE OF GRADUATE STUDIES
of the
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
DAVIS
Approved:
Prof. Joan Ogden, Chair
Prof. Dan Sperling
Dr. Andrew Burke
Committee in charge
2007
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The Rise of Electric Two- wheelers in China:
Factors for their Success and Implications for the Future
iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This dissertation examines the rise, present use, and future growth of the electric two-wheeler
( E2W, a. k. a. E2W or e- scooter) in China, the world’s most successful electric-drive
vehicle. The E2W market has been experiencing tremendous growth with over 30
million now in regular use on Chinese streets. The adoption of E2W technology is
significant because, along with their air quality and energy ( low- carbon) benefits
compared to gasoline powered motorcycles, E2Ws are driving the development of
improved and lower cost batteries and may lead to a shift toward larger three- and four-wheel
electric vehicles ( EV).
This dissertation explores three questions: why the E2W market grew so rapidly in
China, what factors are driving and resisting its growth, and how future growth might
impact the adoption of electric vehicles. Because these three questions intersect in
many domains, such as technology, economics, industrial organization, consumer
behavior ( the market), and public policy, a multi- disciplinary approach has been used
throughout the analysis. In Chapter 1, the context for this analysis is built by describing
China’s transportation past, present, and future challenges. E2Ws are also introduced
and compared with gasoline- powered motorcycles on several metrics, such as
performance, air emissions, and energy use. In Chapter 2, data from the literature was
collected and analyzed to understand the history and important reasons for E2W growth
in China. To supplement these data, the author and colleagues interviewed leaders of
E2W and battery companies and toured several manufacturing plants. In Chapter 3,
E2W and bicycles users were surveyed to understand how and why they use ( or don’t
iv
use) E2Ws. In Chapter 4, valve- regulated lead- acid ( VRLA) batteries commonly used in
today’s E2Ws were laboratory tested to determine their performance characteristics.
Data were also compiled on their cost, and on the cost and performance of Li- ion
batteries. In Chapter 5, the future of E2Ws in China was assessed by integrating data
from the previous three chapters and from the literature to create a force- field analysis of
the E2W market. This chapter concludes by examining the spillover effects E2W market
growth may have on the development of a market for larger electric vehicles. Chapter 6
provides recommendations for policy makers on E2Ws and suggestions of future areas
of research on this topic.
In answer to the first question, E2Ws have been successful in China for three principal
reasons: gasoline- powered motorcycle bans in large city centers removed E2Ws
strongest competitor; E2W technology, specifically motors and batteries, improved
significantly during the late 1990’ s; and due to improving economic conditions nationally,
urban household incomes rose causing surging demand for inexpensive private
transportation. The history of E2Ws provides an important lesson on the powerful impact
of regulatory policy when the evolution of technology produces a market acceptable
product.
In answer to the second question on factors driving and resisting growth of the E2W
market, three factors are identified as driving growth. First, there were improvements in
E2Ws and E2W batteries, both in terms of cost and performance, which can be partially
attributed to the unique E2W product architecture and industry structure. Second,
growing air quality and traffic problems in cities in part due to rapid urbanization has led
to strong political support for E2Ws at the local level in the form of motorcycle bans, and
loose enforcement of E2W standards. Third, public transit systems in cities have
v
become strained from the effects of urbanization and motorization, which has stimulated
greater demand for “ low- end” private transport. There are also formidable forces
resisting E2W market growth. The superior performance of motorcycles is a powerful
limiting factor, especially in areas where motorcycles are not banned and incomes are
high. Bans on E2Ws, which have been enforced in a handful of cities already, could also
limit their growth if they spread to more cities. Overall, the driving forces appear to
outweigh the resisting forces for future E2W market growth.
In answer to the third and final question regarding the adoption of larger EVs, there are
two characteristics of the E2W industry that may hasten EV development. First, the high
degree of component standardization in the industry due to E2W’s highly modular
product design with simple component interfaces is driving down costs. Secondly, the
unique structure of the E2W industry ( open- modular with many competitors) is leading to
continued improvements in battery cost and performance and the development of larger
E2Ws. As preliminary evidence, some E2W manufacturers have already begun
producing larger three- and four- wheel EVs. However, there are some major obstacles
facing these EVs that will not be easy to overcome in China. The largest is the issue of
recharging infrastructure, which will need to be built since EV batteries are not portable
like E2W batteries. Cell variability, safety issues related to high- voltage and unstable
battery chemistry in Li- ion are other obstacles.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
It is often said in science and other challenging endeavors, we are able to achieve only
because we had the privilege to stand on the shoulder of giants. Throughout this
dissertation process I’ve been incredibly fortunate to stand on the shoulder of several
titans: my advisors, some of the world’s finest minds in the field of alternative fuels,
energy, and transportation. I’m forever grateful to them for generously sharing their
wisdom with me, keeping me on track when I went astray, and always encouraging me.
First, I’d like to thank Joan Ogden, my main advisor, for tireless editing of this work, and
for many years of great advice throughout my grad school career; and Dan Sperling, my
second advisor, for the original inspiration to pursue this topic and years of sage advice
and editing. Thank you both for supporting and encouraging the decision to do this
research abroad in China; you gave me the learning opportunity of a lifetime. I’d like to
thank Andrew Burke, my third advisor, for generously spending his time with me
teaching me about batteries, and his always youthful attitude and inquisitiveness; it’s
inspiring. It was a wonderful experience working with you three; I feel lucky to have such
a strong committee.
Thanks to Andrew Hargadon, Tim Lipman, and Paul Erickson, who were very helpful
advisors during the formative stages of my dissertation. I was also fortunate to have a
diverse group of experts in various fields as external advisors to review my work and
offer guidance from time to time. I am especially grateful to Jack Johnston for his
continued support from beginning to end, always insightful suggestions, and
encouragement at times when I was feeling lost. Thanks also to Lee Schipper, Michael
vii
Wang, Feng An, and Rick Zalesky for reviewing my work and providing guidance from
time to time. Thanks to Marshall Miller for special assistance in battery testing.
Thanks to my ITS classmates for their input on my research, especially Anthony Eggert
and Ryan McCarthy, for being great people to bounce ideas off and brainstorm with, and
to Jason Ni, for great assistance during my maiden voyage to China.
My two years in Shanghai and three months in Beijing would not have been the
rewarding experience it was without the kindness, generosity, and support of many
wonderful individuals. First, thanks to Ma Jianxin and Zhou Wei, who took care of me at
Tongji, made sure I had a roof over my head, and guided my research from time to time.
Thanks to the entire Hydrogen Lab crew, especially Liu Shaojun, Pan Xiangmin, Yang
Daijun, Ma Xiaowei, and Zhang Cunman, Shen Meng, Xiao Fangwei, Wang Xiaolei, and
Xu Yongming, who’s patience with helping me learn Chinese and general assistance
when I ran into problems will not be forgotten. I would also like to thank Dr. Wei Xuezhe
who was a great help in my battery research phase. I was also fortunate to have four
great research assistants who went above and beyond the call of duty to help my project
succeed: Guo Yijun, Chen Weijun, and Yang Wei, and BiLu. During my stay at Tsinghua
University, I am especially grateful to two people in particular: Prof. Yang Xinmiao, who
embraced me as part of his research team, and Ma Zedan, my research partner and
friend on this project, who made survey research in Shijiazhuang fun. Thanks to John
Zhang, Arthur Gong, Jennifer Guan, and Edward Zhu and the rest of the Halter Financial
crew for the internship opportunity, assistance in battery research, and giving me a first
hand glimpse of the Chinese business world. ! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + , & # - . / 0
1 2 3 4 ' * + , 5 6 7 8 # 9 : / ; < # = > 2 6 ? @ A B C D 2
viii
I was very fortunate to work with Chris Cherry for part of this research when we crossed
paths in China. He provided me lots of great data and references when I was just
entering the field and throughout the process. Our tag- team interviews and visits to E2W
manufacturers would not have been possible without him.
I would like to acknowledge Ed Benjamin, the true laowai pioneer in the field of Chinese
E2Ws, who was instrumental to this research in helping me make connections with
manufacturers, and providing key insights and suggestions about the industry. His team
members, Chen DingWu and Jane Yao, were also very helpful and generous with their
time with me. I am thankful to Frank Jamerson and his annual Electric Bike World Report,
a great source of information. I’d also like to acknowledge Hannes Neupert, Bin- ming Lin,
and Mo- hua Yang also long- time E2W pioneers.
This research has been aided immensely by the work of many people who came before
and provided a foundation for understanding electric two- wheelers in China, the unique
problems of transportation in developing countries, and China’s unique situation and
challenges. These authors and their important contributions are referenced in Chapter 7.
I’d like to also thank Ernie Hoftyzer and the staff of ITS: Joan Tolentino, Ning Wan, Katie
Rustad, Christina Adamson, Roberta Devine, AnneMarie Schaaf, and Stacey Mello, for
helping me solve the many administrative and computing problems I ran into while I was
abroad and for making life as a grad student pleasant and trouble- free while I was at
ITS.
Financial support for this research was made possible by IGERT, the ITS- Davis
Hydrogen Pathways Program, the China Center for Energy and Transportation, and the
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Chevron Texaco Fellowship. Their generous funding throughout my years in graduate
school is much appreciated.
I am very grateful to the presidents and CEOs from several E2W and battery companies
who granted us lengthy interviews, factory visits, and data, in particular Angel, Lantian
Double- cycle, Ni Jie from Luyuan, Sanben Aurelia, and Small Antelope, Wang Jiqiang
from Tianjin Power Sources Institute, Ritar Battery, Lantian Double- cycle, and Xingheng
( Phylion) for help in acquiring data.
Finally, I’d like to thank my parents, friends, and relatives for their love, support, and
encouragement throughout this whole process, and for always keeping me well- fed and
smiling.
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................ iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................... vi
1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 China’s Changing Transportation Landscape: 1996 vs. 2006 .......................... 1
Urban Transportation in China................................................................................. 5
1.2 E2Ws Role in Sustainable Transportation........................................................ 7
1.3 Background on Motorized Two- wheelers in China ......................................... 10
Electric Two- wheelers............................................................................................ 11
E2W Issues ........................................................................................................... 15
Gasoline Scooters and Motorcycles....................................................................... 15
1.4 E2Ws Around the World: ............................................................................... 17
1.5 Research Objective and Research Questions................................................ 19
1.6 Scope and Limitations.................................................................................... 21
1.7 Dissertation Synopsis and Methodology ........................................................ 22
Chapter 2: The Transition To Electric Bikes In China: History And Key Reasons For
Rapid Growth ( published) ...................................................................................... 23
Chapter 3: Electric Two- Wheelers In China: Effect On Travel Behavior, Mode Shift,
And User Safety Perceptions In A Medium- Sized City ( published)......................... 25
Chapter 4: Lead- Acid And Lithium- Ion Batteries For The Chinese Electric Bike
Market And Implications On Future Technology Advancement ( published) ........... 26
Chapter 5: The Future Of Electric Two- Wheelers And Electric Vehicles In China .. 28
2 THE TRANSITION TO ELECTRIC BIKES IN CHINA: HISTORY AND KEY REASONS
FOR RAPID GROWTH ................................................................................................. 30
2.1 Introduction.................................................................................................... 30
Methodology.......................................................................................................... 31
The Chinese E2W Industry .................................................................................... 32
E2W Users ............................................................................................................ 33
2.2 Historical Analysis.......................................................................................... 35
2.3 Important Factors for Rapid E2W Growth ...................................................... 39
Technology Factors ............................................................................................... 39
Economic Factors .................................................................................................. 41
Policy Factors ........................................................................................................ 44
Changing Urban Form and Travel Patterns ........................................................... 49
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Other Factors......................................................................................................... 50
2.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 51
Recommendations................................................................................................. 53
3 ELECTRIC TWO- WHEELERS IN CHINA: EFFECT ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR, MODE
SHIFT, AND USER SAFETY PERCEPTIONS IN A MEDIUM- SIZED CITY................... 55
3.1 Introduction.................................................................................................... 56
Shijiazhuang Background ...................................................................................... 57
3.2 Methodology .................................................................................................. 58
Potential sampling biases/ inaccuracies.................................................................. 59
Data Processing .................................................................................................... 60
3.3 Results .......................................................................................................... 60
2WV User Demographic Differences ..................................................................... 60
Trip Characteristics................................................................................................ 62
Travel Mode Choice............................................................................................... 65
Traffic Safety ......................................................................................................... 69
3.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 73
3.5 Recommendations......................................................................................... 74
Traffic Management............................................................................................... 74
E2W Standards ..................................................................................................... 74
Areas of Future Analysis........................................................................................ 75
4 LEAD- ACID AND LITHIUM- ION BATTERIES FOR THE CHINESE ELECTRIC BIKE
MARKET AND IMPLICATIONS ON FUTURE TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENT.......... 76
4.1 Introduction.................................................................................................... 77
Motivation .............................................................................................................. 77
Methodology.......................................................................................................... 78
4.2 Transportation Battery Applications and Requirements.................................. 78
4.3 The Battery Industry In China ........................................................................ 80
VRLA Production ................................................................................................... 82
Li- ion Production.................................................................................................... 82
4.4 Batteries For E2Ws........................................................................................ 83
VRLA..................................................................................................................... 83
Lithium ion ............................................................................................................. 84
E2W Battery Requirements ................................................................................... 84
4.5 E2W Battery Performance And Price ............................................................. 86
VRLA..................................................................................................................... 87
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Lithium- ion............................................................................................................. 89
4.6 Battery Transitions In The E2W Market ......................................................... 90
Comparison of key factors for VRLA and Li- ion ..................................................... 91
Japan and Europe ................................................................................................. 92
4.7 E2W Market Growth and Battery Technology Advancement.......................... 93
Cell Variability........................................................................................................ 94
Safety .................................................................................................................... 94
Cost ....................................................................................................................... 94
4.8 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 95
5 THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC TWO- WHEELERS AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN
CHINA .................................................................................................................. 97
5.1 Introduction.................................................................................................... 98
Motivation .............................................................................................................. 98
Methodology.......................................................................................................... 99
5.2 Background ................................................................................................. 100
5.3 Driving Forces: Shift To Electric Two- Wheelers ........................................... 101
Force 1: Technology Improvements..................................................................... 102
Force 2: Local motorcycle bans ........................................................................... 111
Force 3: Local policy support for E2Ws................................................................ 111
Force 4: Deteriorating Bus Public Transit Service................................................ 112
Other Forces:....................................................................................................... 114
5.4 Resisting Forces: Shift To E2ws .................................................................. 114
Strong Demand for Motorcycles........................................................................... 115
E2W Bans ........................................................................................................... 115
Support for Public Transit .................................................................................... 117
5.5 Inter- Relatedness Of Forces ........................................................................ 117
5.6 Quantifying The Forces................................................................................ 119
5.7 Implications On Vehicle Electrification ......................................................... 120
Driving Forces ..................................................................................................... 121
Resisting Forces to Vehicle Electrification ........................................................... 124
5.8 Conclusions ................................................................................................. 126
6 CLOSING THOUGHTS ........................................................................................... 128
6.1 Areas of Future Analysis: ............................................................................. 128
6.2 Recommendations....................................................................................... 129
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7 REFERENCES........................................................................................................ 132
8 APPENDICES......................................................................................................... 141
8.1 Cost Calculations of E2Ws and other Common Transportation Modes ........ 141
8.2 E2W manufacturer Questionnaire ................................................................ 146
8.3 Manufacturer Interview Results ( 15 Companies).......................................... 148
8.4 E2W Dealer Questionnaire .......................................................................... 172
8.5 E2W Dealer Interview Results ( 4 Dealerships)............................................. 173
8.6 E2W User Interview..................................................................................... 179
8.7 E2W User Interview Results ( 12 Users) ....................................................... 181
8.8 Chapter 3 E2W User Survey........................................................................ 189
8.9 Chapter 3 Bicycle User Survey .................................................................... 197
8.10 Chapter 3 Survey Results ............................................................................ 204
User Demographics ............................................................................................. 204
2WV User Attitudes ( Part 1)................................................................................. 207
2WV Users and Public Transit ............................................................................. 209
2WV User Attitudes ( Part 2)................................................................................. 210
Table of Figures
Figure 1- 1: Motorized Vehicle Sales in China.................................................................. 3
Figure 1- 2: Observed 2- wheel Vehicle Proportions in Chinese Cities .............................. 4
Figure 1- 3: Air Emissions of E2Ws vs. Motorcycles......................................................... 8
Figure 1- 4: Well- to- wheels Energy Consumption of E2Ws and Motorcycles.................... 9
Figure 1- 5: Cost of Common Transport Modes in China................................................ 12
Figure 1- 6: Speed vs. Traffic Flow for Two- wheelers in Shanghai ( Ma 2007) [ 25] ......... 13
Figure 1- 7: Worldwide E2W Sales, 2006....................................................................... 18
Figure 2- 1: Most popular reasons for choosing an E2W................................................ 34
Figure 2- 2: Next best alternative for E2W users ............................................................ 35
Figure 2- 3: Income vs. mode choice in three Chinese cities .......................................... 42
Figure 2- 4: 2WV proportions in select Chinese cities..................................................... 47
xiv
Figure 2- 5: Two- Wheeled Vehicle Population Change in Shanghai............................... 48
Figure 3- 1: Bike and E2W users by age and gender ..................................................... 61
Figure 3- 2: Income levels of bike and E2W users ( RMB/ yr)........................................... 62
Figure 3- 3: Distribution of trip distance for bike and E2W.............................................. 63
Figure 3- 4: Reasons why users choose bikes/ E2Ws for commuting.............................. 66
Figure 3- 5: Bike/ E2W users reasons for choosing/ not choosing bus ............................. 67
Figure 3- 6: Next best alternative for bike/ E2W users..................................................... 68
Figure 3- 7: Future purchase plans of bike/ E2W users ................................................... 69
Figure 3- 8: Bike/ E2W user attitudes on speed of E2Ws ................................................ 70
Figure 3- 9: Most bothersome aspects for bike/ E2W users ............................................ 72
Figure 4- 1: The China Battery Market by Battery Type.................................................. 81
Figure 5- 1: Industry Structure Comparison, Closed- Integral vs. Open- Modular ........... 105
Figure 5- 2: E2W Industry Structure ............................................................................. 107
Figure 5- 3: E2W Design Flexibility............................................................................... 109
Figure 5- 4: Forces Driving E2W Market Growth .......................................................... 118
Figure 5- 5: Forces Resisting E2W Market Growth....................................................... 118
Figure 5- 6: Force Field Analysis of Driving and Resisting Forces to E2W Growth ....... 120
Figure 5- 7: Electric Vehicles Offered by E2W Firms ................................................... 123
Table of Tables
Table 1- 1: Classification of Chinese Two- wheelers ....................................................... 10
Table 1- 2: Pros and Cons of E2Ws ............................................................................... 14
Table 2- 1: E2W History in China a ................................................................................. 37
Table 2- 2: Lifetime of E2W battery vs. time ................................................................... 40
Table 2- 3: Comparison of Brush to Brushless Motors ................................................... 40
Table 2- 4: E2W style and price range ........................................................................... 43
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Table 4- 1: Electric two- wheeler power system characteristics ....................................... 77
Table 4- 2: Battery Applications 1 ................................................................................... 79
Table 4- 3: 20 and 12Ah VRLA module characteristics of various manufacturers 1 ......... 87
Table 4- 4: Performance of 12V- 12Ah VRLA Battery Modules from 4 Battery
Manufacturers ( C/ 2.4 discharge rate) ............................................................................ 88
Table 4- 5: Characteristics of Li- ion modules from various manufacturers...................... 89
Table 4- 6: Comparison of Battery Types ( with Assumptions) ........................................ 91
Table 4- 7: Performance characteristic of Li- ion batteries with various cathode materials 1
............................................................................................................................... ...... 95
Table 5- 1: Comparison of Open- Modular vs. Closed- Integral Industry Structure ......... 106
Table 5- 2: E2W Modules and Standardized Options ................................................... 110
Table 5- 3: Rankings of Driving and Resisting Forces .................................................. 119
Table 5- 4: Specifications of Electric Vehicle Made by E2W Makers ............................ 123
Table 5- 5: Cost comparison of Battery Systems for E2W and EVs.............................. 124
Table 8- 1: Cost of Common Transport Modes in China ( USD cents/ km) ..................... 142
List of Abbreviations
2WV – two- wheel vehicle
AGM – absorptive glass mat
BSEB – bicycle- style electric bike
C- I – closed- integral
CO – carbon monoxide
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CBA – Chinese Bicycle Association
E2W – electric two- wheeler
E2W – electric bicycle or scooter ( electric two- wheeler)
EV – three or four- wheel passenger vehicle
FFA – force- field analysis
FLA – flooded lead- acid
GDP – gross domestic product
GHG – greenhouse gas
km – kilometre
km/ l – kilometres per litre
kWh – kilowatt- hour
Li- ion – lithium ion
LPG – liquefied petroleum gas
m – meter
M2W – motorized two- wheeler
Min – minute
MJ – mega joule
Mpg – miles per gallon
Mtoe – million tons of oil equivalent
NMV – non- motorized vehicle
NOx – nitrogen oxide
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OEM – original equipment manufacturer
O- M – open- modular
R& D – research and development
RMB – ren min bi ( Chinese yuan)
SO2 – sulfur dioxide
SOE – state- owned enterprise
SSEB -- scooter- style electric bike
T& C – transportation and communications
USD – US dollar
V – volt
VRLA – valve- regulated lead acid
W – watt
W/ l – watt per litre
W/ kg – watt per kilogram
Wh – watt- hours
WTW – well- to- wheel
1
1 INTRODUCTION
One billion cars— this is the projected size of the world’s vehicle fleet in just 20 years,
and a significant increase from the 700 million light- duty vehicles on the world’s roads
today [ 1]. The majority of this vehicle growth over the next two decades will occur in non-
OECD countries, with the largest growth expected in China and India. The fuel of these
future cars is therefore of critical importance, not only to the health of the hundreds of
millions who dwell in the densely packed cities of these countries, but to the world
community as a whole in preventing global climate change and its potentially calamitous
effects.
This dissertation examines the use and future growth of a particular transportation
vehicle technology that is experiencing unprecedented success in one corner of the
developing world. This application, roughly the price of a cell phone, could have far
reaching implications on the future fuel and powertrain of automobiles throughout the
entire world. The application is the Chinese electric two- wheeler ( E2W).
In this Chapter, the context for this analysis is set by describing China’s transportation
landscape and the changes it has undergone over the past ten years. E2Ws are
introduced and compared to their close cousin, the gasoline- powered two- wheeler ( G2W
or motorcycles). The research questions, objectives, and scope of the analysis are
explained, and a brief synopsis of each chapter is provided.
1.1 China’s Changing Transportation Landscape: 1996 vs. 2006
In 1996, China was in the midst of an unprecedented period of rapid economic
development and social change. 70% of China’s 1.2 billion people lived in the
2
countryside; though with state- owned enterprises privatizing, housing policies relaxing,
and incomes rising, urbanization was well underway.
As cities grew, so did demand for transportation. To accommodate this demand,
bicycles, public transit, and especially motorcycle use were experiencing tremendous
growth. Motorcycle sales had been doubling each year for five straight years. The
automobile industry, however, was still in an infant stage, producing slightly less than a
half million passenger cars per year. GDP per capita was only $ 830/ yr ( 2006 US$) [ 2].
For every thousand persons, 360 owned bicycles, 17 owned motorcycles, and only three
owned a personal car. This would soon change as the trends of urbanization and
motorization continued over the following decade.
During this same year, Shanghai passed a groundbreaking regulation, becoming the first
of many cities to suspend license granting to gas- powered motorcycles downtown due to
deteriorating air quality accompanying rapid growth in motorcycle use. The mayor
declared to " gradually eliminate gas- powered assist vehicle and actively develop and
promote electro- assist technology" [ 3].
By 2006, China had changed dramatically. The proportion of people living in the
countryside fell to 57%. For every thousand persons, 350 owned bicycles, 90 owned
motorcycles, and ten owned a personal car. Perhaps most surprising however was the
emergence of an entirely new mode of transportation virtually non- existent in 1996: the
electric two- wheeler, owned by 30 people out of 1,000.
Figure 1- 1 shows the growth in motorized vehicle sales over the past decade [ 4- 7]. By
2006, annual sales of E2Ws equaled those of G2Ws. In terms of sales revenue, E2Ws
accounted for $ 4.6 billion, compared to $ 19.2 billion for G2W ( includes exports) [ 8, 9].
3
Figure 1- 1: Motorized Vehicle Sales in China
Vehicle ownership statistics may underestimate the degree of E2W use in China’s cities.
Based on limited surveying in ten cities ( small, medium, and large), E2Ws make up 28%
of total two- wheeler traffic on average, compared to 57% bicycles and 15% G2Ws
( Figure 1- 2). 1
1 Data was obtained by measuring vehicle flow at various intersections throughout each city. Total sample
size: 8,297 ( Hangzhou 364, Chengdu 487, Nanjing 224, Jinan 356, Xian 193, Shanghai- city 3,226,
Shanghai- outer suburbs 1,270, Tai An 219, Weifang 41, Tianjin 976, Shijiazhuang 600, Beijing 341). This
average only represents 11 cities throughout China and thus should not be taken as a true national average.
3 Sustainable transportation, as defined by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development means
“ the ability to move more freely, gain access, communicate, trade and establish relationships without
sacrificing other essential human or ecological requirements” ( WBCSD, Mobility 2030 Report, 2004)
4
Figure 1- 2: Observed 2- wheel Vehicle Proportions in Chinese Cities
To define where E2Ws fit in the Chinese transition to greater personal mobility, today’s
E2W users are mostly yesterday’s bicycle users, public transit users, and ( a smaller
portion) motorcycles users. Survey results show that 70- 80% of E2W users had
switched from bicycle and public transport [ 10, 11]; it is unclear how many of these users
used to own motorcycles since they were banned several years ago. Many of these
E2W users would have likely chosen a motorcycle over an E2W had motorcycles not
been banned. Surveys show that most of today’s E2W users are also tomorrow’s E2W
users, though a small fraction are tomorrow’s automobile users.
5
Urban Transportation in China
Urban transportation is a particular challenge in Chinese cities because of their high
population density, relatively low income, and a diverse mix of motorized and non-motorized
transportation modes of multiple sizes and speeds. These factors result in
low- quality fuels and motorized vehicles used in dense concentrations, resulting in
serious health impacts due to air pollution, a subject covered extensively by Walsh [ 12].
By 2006, air pollution was causing 350,000- 400,000 pre- mature deaths per year, as
estimated by the World Bank and Chinese State Environmental Protection Agency [ 13].
While transportation accounted for a small fraction of energy use in China ( 7.5% in 2006
[ 14]), it is responsible for a large portion of the air pollution in cities. According to one
study in 2000, mobile sources were “ contributing approximately 45- 60% percent of the
NOx emissions and about 85% of the CO emissions in typical Chinese cities” [ 15]. In
China, emissions from gasoline powered vehicles are higher than in developing
countries due to poor quality fuel, inferior vehicle engines, and low use of emission
control technologies like catalytic converters [ 39]. A study measuring pedestrian
exposure to VOCs, PM10, and CO in urban Guangzhou indicate that automobile
emissions are likely the major source [ 37].
Zegras and Gakenheimer ( 2006) frame the issues of urban transportation in developing
countries using two key terms: accessibility- “ the ability to reach the daily needs and
wants necessary to survive and thrive”, and mobility- “ the movement from place to place”
[ 17]. Accessibility is the goal of most people; mobility is what provides it. Different forms
of mobility ( e. g. car vs. bicycle) provide varying levels of accessibility. These different
forms also create different levels of negative externalities ( e. g. pollution,
congestion, etc.). The key challenge of sustainable urban transportation systems is to
maximize accessibility while minimizing the negative externalities associated with these
6
different forms of mobility. According to Schipper and Ng ( 2007), transportation in
Chinese cities is characterized by high levels of congestion, fatalities, pollution, and
greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions [ 16]. Rapid urbanization is adding further stress to
transportation systems in cities that aren’t able to keep up with the increased demand for
road space and public transit.
While two- wheel vehicles are still the dominant transport mode in China, motorization
( i. e. the transition to personal cars) will continue to rise with income. At 8% GDP growth,
vehicle ownership is projected to increase to 29 million by 2020 [ 12]. Personal car
growth will result in a large increase in oil consumption and CO2 emission, which has
been modeled in He et. al ( 2005) [ 18]. Motorization and its costs and benefits to China
are discussed extensively in C. A. E and N. R. C ( 2001) [ 2]. This study, undertaken by
experts from both China and the US, concludes that while increased motorization will
bring many economic benefits, it will also bring many challenges to social,
environmental, and economic systems. Schipper and Ng ( 2007) point out that rapid
motorization in China, in contrast to the slower motorization which occurred in developed
countries throughout the world, poses more risks because of high population density and
an existing urban transport foundation based on non- motorized transport [ 16].
Many researchers have proposed solutions to the unique challenges of urban
transportation in China, though they are often difficult and costly to implement. Zhou and
Sperling ( 2001) conclude that two promising options are “ providing an array of high-quality
options to travelers” and “ special lanes and other infrastructure to accommodate
vehicles such as buses, minicars, and bicycles …( in order to) save money and improve
traffic circulation” [ 19]. Another solution is the substitution of gasoline powered vehicles
with electric vehicles, which could reduce oil consumption, CO2 emissions, and other
negative externalities associated with motorization [ 20].
7
1.2 E2Ws Role in Sustainable Transportation
Without question, urbanization and motorization in China have created significant
improvements in people’s quality of life and productivity. However, they have
simultaneously created some serious problems affecting future growth and prosperity:
congestion, growing energy demand and oil dependence, and air pollution. On a global
scale, they are also accelerating the rate of climate change.
As part of the solution to these problems, China is trying to develop a transportation
system that is sustainable economically, socially, and environmentally. 3 Reducing
pollution from vehicles and improving their efficiency is one means of achieving this.
E2Ws emerged in the past decade as an alternative- fuel vehicle with unique
characteristics to address some of the aforementioned challenges. In terms of air
pollution and energy use, E2Ws have an advantage over gasoline- powered motorcycles,
as shown in the following two figures [ 11, 21, 22].
8
Figure 1- 3: Air Emissions of E2Ws vs. Motorcycles
The figure shows air pollutants emissions from motorcycles are higher for all air
pollutants except for SO2. E2Ws have high SO2 emissions since 75% of electricity in
China is coal- fired ( Cherry 2007).
Gasoline powered two- wheelers use 2- 7 times more energy than E2Ws on a well- to-wheel
basis. The main difference in energy use is at the tank- to- wheels stage, where
motorcycles expend 75% of their total well- to- wheels energy per km [ 22]. In contrast,
9
E2Ws consume the majority of their energy in the well- to- tank stage during production
and transmission of electricity [ 11, 23].
Figure 1- 4 shows the well- to- wheel energy consumption comparison for an E2W and a
G2W with similar power. 6
Figure 1- 4: Well- to- wheels Energy Consumption of E2Ws and Motorcycles
Cherry 2007 has completed a thorough analysis in his PhD dissertation on the
environmental and mobility pros and cons of E2Ws versus buses and bicycles in China.
He finds that “ while E2Ws have some problems that need to be addressed ( namely
excessive lead recycling and management of batteries); they provide large benefits and
6 The G2W used in this analysis is a 30cc high– efficiency gasoline- pedal bike with claimed fuel efficiency of
70km/ l ( 160 mpg) ( Sansen, www. zj- sanxin. com. cn). Though there are very few of these used in China, it
provides a more “ apples- to- apples” energy comparison by accounting for the power difference between
G2Ws and E2Ws.
10
can be a successful strategy toward a sustainable transportation future.” Cherry
quantifies the travel time and accessibility advantages of E2Ws compared to buses and
bicycle. He provides data on roadway fatalities of E2Ws vs automobiles to show that
E2Ws have lower fatality rates per vehicle- km traveled. He calculates the life- cycle
energy use, CO2 and NOx emissions of E2Ws vs. buses and bicycle. While E2Ws
provide energy and air quality benefits compared to public transit and automobiles, their
lead emissions rate is significantly worse due to high rates of lead loss in China’s lead
industry. He concludes that the benefits of E2Ws are substantial and that government
could address their largest disadvantage, lead pollution resulting from battery production
and disposal, to push improved recycling and the evolution to better batteries.
1.3 Background on Motorized Two- wheelers in China
There are many different types and sizes of two- wheelers around the world. Table 1- 1
classifies the two- wheelers types most commonly used in China according to their key
attributes.
Table 1- 1: Classification of Chinese Two- wheelers
Class Types Power
( engine
size)
Top
speed
( km/ hr)
Fuel
Use
(/ 100km)
Range
( km)
Picture
Bicycle
10- 15 n/ a n/ a
Electric two-wheeler
( E2W)
Electric
bicycle
( BSEB)
0.25-
0.35
kW
20- 30 1.2- 1.5
kWh
30- 40
11
Electric
scooter
( SSEB)
0.3- 0.5
kW
30- 40 1.5kWh 30- 40
Gasoline
moped/
Scooter
3- 5 kW
( 50-
125cc)
50- 80 2- 3L [ 24] 120-
200
Motorcycle
Gasoline
motorcycle
4- 6kW
( 100-
125 cc)
60- 80 2- 3L 120-
200
Electric Two- wheelers
E2Ws are a category of vehicles in China that includes two- wheel bikes propelled by
human pedaling supplemented by electrical power from a storage battery ( bicycle style
E2Ws, or BSEB), and low- speed scooters propelled almost solely by electricity ( scooter
style E2Ws, or SSEB). Most rely exclusively on electric power, not human pedaling. In
most cities, electric bikes are allowed to operate in the bicycle lane and are considered a
bicycle from a regulatory perspective ( i. e. helmets and drivers licenses are not required).
The technology of each type of E2W is similar. The main components of an E2W include
a hub motor, controller and battery. BSEBs typically have 36V batteries and 180- 250W
motors. SSEBs typically have larger 48V batteries and higher- powered motors 350-
500W. Electric bikes are regulated not to exceed 20km/ hr, but many, especially scooters,
can travel at speeds in excess of that limit and some are advertised to go 40km/ hr. They
can vary in speed from 25- 40 km/ hr and range of 25- 50 km on a single charge, which
requires 6- 8 hours. Electric bike batteries are recharged from a standard electrical outlet
12
and thus require no new infrastructure. The majority of E2W users recharge them at
home during the night when electricity is cheaper. In urban areas, this typically means
carrying either the battery or the entire E2W into a multi- level apartment building. It is
also common to see bikes being charged during the day outside ground- floor shops
using standard electrical outlets.
E2Ws have become a popular transportation mode for Chinese consumers because
they provide convenient yet relatively inexpensive form of private mobility and are thus
an attractive alternative to public transit or regular bicycling. The following figures
compare the cost ( USD cents/ km) and in- use speed of E2Ws vs. other modes.
Figure 1- 5: Cost of Common Transport Modes in China
This figure shows the key cost advantage of E2Ws over motorcycles is their lower
operating cost due to cheaper, more efficiently used fuel, even after accounting for
13
battery replacement cost. 7 While E2Ws also have a lower initial cost than motorcycles,
motorcycles presumably have longer lifetime thus levelized vehicle purchase cost is
roughly equal.
Not surprisingly, E2Ws are faster than bicycles, as shown in the figure below.
Motorcycle speeds ( labeled “ LPG scooter” in figure) are even higher in free flow
conditions. All modes approach the same speed when flow is congested.
Figure 1- 6: Speed vs. Traffic Flow for Two- wheelers in Shanghai ( Ma 2007) [ 25]
E2Ws are promoted by national and many local governments due to their low energy
consumption and zero tail- pipe emissions, especially important in China’s congested
urban areas. In recent years however, a handful of cities have decided to ban electric
7 Assumptions for this cost analysis are provided in Chapter 2 and the Appendix.
14
bikes, stating reasons related to decreased safety and traffic flow efficiency when mixed
with engine- powered cars and trucks. Cities like Guangzhou have banned all motorized
two- wheelers in favor of public transportation, bicycles, and cars. Some cities choose to
neither support nor ban them. E2Ws as an urban travel mode have both positive and
negative attributes, the main ones listed in Table 1- 2 below.
Table 1- 2: Pros and Cons of E2Ws
Pros Cons
“ 0” tail- pipe emissions
75% of electricity in China produced from
coal ( Cherry 06)
Energy efficient
( 70- 80 km/ kWh)
Lead- emissions from battery production &
recycling.
Inexpensive Potential reduction in traffic flow efficiency
compared with public transit
Can be “ refueled” at home/ work Safety concerns when mixed with vehicles.
( quiet, fast, heavy, poor brakes)
Solid waste from E2W operation is significantly higher than for motorcycles. A life- cycle
emissions study comparing an E2W to a motor- bike concluded that an E2W generates
2.7g/ km of solid waste ( 63% from coal combustion and 14% from battery disposal)
compared with 1g/ km for the motor- bike [ 21]. It estimated that the lead emissions from
E2Ws are 0.05- 0.10g/ km due to inefficiencies in the dispersed, small- scale lead
production and recycling process [ 11, 26].
15
E2W Issues
Traffic safety is perhaps the most important issue facing E2W growth. In November
2006, Guangzhou became the third city in China to ban E2Ws ( behind Fuzhou and
Zhuhai), under advice from the traffic management bureau citing traffic safety concerns
[ 27]. Based on conversations with traffic police, this is mainly due to their erratic driving
behavior, which impacts vehicle drivers and traffic efficiency. Their high speed, weight,
and silent nature also poses a threat to bicyclists riding in the non- motorized vehicle
lane. Thus, automobile owners and bicyclists often perceive E2Ws negatively. The
safety issue of E2Ws mixed in traffic is a key consideration in the drafting of new
National E2W Standards, which are under revision and under intense debate.
Electric bikes are also not the most efficient users of scarce road space. While E2Ws
can move more people per lane than cars, buses move more people per lane than
E2Ws [ 28].
In Taiwan, electric two- wheelers were promoted between 1996 and 2003 as a means of
improving urban air quality, though that failed. Scientists and engineers who developed
the electric scooter in Taiwan discuss their experience and some of the difficulties
encountered regarding e- scooter introduction in [ 29]. The main problem was that their
scooters were too expensive due to their high power and energy requirements.
Gasoline Scooters and Motorcycles
Motorcycles in China include three main styles: scooters style, underbone style, and
traditional motorcycle style ( or horseback type); there are very few mopeds. The
16
following classification from Wikipedia is helpful in characterizing the wide range in
motorcycle types:
“ Mopeds are small, light, inexpensive, efficient rides for getting around town.
Usually started by pedaling ( motorcycle + pedals = moped). Scooters are
motorcycles with a step- through frame and generally smaller wheels than
those of a traditional motorcycle. Can be ridden without straddling any part of
the bike. Underbones are small motorcycles which are a crossover between a
scooter and a true motorcycle with step- through frame, popular in Southeast
Asia. Standard motorcycles ( Horseback- type) are characterized by tear-shaped
fuel tanks located at the top and just behind the instrument panel,
whereas the fuel tank for an underbone motorcycle is located under the seat.”
[ 30]
Underbones are also known as “ cub” style, since they are based on the original cub
motorcycle introduced by Honda in the 60s ( verify). LPG scooters are popular in
Shanghai because they are exempt from the city- side motorcycle ban. This type is
excluded from the analysis however, since they are exclusive to Shanghai. Scooter style
is usually equipped with automatic transmission [ 22].
Motorcycle engine type and style has changed since the early 1990s, as documented in
Ohara ( 2006) [ 6]. During first half of 1990s, the most prevalent motorcycles were two-stroke,
110cc or below, and horseback type ( standard). In latter half of 90s, the market
share of 4- strokes scooters with 125cc or greater engine size increased sharply. From
2000 onwards, underbone frame type have gained increasing popularity, and are the
most common in Southeast Asia ( especially ones based on the Honda C100). By 2002,
there were only a few models of 2- stroke motorcycles available due to tightening of
17
environmental regulations. Market share in China by displacement in 2002 was: 125cc
(~ 45%), 110cc or less (~ 28%), 50cc or less (< 8%). Market share by type was: 4- stroke
standard motorcycle type (~ 37%), 4- stroke scooter type (~ 30%), Underbone ( 18%). 2-
strokes ( MC or scooter style) (~ 11%). By 2002, motorcycle engines had converged to
three dominant models: C100, CG125, and GY6, all of which are 4- strokes.
The four largest national markets for motorcycles in 2006 in order of annual sales
volume were China ( 14.6 million), India ( 8.2 million), Indonesia ( 4.6 million), and Vietnam
( 2.3 million) [ 31]. In terms of vehicle ownership in 2002, there was one motorcycle for
every two people in Taiwan, four people in both Thailand and Malaysia, seven people in
Vietnam, 15 people in Indonesia, 16 in China 8 , and 63 people in Malaysia. Motorcycle
ownership in rural households has been growing faster than in urban household since
1998, with 32 per 100 rural households compared with 24/ 100 urban households in 2003
likely due to the motorcycle bans in many cities which also started in the late 90s [ 6]. In
2006, China produced half of the world’s motorcycles [ 32]. Most exports from China are
sold to the low- end market ( Southeast Asia and Africa) [ 6].
1.4 E2Ws Around the World:
The dominant majority of the world’s E2Ws ( 96%) are concentrated in China. There are
other small but growing E2W markets in Japan, Europe, and more recently, in India
( Figure 1- 7) [ 5].
8 Based on ownership of 25 for every 100 households ( Ohara 2006) and an assumed household size of 4.
18
Figure 1- 7: Worldwide E2W Sales, 2006
After China, the next largest E2W market is Japan with annual sales of 270,000 bikes/ yr
in 2006 and 13% average annual growth since 2000 [ 33]. Pedelecs ( a style of E2W
driven primarily by human- power with battery assist) are the dominant type of E2W.
Most pedelec E2Ws use Ni- MH or Li- ion batteries. Battery capacity ranges from 0.2- 0.6
kWh, motor size ranges from 150- 250W, and prices range from $ 700- 2,000.
In Europe, the market is estimated at 190,000 bikes/ yr in 2006 [ 34]. Electric bikes in
Europe are also mainly pedelec style. Sales in the Netherlands are greatest due to
extensive bicycle infrastructure and deep- rooted biking culture. Germany and Belgium
are the next largest markets for pedelecs.
19
India’s electric bike market is small, but forecasts for growth are optimistic [ 5]. In other
developing countries throughout Southeast Asia like Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia,
where two- wheelers are the dominant form of transportation, E2Ws have not gained a
significant market share. This may be attributed to the fact that valve regulated lead- acid
battery performance ( i. e. range and lifetime) degrades quickly in areas where
temperatures are very high throughout the year, or very low [ 35]. Gasoline- powered
motorbikes are the dominant mode in the larger cities of these countries. In the United
States, the very limited electric bike market is limited mainly to recreational riders who
rely on the assistance of the electric motor out of physical necessity. The E2W is not a
common commuter vehicle in most cities because commute distance are long, bicycle
infrastructure non- existent, and most bicycle commuters do so primarily for recreation
[ 36].
1.5 Research Objective and Research Questions
The objective of this research is to determine the causes for the adoption of E2Ws in
China and how it will impact the future success of electric vehicle transportation in China
and throughout the world. To achieve this, the following research questions are posed:
1. Why have E2Ws been so successful in China?
2. What are the factors driving and resisting future E2W market growth?
3. If E2W markets grow, what effects will that have on battery technology, and EV
technology?
20
While clean, energy efficient two wheeled vehicles ( 2WVs) are important for urban air
quality in the short term, the critical long- term issue is the development of clean, energy
efficient automobiles due to the rapid pace of motorization in China and other non- OECD
countries. Thus, a key long- term large- scale benefit of increasing E2W use could be to
hasten the adoption of EVs due to the technology similarities between E2Ws and small
EVs.
A widespread shift to electric vehicles would have a positive impact on air quality, energy
use, petroleum dependence, and carbon emissions, even more so if the electricity were
made from natural gas and renewable sources, rather than coal. Air pollution would shift
from high- density urban areas to lower density suburbs where power plants are sited.
While overall SO2 emissions would increase since 75% of China’s grid electricity is
produced from coal, NOx and CO levels from gasoline combustion would drop. A shift to
electric vehicles may reduce mortality and health impacts from lower overall PM, NOx
and CO emissions and lower exposure to emissions. In Beijing, a city with ~ 2 million
vehicles and notoriously poor air quality, PM emissions from vehicles during summer
months were found to outweigh PM emissions from coal and biofuel burning [ 38].
Determining the causes of the rapid adoption of E2Ws in China is important because the
lessons revealed may be relevant to other countries facing air quality problems from
gasoline powered two- wheelers. Nations such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with
poor air quality and high motorized and non- motorized two- wheel vehicle ( 2WV)
populations may be able to improve their air quality by learning from China’s experience
in adopting E2Ws.
Understanding the forces driving and resisting future E2W growth and their root causes
is important for policy makers in Chinese cities regulating transportation. This analysis
21
can be used to help them identify the key leverage points for increasing or decreasing
E2W use, depending on their objective. Identifying these forces may also help cities
wishing to reduce the negative problems associated with E2Ws.
1.6 Scope and Limitations
This study analyzes the causes of the adoption of E2Ws and the impact this adoption
might have on battery technology development and future vehicle electrification. Other
important metrics like air quality, energy use, and accessibility have been evaluated by
Cherry ( 2007) and Ma ( 2007) and thus are not duplicated in this analysis. This overall
research objective is complemented by substantial research by colleagues Chris Cherry
from UC- Berkeley and Chaktan Ma from Tsinghua University.
Effects of E2Ws on mobility, including travel behavior, safety, transit use, and vehicle
purchase choice, are examined in Chapter 3 in order to better understand forces driving
the transition to E2W. Cherry ( 2007) and Ma ( 2007) have done more extensive analysis
on important metrics like safety, accessibility, travel time, and traffic flow with other
vehicles thus they are not duplicated in this analysis. Environmental effects such as
impacts on air quality, energy use, and lead emissions have also been analyzed in
Cherry ( 2007).
Limitations
22
Surveys and other data collected on E2Ws are limited to China’s urban areas, where the
majority of E2Ws are located. This study does not include analysis of E2Ws use in rural
areas, and includes only limited analysis in suburban areas though a deeper analysis of
these markets would be very interesting since they are growing rapidly. Larger, higher-power
E2W designs are being marketed in suburban and rural areas due in part to
longer travel distances and frequent cargo/ passenger loads.
Growth in the E2W market could affect more than just the development of battery
technology. It could also affect the development of key electric- drive components such
as motors, controllers, and chargers. The study, however, focuses mainly on E2W
impacts on battery technology because it is a key limiting factor in rapid proliferation of
electric vehicle technology.
In Chapter 4, Nickel- metal hydride technology is excluded from the analysis. Only 3% of
E2Ws produced in China use this type, whereas 87% and 10% of E2Ws use VRLA and
Li- ion respectively.
Another limitation of this study on the causes of E2W growth in China is that it does not
examine why E2W growth did not occur in other countries in Asia. Examining the
similarities and differences between countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and
India to China in terms of transportation, economic development, and urban form would
likely provide some useful insights about why E2Ws were successful in China only. Time
limitations prevented the author from conducting this analysis.
1.7 Dissertation Synopsis and Methodology
23
To understand the E2W growth phenomenon in China requires a unique approach
intersecting several fields of study because it involves many stakeholders operating in a
highly dynamic environment. E2W growth affects and is affected by a complex system of
stakeholders such as equipment manufacturing industries, local and state regulatory
agencies, and the public ( both E2W users and non- users). Growth has occurred amidst
rapid changes in urban form, technology development, and economic growth. Thus, an
inter- disciplinary approach is used.
The inter- disciplinary approach of this dissertation draws from engineering,
anthropology, and organizational behavior, using methods ranging from on- street
surveying of E2W users and interviews with E2W plant managers, to laboratory testing
of E2W batteries. Since the available literature on this subject is limited, these methods
are all the more valuable for collecting original data. Integrating these methods together
enables a more complete view of the E2W growth phenomenon, why it happened, and
where it is likely to lead.
The following synopsis describes the purpose, methodologies used, and key conclusions
from the body of the dissertation, chapters 2- 5. Methodologies are explained in greater
detail in each chapter. Chapters 2,3, and 4 are each papers that have been written with
co- authors and published in refereed journals. Their publication information, co- authors,
and abstracts are presented below.
Chapter 2: The Transition To Electric Bikes In China: History And Key Reasons
For Rapid Growth ( published)
Published in: Transportation, 2007, 34( 3), pp. 301- 318
24
Co- authors:
CHAKTAN MA,
Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University
CHRISTOPHER CHERRY,
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Berkeley,
Abstract
Annual electric bike ( E2W) sales in China grew from 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in
2005. This rapid transition from human- powered bicycles, buses and gasoline- powered
scooters to an all- electric vehicle/ fuel technology system is special in the evolution of
transportation technology and, thus far, unique to China. We examine how and why
E2Ws developed so quickly in China with particular focus on the key technical,
economic, and political factors involved. This case study provides important insights to
policy makers in China and abroad on how timely regulatory policy can change the
purchase choice of millions and create a new mode of transportation. These lessons are
especially important to China as it embarks on a large- scale transition to personal
vehicles, but also to other countries seeking more sustainable forms of transportation.
25
Chapter 3: Electric Two- Wheelers In China: Effect On Travel Behavior, Mode Shift,
And User Safety Perceptions In A Medium- Sized City ( published)
Published in: Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research
Board, 2007
Co- authors:
CHAKTAN MA
Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University
XINMIAO YANG
Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University,
CHRISTOPHER CHERRY
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley
Abstract
Despite rapid economic growth in China over the past decade and rise in personal car
ownership, most Chinese still rely on two- wheeled vehicles ( 2WV) or public transport for
commuting. The majority of these 2WVs are bicycles. In recent years, concern about
poor air quality in urban areas and rising energy costs have caused cities to ban
gasoline- powered scooters in city centers. Simultaneously, a new 2WV mode emerged
to fill the void: the electric two- wheeler.
26
This shift to E2Ws is occurring at rapid pace throughout China, especially in its cities.
E2W sales reached 10 million per year in 2005 as more bike and public transit users
shifted to this mode. City planners and policy makers are undecided on how to plan for
and regulate E2Ws because it is not yet clear what effect they will have on travel
behavior, public transportation use, and safety. To begin to understand these effects, the
authors have surveyed bike and E2W users in Shijiazhuang, a medium- sized city with
particularly high two- wheeled vehicle ( 2WV) use, to identify differences in travel
characteristics and attitudes.
We conclude the following: ( partial list)
E2Ws are enabling people to commute longer distances. This has important implications
on energy use, accessibility and urban expansion of cities.
People under- served by public transportation are shifting to E2W.
Women feel safer crossing intersections on an E2W compared to regular bike, however
they have strong reservations about increasing E2W speed capability.
Chapter 4: Lead- Acid And Lithium- Ion Batteries For The Chinese Electric Bike
Market And Implications On Future Technology Advancement ( published)
Published in: Journal of Power Sources, 2007, In Press, Corrected Proof
Co- authors:
ANDREW F. BURKE
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis
27
XUEZHE WEI
Tongji University, School of Automotive Studies
Abstract
China has been experiencing a rapid increase in battery- powered personal
transportation since the late 90’ s due to the strong growth of the E2W market. Annual
sales in China reached 17 million bikes/ yr in 2006. E2W growth has been in part due to
improvements in rechargeable valve- regulated lead acid ( VRLA) battery technology, the
primary battery type for E2Ws. Further improvements in technology and a transition
from VRLA to lithium- ion ( Li- ion) batteries will impact the future market growth of this
transportation mode in China and abroad.
Battery performance and cost for these two types are compared to assess the feasibility
of a shift from VRLA to Li- ion battery E2Ws. The requirements for batteries used in
E2Ws are assessed. A widespread shift from VRLA to Li- ion batteries seems improbable
in the near future for the mass market given the cost premium relative to the
performance advantages of Li- ion batteries. As both battery technologies gain more real-world
use in E2W applications, both will improve. Cell variability is a key problematic
area to be addressed with VRLA technology. For Li- ion technology, safety and cost are
the key problem areas that are being addressed through the use of new cathode
materials.
28
Chapter 5: The Future Of Electric Two- Wheelers And Electric Vehicles In China
Submitted for publication, acceptance pending
Co- authors:
JOAN OGDEN
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis
DANIEL SPERLING
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis
ANDREW BURKE
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis
Abstract
Electric two- wheeled vehicles ( E2Ws) in China are the most successful electric- drive
vehicles in the world. If E2W success continues, it may accelerate the development of
batteries and larger electric vehicles. We analyze the technological and market evolution
of E2Ws. Force- field analysis method is used to identify forces driving and resisting
future E2W market growth, the root causes behind these forces, and important insights
about the likelihood of a wide shift to larger three- and four- wheel electric vehicles ( EVs).
We conclude that the key forces driving E2W market growth are: improvements in E2W
and battery technology due to product modularity and modular industry structure, strong
local regulatory support in the form of gasoline- powered motorcycle bans and loose
29
enforcement of E2W standards, and deteriorating bus public transit service. The largest
forces resisting E2W market growth are strong demand for gasoline- powered
motorcycles, and bans on E2Ws due to safety concerns in urban areas. The balance of
these forces appears to favor E2W market growth. This growth will likely drive vehicle
electrification through continued innovation in batteries and motors, the switch from lead-acid
to Li- ion batteries in E2Ws, and the development of larger E2Ws and EVs. There
are however strong forces resisting vehicle electrification, including battery cost,
charging infrastructure, and inherent complications with large battery systems.
30
2 THE TRANSITION TO ELECTRIC BIKES IN CHINA: HISTORY AND KEY
REASONS FOR RAPID GROWTH
Abstract
Annual electric bike ( E2W) sales in China grew from 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in
2005. This rapid transition from human- powered bicycles, buses and gasoline- powered
scooters to an all- electric vehicle/ fuel technology system is special in the evolution of
transportation technology and, thus far, unique to China. We examine how and why
E2Ws developed so quickly in China with particular focus on the key technical,
economic, and political factors involved. This case study provides important insights to
policy makers in China and abroad on how timely regulatory policy can change the
purchase choice of millions and create a new mode of transportation. These lessons are
especially important to China as it embarks on a large- scale transition to personal
vehicles, but also to other countries seeking more sustainable forms of transportation.
Keywords: E2W, electric bicycle, electric scooter, China, two- wheel vehicle
2.1 Introduction
Electric bikes are a category of vehicles in China that includes two- wheel bikes propelled
by human pedaling supplemented by electrical power from a storage battery, and low-speed
scooters propelled almost solely by electricity ( usually with perfunctory pedals to
satisfy legal definitions). These vehicles have become a popular transportation mode for
31
Chinese consumers because they provide an inexpensive and convenient form of
private mobility and are thus an attractive alternative to public transit or regular bicycling.
They are promoted by national and many local governments due to their low energy
consumption and zero tail- pipe emissions, especially important in China’s congested
urban areas. E2Ws are gaining an increasing share of two- wheeled transportation
throughout China, and in some cities like Chengdu and Suzhou, have even surpassed
the bicycle mode share.
Understanding the transition to E2Ws is important for guiding the future of personal
mobility in China and other developing countries. First, China is on the brink of large-scale
motorization ( i. e. people buying cars). Understanding how and why a large- scale
technology system ( E2Ws) is successfully adopted may provide insight and a foundation
for a smoother transition to cleaner vehicle/ fuel systems for personal cars as
motorization continues. Secondly, many other developing nations in Southeast Asia with
high two- wheel vehicle ( 2WV) such as India and Vietnam use are confronting the same
air quality and energy issues as China. These countries may be able to learn from
China’s experience in adopting E2Ws.
Methodology
The literature on E2Ws in Mainland China thus far is relatively limited. Thus this report
relies extensively on first- hand interviews. Using a 35- question survey, we interviewed
23 electric bike original equipment manufacturers ( OEMs) and component suppliers
( including 4 factory visits), 5 E2W dealers, 12 E2W customers and 1 government
representative. We asked E2W OEMs and suppliers questions related to their products,
manufacturing, the E2W market, suppliers, costs, quality, government regulations, and
32
research and development. We asked dealers about maintenance issues, E2W market
demographics, and the impact of government regulations on sales. We asked customers
about costs of owning and operating, usage behavior, and their attitudes towards E2Ws
versus competing travel modes.
For data on consumer travel behavior and attitudes, we conducted three surveys of over
1,000 E2W users in Shijiazhuang, Kunming, and Shanghai. An in depth analysis of the
results of this survey is found in [ 40] and [ 28]; relevant results are reported in this paper.
Surveys were conducted in these cities to represent medium and large cities with high
E2W use.
Other data and historic information have been collected from industry reports, media,
trade journals, and academic studies.
The Chinese E2W Industry
The Chinese E2W industry, with minimal governmental financial support and industry
supervision, has developed into the largest producer of E2Ws worldwide. The industry
grew from under 10 original equipment manufacturers ( OEMs) in 1998 to 481 ( according
to the official estimate) by 2005 [ 41]. Unofficial estimates for the number of OEMs range
from 1,000- 5,000. 1 E2W OEMs range in size from as small as 1000’ s bikes/ yr production
to 300,000/ yr. Most produce between 10,000- 50,000 E2Ws a year, but there are six
companies with an annual production of over 200,000 E2Ws.
One reason for the large number of companies in this industry is that component
technology is mature, the network of suppliers is vast, and manufacturing is relatively
simple. 2 Profit margins of eight OEMs average at only 6%. There is also considerable
33
theft of intellectual property by the small to medium companies according to interviews
with the managers from larger e- companies. Because of the low barriers to entry and lax
intellectual property ( IP) protection, there are many unlicensed E2W makers selling
poor- quality but low- cost E2Ws. Several OEMs predict that there will be considerable
consolidation over the next few years and the number of E2W makers will drop
significantly.
The companies that currently make E2Ws come from a variety of industrial backgrounds.
Some are established companies producing bicycles, motorcycles, electrical appliances,
and even toy cars, which shifted to making E2Ws when demand grew. Some of these
companies are over 60 years old, but most did not start producing E2Ws until post- 2000.
Many companies with no past manufacturing experience entered the industry making
E2Ws directly.
E2W Users
From the user perspective, E2Ws offer many advantages to regular bikes and walking.
The main reasons for choosing this mode are presented in Figure 2- 1 below, based on
survey results in three cities in China.
34
Figure 2- 1: Most popular reasons for choosing an E2W
Most E2W users are switching from bicycle and bus ( see Figure 2- 2). When survey
respondents were asked what mode they would choose if they could not travel by E2W,
the majority in Shanghai and Kunming selected bus whereas in Shijiazhuang, where bus
service is not as good and the city size is smaller, the majority selected bicycle.
35
Figure 2- 2: Next best alternative for E2W users
2.2 Historical Analysis
The history of E2Ws in China spans over four decades, and can be clustered into four
distinct periods [ 3].
Pre- E2W Phase: 1940s- 1970s
The seeds of the E2Ws growth in China can be traced back to the beginning of the
bicycle’s rise in 1949, the same year the People’s Republic of China was founded.
During this time, the National government set bicycle production as a national priority
and began establishing bicycle infrastructure in cities. It is estimated that national bicycle
ownership rose from 0.5 million in 1949 to 1 million in 1958, and reached a maximum of
545 million by 1978. Private vehicle ownership on the other hand was not allowed before
the mid 1980’ s, when only government officials were allowed to own cars [ 2]. Thus, for
most people the bicycle and public transportation served one’s daily needs.
Mobility needs for most regular citizens were relatively low in China due to
industrial structure and housing policy. Between 1949 until 1978, China’s industry was
primarily composed of state- owned enterprises ( SOE). Most people during this time lived
in housing provided by their SOE, thus their commute travel demand was minimal. China
had also established a “ hukou” system that restricted people to live in the districts
assigned to them, preventing people from rural areas migrating to the cities. Incomes
remained very low.
36
In 1978, China began its “ Opening Revolution” ( Gaige Kaifang), ushering in a
long period of rapid economic development, which continues to this day. Government
began granting people the freedom to live where they wanted, and slowly closed down
the SOEs. Along with more freedom to live where one chose, people also began making
more money. In the 90’ s the hukou system restrictions were reduced significantly.
First Phase ( 1980s)
Research into E2Ws production in China first began in the 1960s, though actual
products did not appear on the market until the late 80’ s when consumer demand first
began growing. E2W companies first appeared in Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Tianjin. Total
annual E2W production reached only 10- 20,000/ yr. At this time, people knew very little
about E2Ws because the average person could only afford a normal bike.
This peak however lasted only 3- 4 years. This introduction of E2Ws was short- lived for
several reasons. Firstly, E2W technology was not advanced enough to fulfill the demand
of consumers. In particular, battery quality was low in terms of performance and lifetime,
and costs were high. Secondly, the E2W price was also relatively high due to the high
battery cost. E2W use failed to grow during this phase because they could not compete
with inexpensive gasoline motor scooters.
Second Phase ( early 1990’ s)
E2W use experienced a second surge during the early 1990s due to the government’s
push for energy efficiency. This period was short- lived however, again due to their
37
inability to compete with gasoline- powered scooters. E2Ws again failed to become
widespread and gain significant market share. E2Ws were being developed and sold in
Taiwan, but they failed to gain considerable market share despite subsidy, in large part
because no restrictions were placed on gasoline- powered scooters [ 42- 45]
Third Phase ( late 1990’ s- current)
E2Ws again emerged into the market during the late 1990s and witnessed considerable
growth that has continued up to the present. Table 2- 1 lists chronologically important
events in the history of E2Ws in China:
Table 2- 1: E2W History in China a
Year Event
1987 Electric Vehicle Institute of China Electro- technical society founded
1991 National science Board names E2W as one of 10 main technology projects
during 9th 5 year plan period
1993 Shanghai founded electric vehicle industrialization development center
1994 Shanghai lost automobile research bid for developing electric vehicles to
Guangzhou; turns to developing E2Ws ( via Crane). Tianjin bans the sale of
gasoline- powered scooters [ 46]
1995 Prime minister Li Pong declares support for electric vehicles, leading to
“ Seminar for E2W Development in Light Industry General Society
1995 100 beta- test Crane E2Ws are deployed [ 46]
1996 First National Forum on E2Ws held
1996 Shanghai suspends license granting to gasoline- powered vehicles downtown,
Mayor declares to " gradually eliminate gasoline- powered assist vehicle and
actively develop and promote electro- assist technology"
1997 Crane rolls out first commercial batch of E2Ws ( 150- 180W motor, 7Ah battery
capacity) [ 46]
38
1998 Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, and Suzhou ban the sale of gasoline- powered
scooters. Many other medium/ large cities follow suit in the following years.
1999 National E2W standards passed, creating uniform specifications for BSEB and
SSEB.
1999 Shanghai began annual inspections of gasoline- powered scooters, eliminating
those of which exhaust gas emission was unacceptable- 53,000 were eliminated
in 1999- Mayor states desire to replace all motor scooters by electric bike in next
4- 5 years
1999 Shanghai Economy and Trade Committee lists E2Ws as one of 12 main
construction projects in the " Highland"
1999 E2W licenses are granted in Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong,
Yunnan, Anhui, Hebei
2000 Administrative coordinators nationwide recommend promotion of E2W to
Department of State
2000 Dept of State Traffic Control Bureau drafts " Road Transportation Safety Law" to
allow E2Ws right to use bike lanes as long as they have pedals and speed is
below 20 km/ hr
2000 Zhejiang founds Electric Vehicle Preparatory Team, Ningbo hosts E2W Festival,
and Shanghai hosts first International EV and components Expo
2002 Beijing issues a ban stating they will cease offering E2W licenses beginning
2006 in order to promote automobile development, Beijing Communicative
Administration Department [ 47]
2002 Fuzhou government bans electric bikes from streets but is later sued by E2W
OEMS and citizens, raising the profile of E2Ws throughout China [ 48]
2003 E2W sales surge after SARS outbreak when many riders shift from public transit
[ 46]
2004 China passes the “ Road Transportation Safety Law” ( see 2000 above)
2005 Annual domestic E2W sales top 10 million
2006 Jan 4, Beijing Public Security Bureau lifts ban on E2Ws
2006 Shanghai E2W population reaches 1.35 million, the highest ownership level of
any city in China [ 49]. E2W production in China in 2006 projected to reach 18
million [ 50]
2006 Nov 3, Guangzhou announces ban of all electric bikes on city roadways
a. Historical facts extracted from [ 3] unless stated otherwise
39
2.3 Important Factors for Rapid E2W Growth
The reasons for E2W success in the 3 rd phase can be categorized into three important
development factors: technology, economics, and policy.
Technology Factors
Improvements in battery and motor technology, in particular lead ( Pb) acid batteries and
in- hub E2W motors, since the 90s helped expand the market for E2Ws. E2Ws, reaching
ranges of 50- 60 km and 250- 350 Watt, could finally compete in performance with the
incumbent gasoline- powered scooter.
Batteries
Over 95% of E2Ws sold in China use Pb- acid batteries [ 51]. While Pb- acid batteries
have been in use for nearly a century in automobiles and other applications, there have
been important advances in the past decade rendering them more suitable for E2Ws.
During the first phase of E2W introduction, batteries used liquid acid electrolyte instead
of the fixed electrolyte used in most Pb- acid batteries today. Liquid- type required more
maintenance, and if the battery or bike fell over, electrolyte leaked out and caused
property damage. Most E2Ws today use valve- regulated Pb- acid types with gel or
absorbed glass mat ( AGM) electrolyte, which, in addition to improving energy density,
also minimizes maintenance and electrolyte spills due to its sealed nature [ 51]. Between
40
1997 and 2006, energy density of E2W batteries increased 33% from 30 Watt- hours
( Wh)/ kg to 40 Wh/ kg while battery life also increased 35% to over 300 cycles. The
performance improvements in battery life from one large battery supplier are shown in
Table 2- 2 below.
Table 2- 2: Lifetime of E2W battery vs. time
1997-
1998
2000 2003 2006
Manufacturer Guaranteed Lifetime
( months)
3 6 12 12
Anticipated lifetime under normal
operating conditions ( months)
7- 8 12 18 18- 24
Motors
In the past decade, E2W motors saw two significant technology advances. The first was
the introduction of brushless motors into E2Ws. E2Ws originally used only brush motors
because they are simple, cheap, and controllers to regulate current are less
sophisticated. In the early 2000s, many E2W makers switched to brushless motors.
Table 2- 3 compares the characteristics of each and their relative advantages. SSEBs
more frequently use brushless motors since users seldom use the pedal function and
prefer more power for carrying cargo and passengers.
Table 2- 3: Comparison of Brush to Brushless Motors
Brush Type Brushless Type
Rotating
speed
2,000 rpm 300 rpm
Average
Weight
4 kg 6 kg
41
Advantages Has gear/ clutch so easier to
use pedal- only mode. Better
for far travel with few elevation
changes. Cheap
Longer life, lower maintenance
requirements, more powerful
( better for climbing hills and
carrying goods)
Disadvantages High rpm requires more
frequent maintenance
Controller for this motor type is
more expensive ( 3x more than
for brush type)
The second advance was in motor efficiency, which improved from 50% to 85% between
1995 and 2000. This improvement resulted in a 60% increase in range. In the mid
1990’ s motors were disc- type and used iron- oxide permanent magnets. In 1997, brush-type
motors were introduced with a reduction gear system. Around 2000, ruthenium-iron-
boron magnets were introduced into E2W motors. In 2006, neodymium magnets
have been introduced that are increasing motor efficiency even more. Recent joint
ventures with foreign companies have also aided in the improvement of technology
Economic Factors
The most important economic factors explaining rapid E2W adoption in China are the
rising income level of the Chinese, the decreasing cost of E2W technology, and the
rising cost of gasoline.
Rising income level
The rapid development of China in the past decade has raised the standard of living of
its residents, bringing the E2W within closer reach of millions more. Between 1997 and
42
2004, average disposable income increased 82% from $ 645/ yr to $ 1180/ yr. Survey
results in Figure 2- 3 show a relationship between E2W use and income. Note Shanghai
and Kunming show household income whereas Shijiazhuang reports individual income.
Figure 2- 3: Income vs. mode choice in three Chinese cities
However, there are clearly other factors involved in E2W use since there are E2W users
in low, middle, and high- income brackets. Discrete choice modeling of electric bike users
in Cherry and Cervero ( 2006) report that travel time is more significant than income in
determining electric bike choice compared to alternatives modes.
Vehicle Price
E2Ws price has dropped since their initial introduction while E2W technology and
efficiency has improved. In 1999, the BSEBs were ~$ 310, and fell to $ 250 in 2000 due
to considerable industrial development. By late 2003, average price dropped again to
43
$ 188, with the cheapest models reaching a bottom price of $ 125. As of 2006, average
prices still ranged from $ 125- 375, despite far better quality and performance. Currently,
the E2W in market is classified into three price levels [ 48], shown in Table 2- 4.
Table 2- 4: E2W style and price range
Style Description Share
Luxury (>$ 325) Mainly SSEB and include few very good
BSEB
10%
Moderate ($ 225~ 275) Both BSEB and SSEB 60%
Economical (<$ 188) All simple BSEB 30%
Much of this reduction in price can be attributed to larger production scale of both E2Ws
and their components.
Fuel and Energy Costs
Fuel price has risen substantially in the past 6 years. Gasoline prices in Shanghai
increased 45% since 2002 from $ 0.39- 0.56/ liter ( excluding inflation). Because fuel cost
for gasoline scooters is over 30% of the total annual cost, this fuel cost increase
effectively increased the cost of gasoline- scooter 15%. Consumers purchase decisions
are sensitive to fuel cost increases since it is a more frequent payment.
Along with rising gasoline prices, electricity prices fell in rural areas. This price decrease
was due to significant investment from central government in electricity infrastructure
through rural areas nationwide, and the decision to drop rural electricity prices to urban
price levels. Before this policy was enacted 1998, electricity price in rural areas was
44
~ 50% higher than in urban areas [ 52]. This decrease in price combined with rising
income caused the rural E2W market to expand rapidly. 3 One electric bike company
estimates that in 2005 the rural consumers accounted for 20% of their national E2W
sales and that rural E2W sales jumped 190% between the first two quarters of 2006.
E2W relative lifecycle cost advantage
Figure 1- 1 of Chapter 1 shows that the cost of owning and operating an E2W is the
lowest of all personal motorized transportation in China (~ 4 cents/ km). The assumptions
and method for calculating these costs are found in the Appendix ( section 8- 1), results
are shown in Table 8- 1.
Policy Factors
The following section introduces two important national E2W policies and describes the
impact they had on E2W growth. Regional differences in policy will then be discussed
using four cities as examples.
National Rules for E2W Use
The national government has set two key policies that have facilitated the development
of the E2W market, the “ 1999 National E2W Standards” and the 2004 “ Road
Transportation Safety Law”.
45
National E2Ws Standards: In 1999, national E2W standards were set to establish
performance limits for E2Ws with respect to speed, weight, and power. One important
part of the specification was that as long as the E2W had functional pedals, it could be
classified as an E2W, which allowed SSEBs to be classified under the same rules and
regulations as BSEBs.
The effect this part of the standard had was that it opened the doors of what would
become a huge, important market for SSEBs. Manufacturers capitalized on this
loophole in the standard by making SSEBs with pedals that barely functioned and that
could be easily removed after purchase. They realized the scooter style could directly
compete with the incumbent technology ( gasoline and LPG scooters) since, besides the
powertrain, most other features were equal. Many prefer this style to BSEB because it’s
easier to carry cargo and passengers, more comfortable ( larger seat, lower center of
gravity), and creates more opportunities for unique, fashionable styling. 4 In Shanghai, it
is estimated that > 70% of E2Ws are SSEB. This is a common trend in Southern cities,
though in Northern cities, BSEB are more popular because batteries discharge more
quickly in cold weather, requiring users to pedal often.
The standards allowed further design flexibility by having “ required” criteria and
“ recommended” criteria. The following specifications must be met ( or the vehicle cannot
be licensed): speed limit (< 20 km/ h), the brake distance ( dry: 4m, wet: 15 m) and frame
vibration ( quiver test: > 70,000 cycles without damage). Many OEMs get around the
speed requirement by adding vehicle speed restriction devices that are easily removed
after purchase. The rest of the specifications such as weight, width, motor power, pedal
capability result in a fine for the OEM if not met and are thus “ recommended”. The
magnitude of these fines is not fixed and is often directly related to the OEM’s
46
relationship with the local quality supervision department. The flexibility in meeting this
standard has thus resulted in faster, heavier, more powerful E2Ws on the roads.
Through interviews with several OEMs about the standards issue, we noticed a distinct
“ wait and see” behavior regarding their future plans to expand. Some stated they are
holding off on large, potentially risky investments until the new standards come out, and
this hesitation is impacting product evolution.
National Road Transportation Safety Law: Drafted in 2000 and finally ratified in 2004, the
Road Transportation Safety Law effectively classifies E2Ws as a non- motorized vehicle,
giving them the same rights as bicyclists. This allowed users to operate an E2W without
a driver’s license or helmet, though some larger cities now require E2Ws to be
registered. The law, besides giving users the right to ride in the bike lane, gave E2W
proponents in industry and government legal standing in defending E2W use and sale in
many cities.
Local Policy Differences
While E2W standards and road rules are set by national government, it is up to local
governments to decide how to enforce these product standards and manage traffic. Due
in part to regional variations in policy enforcement, E2W penetration is noticeably
different from city to city. This section examines different policy attitudes towards E2Ws
and how it has impacted their success using four Chinese cities as examples: 1)
Shanghai & Chengdu ( pro- E2W), 2) Beijing ( anti- E2W) and 3) Shijiazhuang ( neutral).
Data on vehicle share was collected by observation at various locations throughout each
47
city at different times and aggregated. In shanghai, the majority of motor scooters are
LPG. In other regions, they are gasoline. Chengdu is included in Figure 2- 4 to compare
a pro- E2W city without an LPG infrastructure.
Figure 2- 4: 2WV proportions in select Chinese cities
1. Shanghai: Pro E2W
In 1996, Shanghai ( population 17.4 million, 2005), confronted with poor air quality and
high motorized vehicle use, outlawed the sale and use of gasoline scooters in city
centers through license restriction. As of 2006, the only 2WV allowed to operate are LPG
scooters, E2Ws, and bicycles. Site observation shows that these rules are effectively
enforced; gasoline scooters are rarely seen except in Shanghai’s more rural suburbs.
The figure below shows the effect of this ban on E2W growth relative to other 2WV
modes in recent years. One reason for such high LPG scooter proportion in Shanghai is
that in 1998, the taxi fleet switched to LPG, and thus an extensive fueling infrastructure
developed throughout the city. In Chengdu, where gasoline scooters are also banned,
E2W mode share surpasses bikes.
48
Figure 2- 5 below shows how E2Ws are replacing other 2WV modes in Shanghai [ 53].
This shift occurred amidst rising level of disposable income of urban households from
$ 1,625 to $ 2,090 ( 28% increase) during the same time period [ 54]. Note that registered
bicycles are an order of magnitude higher than the other modes.
Figure 2- 5: Two- Wheeled Vehicle Population Change in Shanghai
2. Anti- E2W
Some cities view E2Ws as just a prolonging of bicycle use, which they are eager to
displace in favor of more advanced, modern modes such as the automobile or public
transportation. Other reasons for mixed attitudes about E2Ws include concerns about
their effect in reducing traffic speeds, creating safety hazards in mixed bike / car traffic,
and lead- pollution from poor battery recycling infrastructure [ 47].
Beijing ( pop. 14 million, 2004) is an example of one large Chinese city that proposed a
ban on E2Ws in the beginning, but finally reversed itself in 2006. This hostile policy
49
impacted consumer purchase decisions during these key E2W growth years, resulting in
lower E2W share than many other cities. Beijing carefully enforces the national E2W
standard and restricts E2W dealers from selling SSEBs, further discouraging E2W sales
[ 55]. Guangzhou, Fuzhou, Wuhan and Haikou are examples of other large anti- E2W
cities. The rationale in these cities is that E2Ws are unsafe and have negative impacts
on traffic.
3. E2W neutral
Shijiazhuang ( pop. 9 million, 2005) is example of a city that is undecided about the costs
and benefits of E2Ws and thus have adopted a “ wait and see” approach to managing
E2Ws. They neither promote nor restrict them. This city has few cars, unlike Beijing,
which has over 2 million cars.
Changing Urban Form and Travel Patterns
E2W use has also been influenced by changes in travel demand caused by economic
development and policy reform. The closing of state- owned enterprises and liberalization
of the housing market, which started in the mid- 1990s, gave workers the freedom to live
farther from workplaces and create more multi- worker families. This in turn induced
more travel demand and required more flexible travel modes, which is exhibited in a
rising share of income spent on transportation between 1997 and 2005. During this
period, percentage of income spent on transportation and communication ( T& C)
expenditures increased by 5.2% to 11.8% ( 127% growth). Assuming the portion spent
on transportation is 60% of total T& C spending ( 56% in Beijing 2005 [ 56]), the average
50
annual transportation budget of a household is $ 85/ yr, not far from the annual cost of
owning and operating an E2W ($ 120/ yr, see table 5).
China’s rapid urbanization ( the flux of rural people into cities) over the past decade, also
a product of economic and political changes, is another a factor in E2W growth.
Urbanization has led to increased congestion within cities and greater demand for low-cost
peripheral housing in their suburbs. Public transportation service in most cities is
crowded and slow due to congestion, which is one of the most commonly stated reasons
electric bike users choose this mode in Shijiazhuang, Kunming, and Shanghai ( See
Figure 3). Buses are also inherently inflexible in serving a growing diversity of
origins/ destinations sets.
Traditional bicycles have also become less and less suited for travel as trips lengths
extend and households demand fast, flexible, load carrying modes. The tri- city survey
results show that E2W users are experiencing more range and less travel time than
bicycles. Trip length and frequency is on average 10%- 20% higher than bicycles;
average operating speed is 31- 35% higher in Shanghai and Kunming. Discrete choice
modeling of electric bike users shows that travel time is one of the most significant
determinates of electric bike choice, compared to alternatives [ 28]. Electric bikes will
have a market advantage as long as door- to- door travel times remain lower than
relevant alternatives.
Other Factors
Other factors explaining the E2W phenomenon are related to demographics, land use
and infrastructure. The increasing numbers of women commuters plays a role. Regional
51
differences between cities such as city area, automobile use, level of public transit
service, topography, weather also affects the variations in E2W popularity from city to
city. For instance, cities with large geographic area and poor public transit service would
likely experience a larger shift of bike and transit users to E2W. Cities with high
automobile use may have less bike lane infrastructure and more anti- E2W policies would
likely have less E2W users. There are also random factors involved, such as the 2003
SARS scare and abnormally hot summer when people shifted away from crowded public
transportation and E2Ws sales jumped from 20,000/ year to 300,000/ yr [ 57]. These
factors and more will be explored and quantified in future analyses.
2.4 Conclusions
E2Ws, though they floundered twice in the 80s and early 90s, experienced extraordinary
growth in the late 90s to the present due to a combination of economic, technical, and
political factors, summarized below:
• E2W technology, specifically motors and batteries, improved significantly during
the late 1990’ s. Simple technology, a vast supplier base, and weak intellectual
property protection made it easier for E2W makers to enter the industry,
increasing competition and driving prices down.
• Due to improving economic conditions nationally, incomes of urban households
and the share spent on transportation both rose considerably.
• E2W prices decreased, gasoline prices rose and electricity prices in rural areas
dropped, making E2Ws more competitive economically with alternatives like
gasoline- powered scooters and bus.
52
• National and local government policy motivated by energy and air quality issues
created favorable conditions for E2W growth. Banning gasoline powered
motorcycles in large city centers removed the most competitive mode from the
choice set.
• National E2W standards with loopholes and flexible guidelines created a rich
opportunity for manufacturers to create E2Ws that appealed to more users,
namely, scooter- style electric bikes.
• Due to changes in urban form, performance of alternative transportation modes
decreased as trips lengths and congestion increased. This made trips difficult to
traverse by bicycle and slow by motorized modes, particularly buses and taxis.
The history of E2Ws provides an important lesson on the powerful impact of regulatory
policy, given the evolution of technology to a market acceptable product. While
technological progress was required to meet the customer demands for economics and
performance, the regulatory environment provided strong impetus for the market to grow
and for further investment in technology evolution. Without this the E2W market would
not have emerged. Support for this conclusion can be found by looking at the lack of
growth in “ anti E2W” cities. There is further evidence of the sensitivity to local policy in
Shanghai, where an alternative ( LPG scooters) emerged in a regulatory environment
that was otherwise favorable to E2Ws. Where regulatory policy is favorable / neutral,
economics and customer expectations will determine market success.
While electric bikes have some positive impacts on transportation and urban air quality,
policy makers are not unanimously in favor of this mode resulting in E2W bans in three
53
cities. Safety is the most commonly cited concern due to their silent nature and
increasing speed and weight. While E2Ws provide zero tail- pipe emissions, they do emit
pollution from power plants, which are mostly coal fired in China. Lead emissions from
batteries production and recycling also have serious health implications due to high lead
loss rates in the Chinese lead and battery industries.
Recommendations
E2Ws are still in their infancy and many of their negative impacts can be mitigated
through technology improvements ( particularly increased use of advanced battery
technology), improved traffic operation strategies and enforced design and performance
specifications. Removing vulnerable road users like bikes and E2Ws and encouraging
truly unsafe modes like cars is a poor policy direction. Rather than prohibit electric bikes,
the industry, government and users need to address the problematic aspects of E2Ws
production, performance and technology. This could make this mode much more
sustainable into the future and could significantly impact transportation systems and
mode choice as China motorizes.
Looking forward, this analysis hints at future technology evolution paths for China’s 450
million bike users, 22 million current E2W users, and burgeoning car population. In
smaller cities and countryside where incomes are rising, E2Ws may eventually replace
bicycles. China’s experience may also have a trickle- down effect in other developing
countries with high 2WV use ( e. g. India, Vietnam) and mounting urban transportation
problems. Speculating on the future of technology evolution and trends in China and
these other countries, further technological progress on E2Ws and increasing
54
environmental pressures may create a regulatory environment that ushers in electric 3-
wheelers and small battery electric cars.
In any case, the implications of how and where this technology system develops are
huge. These implications, both positive and negative, on urban traffic, industry
development, energy use, and environmental impacts, warrant further investigation.
Notes:
1. Several interviewed E2W companies noted there are many more than official
estimates because many operate without a license. One company estimated that only 24
E2W OEMs in China actually have a license while another company mentioned many
don’t even have a trademark.
2. One E2W company initially started assembling E2Ws using their and their neighbor’s
home.
3. China carried out a national electric facilities improvement project, which decreased
the electric price in rural areas. ( Xinhuanet)
4. Small children often stand on the foot platform while another passenger sits behind
the driver. Site observation shows SSEB carry cargo and passengers more often than
SSEBs.
55
3 ELECTRIC TWO- WHEELERS IN CHINA: EFFECT ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR,
MODE SHIFT, AND USER SAFETY PERCEPTIONS IN A MEDIUM- SIZED CITY
Abstract
Despite rapid economic growth in China over the past decade and rise in personal car
ownership, most Chinese still rely on two- wheeled vehicles ( 2WV) or public transport for
commuting. The majority of these 2WVs are bicycles. In recent years, concern about
poor air quality in urban areas and rising energy costs have caused cities to ban
gasoline- powered scooters in city centers. Simultaneously, a new 2WV mode emerged
to fill the void: the electric bike ( E2W).
This shift to E2Ws is occurring at rapid pace throughout China, especially in its cities.
E2W sales reached 10 million per year in 2005 as more bike and public transit users
shifted to this mode. City planners and policy makers are undecided on how to plan for
and regulate E2Ws because it is not yet clear what effect they will have on travel
behavior, public transportation use, and safety. To begin to understand these effects, the
authors have surveyed bike and E2W users in Shijiazhuang, a medium- sized city with
particularly high two- wheeled vehicle ( 2WV) use, to identify differences in travel
characteristics and attitudes.
The following conclusions are made: ( partial list)
- E2Ws are enabling people to commute longer distances. This has important
implications on energy use, accessibility and urban expansion of cities.
56
- People under- served by public transportation are shifting to E2W.
- Women feel safer crossing intersections on an E2W compared to regular bike, however
they have strong reservations about increasing E2W speed capability.
3.1 Introduction
Two- wheeled vehicles ( 2WV; e. g. bicycles, E2Ws, motor scooters, motorcycles) have
historically been an important component of traffic throughout China and many other
developing countries. In medium and large Chinese cities like Shijiazhuang, the
dominant 2WVs are bicycles.
Bicycles, estimated at 450 million nationally in 2004 [ 58], have been and still remain the
dominant 2WV in Chinese cities, mainly due to low income, high population density ( and
thus short trips), and extensive bicycle infrastructure ( e. g. lanes, parking). Based on
statistical report in 2005, bicycle trip share is still over 50% in many large cities like
Tianjin, Xi’an and Shijiazhuang [ 59].
Gasoline- powered motorcycles ( includes scooter & mopeds) used to make up a larger
percentage of the overall 2WV population, however, beginning in late 1990s, many large
cities ( population > 1 million) and most capital cities have stopped licensing these
vehicles. Total gasoline- powered motorcycles in China numbered 80 million in 2005 [ 7].
Although numbers are still growing in the wide rural areas and small cities, it is estimated
that without urban restrictions, 4~ 5 million more would be on the roads [ 60].
In recent years however, due to improved standard of living and rapid urbanization,
Chinese are shifting from bike ( or public transit) to electric bikes ( E2Ws) as they demand
57
more flexible, convenient, and comfortable mobility. In 2005, there were an estimated
20- 22 million E2Ws in China [ 48]. Production is expected to grow 80% annually over the
next five years [ 61].
Throughout China, however, there are mixed views by government about E2Ws and
their effect on traffic. In May 2006, a national government agency issued a report
promoting E2Ws for their air quality and energy- saving benefit [ 61]. In November 2006
though, Guangzhou became the third city in China to ban E2Ws ( behind Fuzhou and
Zhuhai), under advice from the traffic management bureau citing traffic safety concerns
[ 27]. The safety issue of E2Ws mixed in traffic is a key consideration in drafting the new
National E2W Standards, which are under revision and intense debate. The standard
regulates the performance and specifications of E2Ws ( see section below). Bicycle
proponents ( e. g. China Bicycle Association ( CBA)) want to limit E2W performance to
make them more similar to bicycle, and for fear that faster, heavier E2Ws will make them
dangerous to cyclists. E2W manufacturers, however, want to broaden the limits on
weight, width and power to be able to build products that they claim customers want.
Whatever new standard is adopted will greatly effect the future direction of E2W
development in China.
Shijiazhuang Background
Shijiazhuang city is located in south- central Hebei province. As the capital of the
province it has recently developed into an important commercial port of regional
agricultural and distribution center of industrial products in northern China. The total and
urban population in 2005 was 9.2 and 2.2 million, respectively. Total and Urban Area is
15,900 and 3,850 km 2 , respectively. The topography in this area is low ( 70 meters above
58
sea level) and flat since it is situated in the Huabei Plain of China. The climate ranges
from an average high of 26.9° in July and an average low of - 2.4° in January.
Shijiazhuang’s urban layout follows the typical Chinese model of a mono- centric city with
a high- speed ring road encircling the urban area. The urban area is divided into four
quadrants by two railways and the city’s commercial district is centered around the
railway station. Residential areas mainly stand on the northwest, center and east of city.
Bicycles and E2Ws compose the largest daily trip mode share in Shijiazhuang. A
previous survey conducted by Shijiazhuang showed that in 2002, cycling trip share was
54% and reached a volume of 3 million trips per day. For comparison, public transit trip
share was only 4.3% [ 62].
3.2 Methodology
Because of the institutional and logistical difficulty in conducting random household
surveys in China, the authors designed and implemented an intercept survey of 751 bike
and 460 E2W users throughout Shijiazhuang. The survey was administered at bicycle
and E2W parking lots along the main travel corridor ( Zhongshan Lu) in Shijiazhuang in
order to capture a diverse range of respondents from many different parts of the city.
The survey was administered on both a workday and weekend day in June 2006, from
7: 30- 11: 30 and 3: 00- 6: 00 to collect as broad a range of respondent types as possible
( i. e. workers, retirees, students, etc.). Separate surveys were given to bicycle and E2W
riders in order to identify any differences between their travel behavior and attitudes.
Before launching this survey, the authors first administered a trial survey on 50
bike/ E2W users to identify the potential problems with the survey and uncover any
59
unintentional biases. We found some of the response choices inappropriate and certain
questions confusing. These problems were corrected before administering the final
survey.
Potential sampling biases/ inaccuracies
Surveyors kept the sample balanced in gender and ages. However, based on site
observation, the proportion of male and female E2W users is not evenly balanced; in a
random sample of 180 E2W users, 62% were female, 38% were male. This may lead to
an under- representation of female attitudes and travel behavior regarding E2Ws since
our survey only surveyed 50% women.
The same problem also occurs in representing the elderly age group. Our survey was
conducted during the daytime on two days with hot weather. Because elderly people in
China are more active in the early morning, and also due the hot daytime weather, this
age group may be under- represented.
The survey was carried out only in the downtown areas of Shijiazhuang. This location
may result in a slight bias towards higher- income users as well as individuals who use
electric bikes for work commute trips.
In order to calculated trip distance, rather than ask people their trip distance directly, we
asked respondents to locate their origins and destination using a grid map. We then
asked people to estimate their travel time. Our data collection method for trip distance
and thus travel speed could have inaccuracies if respondents chose a special route that
was longer or shorter than the distance calculated using their origin/ destination
coordinates.
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Data Processing
The results in the section below were calculated using Excel. Data from the survey was
input into an Excel spreadsheet, and response choices for each question were added
together. The data was sorted by demographics when appropriate.
Since the streets in central Shijiazhuang follow a grid pattern, trip distance was
calculated by measuring the ! X and ! Y from respondents’ stated origin and destination
which they located using a grid map attached to survey. Trip speed is calculated by
dividing calculated trip distance, by stated trip time. Calculated trip speeds were then
averaged together to find the absolute average trip speed. Trip speed results exhibit the
most uncertainty since our calculated responses ranged from 5- 26 km/ h for bike users
and 4- 34 km/ hr for E2Ws. Responses under 6 km/ hr were thrown out.
3.3 Results
2WV User Demographic Differences
The differences in age, gender, and income between bike and E2W users are presented
in the sections below.
Age and Gender
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Of the 751 bike riders and 460 E2W users, 49% were male and 51% female. Figure 1
shows the distribution of bikes and E2Ws among men and women of different age
groups.
2WV Users by Age and Gender
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
< 18 19- 23 24- 30 31- 40 41- 50 51- 60 > 60
Age group
% of respondents
Male E- bike Users
Male Bike Users
Female E- bike Users
Female Bike Users
Figure 3- 1: Bike and E2W users by age and gender
E2Ws are most popular amongst the “ 24- 30” age group, especially among females.
Almost half of all female E2W riders are in this group. Nearly 73% of all E2W users are
between 24 and 40, compared to 51% of all bike riders. This could reflect higher- income
career- aged commuters choosing E2Ws.
Income
The average income of bike users and E2W users, 18,000 and 22,000 RMB/ yr,
respectively ( 8.0RMB = $ 1 USD) ( Figure 3- 2). The small income gap indicates that there
are other factors behind purchasing an E2W than just price. These other factors are
revealed in analyzing the trip characteristics of the two groups in the next section.
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Figure 3- 2: Income levels of bike and E2W users ( RMB/ yr)
Trip Characteristics
The difference in trip characteristics between bikes and E2Ws are explored in the
following section. This includes trip distance, time, frequency, speed, and purpose.
Trip Distance
Figure 3- 3 shows distribution of trip distance for 2WV in Shijiazhuang. E2W riders in
general travel 32% farther than bicycle riders ( 5.8 vs. 4.4 km/ trip average).
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Figure 3- 3: Distribution of trip distance for bike and E2W
Trip Time
E2W riders’ travel time is about 10% longer on average than bike riders ( 24.7 vs. 27.2
minutes, respectively). Approximately 80% of bikers make trip less than 30 minutes,
which concurs with a previous survey of 14 Chinese cities ( population > 1million) in 1995
[ 63]. Only 70% of E2Wrs made trips less than 30 minutes, indicating that people are
willing to travel for longer periods of time by E2W.
Trip Speed
E2W average speed is 17% higher than bike users: 14 vs. 12 km/ hr. This is not
surprising since they travel farther distances over the same commute time, and they are
supported by electric propulsion. The statistical significance of this result however is
uncertain due to the data collection method. Speed studies in Shanghai and Kunming
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show about a 30% difference in speeds ( 14.5 km/ hr vs. 11.1 km/ hr and 14.7 km/ hr vs.
10.9 km/ hr, respectively), which is consistent with users in Shijiazhuang with longer trip
distances [ 64]. The difference in speeds might be under- estimated if respondents
included their access and egress times. This would more heavily under- estimate the on-vehicle
speed of faster modes.
Trip Purpose
Commuting is the dominant trip purpose for both bike and E2W users ( 61% and 77%
respectively). Going to school, picking up children from school, and shopping make up
the smaller share of trips. “ School” is a more common trip purpose for bike users since,
as people under 23 more commonly ride a bicycle.
Trip Frequency
Both bike and E2W users on average make between 2- 4 trips per day. There is no
significant difference between E2W and regular bike users.
Passenger and cargo carrying
Site observation and survey results revealed that E2W users carry cargo and
passengers more often than bicycles. SSEBs users are commonly seen carrying as
many as two passengers. Clearly, the increased power offered by the battery and motor
makes this behavior much easier.
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Vehicle performance in traffic
Due to E2W’s higher acceleration and speed (> 20 km/ hr), they typically lead each wave
of NMVs traveling through the bike lane from one intersection to the next. E2Wrs tend to
reach the intersection before bicyclists, and thus quickly accelerate through the
intersection once the signal turns green, unimpeded by bicyclists. Bicyclists are typically
the last to pass through an intersection.
Travel Mode Choice
In order to make better urban planning decisions about road capacity, public transport,
and traffic policies affecting bike and E2W users, it is important to understand why 2WV
users choose these modes, how they would travel is these modes weren’t available, and
their plans to switch modes. The following section presents results from the survey
regarding these issues.
Reasons for choosing bike/ E2W
Respondents were asked why they choose to ride a bike/ E2W for commuting. They
were given 10 options and could select multiple answers. The five most popular
responses for bike and E2W users are shown in Figure 3- 4.
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Figure 3- 4: Reasons why users choose bikes/ E2Ws for commuting
These results indicate the E2Ws are offering users a better alternative to biking and
riding the bus. They also reinforce results about trip distance that people are commuting
farther to work. For bike users, the results show that people choose to ride a bike for
other reasons than just low- income. Road congestion, health, and convenience are also
important factors.
2WV Users and Public Transit
The results of the survey indicate that the public transit network in Shijiazhuang is an
important part of the 2WV users’ transportation system. 2WV users were asked
questions about their bus- riding habits and attitudes. They were first asked why they
don’t ride the bus, and if they sometimes ride the bus, why ( Figure 3- 5). The majority of
2WV users (~ 60%) depends on the bus during bad weather and often uses it when their
bike is unavailable.
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2WV Users: Do you Ride the Bus & Why?
0% 20% 40% 60%
Other
bike unavailable
in bad weather
Other
too slow
bus route not convenient
too crowded
% of respondents
|
|
NO
|
|
|
|
|
YES
|
|
Figure 3- 5: Bike/ E2W users reasons for choosing/ not choosing bus
2WV users don’t regularly ride the bus because it is too crowded, the bus route is
inconvenient, and it’s too slow. Another reason revealed through the survey is that
some people are concerned with thieves on the bus, and thus choose to ride a bike.
We also asked 2WV users how they would choose to commute if biking was no longer
an option. Figure 3- 6 indicates that the bus is the next best alternative for over 60% of
bike users. The bus system therefore plays a critical back- up role if the biking option is
unavailable. Surprisingly, 7% of bike riders would travel by car, which indicates some
are choosing biking for reasons other than economic necessity
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Figure 3- 6: Next best alternative for bike/ E2W users
A similar survey in Kunming and Shanghai was carried out and found slightly different
results. In both of these cities, most of the E2W users would otherwise choose bus for
their trips, 54% and 58% for Shanghai and Kunming, respectively. The second most
popular response was bicycle, with 12% and 21% of the responses in Shanghai and
Kunming, respectively. In both of these surveys, an overwhelming majority of
respondents chose bus, perhaps because of higher quality of bus service and city size
difference ( i. e. longer trip distances), compared to Shijiazhuang.
Future Plans to Change Travel Mode
To understand the future of 2WV use in Shijiazhuang, we asked current 2WV users if
they had plans to switch to different travel modes in the next year. Responses are shown
in Figure 3- 7. We found that the most popular future option for bicyclists is the E2W.
Current E2W users plan to switch to a better E2W or a car. Very few 2WV users plan to
switch to riding the bus. Many Chinese cities ( e. g. Shanghai) believe the improvement of
public transport services is the final solution for inner- city transportation challenges,
69
however service has lagged behind demand. Thus users who face long trip distances
have resorted to E2Ws.
Figure 3- 7: Future purchase plans of bike/ E2W users
Stratifying results based on income level shows that future purchase plans are
dependent on income. Of the low and mid- income bike users that plan to change mode
in the next year, the majority plan to switch to E2W. For high- income 2WV users ( both
bike and E2W) that plan to switch modes, the most popular choice was to buy a private
car. Other options such as bus, taxi, or ( other) were minimal.
Traffic Safety
Traffic safety for 2WV is a serious problem in China. There were an estimated 500,000
traffic deaths between 2000- 2005, 60% of whom are 2WVs users [ 65]. From site
observation and interviews with traffic management, the most difficult and dangerous
part of a 2WV users’ journey occurs at intersections due to the mix of automobiles,
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various 2WVs, and pedestrians [ 62]. In Shijiazhuang, intersections were particularly
chaotic due to the massive amounts of 2WVs crossing the street from both directions
and their strong tendency to disobey traffic lights.
Another safety issue is the mixing of bikes and E2Ws in the bike lane. We thus surveyed
2WV user attitudes on safety at intersections and E2W speed. Survey respondents
were asked to rank how much they agree or disagree to the statements shown in Figure
3- 8 ( 1= Strongly Agree, to 5= Strongly Disagree).
2WV Users: E- bikes ride too
fast in bike lane
SA
A
N
D
SD
0%
20%
40%
60%
SA A N D SD
% of respondents
E- bike Users
Bike Users
Figure 3- 8: Bike/ E2W user attitudes on speed of E2Ws
Safety at intersections
Results show that both bikers and E2Wrs generally are satisfied ( avg. response= “ agree”)
and feel safe using this mode of travel, and feel traffic police do a good job maintaining
order at intersections ( question 1, 3, 5). E2Wrs feel slightly more satisfied with their
mode than bikers, but they also feel slightly less safe.
On the other hand, both bike and E2W users were on average neutral about the ease of
crossing intersections ( question 2) and there were a large amount of both “ agree” and
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“ disagree” responses for both bikes and E2Ws. Sorting these responses by gender
reveals that female bike riders have the most difficult time crossing intersections,
whereas male E2W riders find it easiest. The responses showed that women find it
easier to cross the intersection when riding an E2W. This points to one reason why
E2Ws are so popular amongst women. Site observation also confirmed that E2W users
generally have an easier time crossing intersections. The highly “ stop- and- go” nature of
intersection makes crossing easier with the aid of electric propulsion.
Conflict b