The Evolution of Sustainable Personal Vehicles
By
BRYAN DALE JUNGERS
B. S. ( Humboldt State University) 2004
THESIS
Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE
in
Civil and Environmental Engineering
in the
OFFICE OF GRADUATE STUDIES
of the
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
DAVIS
Approved:
_________________________________( Chair)
_____________________________________
_____________________________________
Committee in Charge
2009
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Abstract
Through mechanisms of industrial globalization, modern societies are moving ever closer to capitalist
ideals, emphasizing consumer choice and free competitive markets. Despite these ideals, relatively few
choices currently exist for the typical personal vehicle consumer with respect to powertrain technology,
fuel selection, and vehicle weight/ size. This lack of market diversity is often blamed on the auto
industry, the energy industry, the ignorant or fickle consumer, and/ or the lack of long- term government
support and financing of alternative technologies. Though each of these factors has certainly played a
part in maintaining the status quo of a perpetually stagnant personal vehicle market, I will argue here
that the existing problems associated with personal vehicles will be addressed most effectively by the
fundamental reorientation of personal & institutional values. Such evolutionary shifts in perspective
should be applied broadly by designers, engineers, business leaders, and government officials.
I have explored several fundamental value shifts toward the evolution of sustainable personal vehicles.
The personal vehicle serves as an apt metaphor for both the freedoms and follies of modern
experience. By way of modeled examples, I define and evaluate the qualities of a sustainable personal
vehicle and its infrastructure. Many of these concepts should also be applicable for other segments of
the industrialized World. In no particular order, the following list summarizes potential value shifts.
1. Using rules of ecology to govern the cost- benefit trade offs between economic and social needs.
2. Designing new systems with eco- efficient use of resources and in harmony with living systems.
3. Eliminating the need for end- of- tailpipe regulation through eco- effective design & engineering.
4. Measuring system performance as achievement of steady- state sufficiency, not limitless growth.
5. Measuring energy/ work efficiency based on total benefits to humans and local environments.
6. Working as individuals within cooperative communities to share knowledge and skills globally.
7. Slowing industry to a pace that enables the discovery of appropriate questions & solutions.
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“ What is necessary to keep providing good care to nature
has completely fallen into ignorance during the materialism era.”
- Rudolf Steiner
“ Humanity is acquiring all the right technology for all the wrong reasons.”
- R. Buckminster Fuller
“ People are not machines, but in all situations where they are given the opportunity,
they will act like machines.”
- Karl Ludwig von Bertalanffy
“ I am life wanting to live with life that wants to live.”
- Albert Schweitzer
“...[ Today's scientists] wander off through equation after equation,
and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality.”
- Nikola Tesla
“ We must learn to love the children of all species, for all time.”
- William McDonough
“ If I had an hour to solve a problem and my life depended on
the solution, I would spend the first 55 minutes determining
the proper question to ask, for once I know the proper question,
I could solve the problem in less than five minutes.”
- Albert Einstein
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Acknowledgments and Dedications
All of my love and sincere appreciation go to my family, friends, and colleagues. My life has been
sufficiently enriched by your support and dedication. I would like to also sincerely thank Andy Burke,
Deb Niemeier, Dan Sperling, Joan Ogden, and Andy Frank for their guidance, mentorship, and support
of my work. I owe them each a great debt of gratitude and mountains of respect.
In general, this thesis is dedicated to all of the ordinary citizens who are striving to live by an ethic that
knowledge and power are more valuable to humanity as shared resources than as privately held
commodities. There is only one type of people in this World, and we are it.
In particular, I dedicate this thesis to my father, a man driven to the outer edges of sanity by his
perceptions of an unjust society. May he one day find peace, be it in this life or the next.
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Nomenclature
AC- alternating current
AER- all- electric ( driving) range
AFV- alternatively fueled vehicle
AH- ampere hour
AT- appropriate technology
BAU- business as usual
BEV- battery electric vehicle
BMS- battery management/ monitoring system
C2C- cradle to cradle
CARB- California Air Resources Board
CEV- city electric vehicle
CO2e- equivalent carbon dioxide emissions
CPE- criteria pollutant emissions
DC- direct current
DSM- demand- side management
EESD- electrochemical energy storage device ( e. g. battery)
EM- electric motor/ machine
ERI- externally replenishing ions
EV- electric vehicle
EV1- electric vehicle one ( by GM)
FCEV- fuel cell electric vehicle
FCHEV- fuel cell hybrid electric vehicle
GHG- greenhouse gases
GUI- graphic user interface
HEV- hybrid electric vehicle
ICE- internal combustion engine
ICV- internal combustion vehicle
IP- intellectual property
IRI- internally replenishing ions
kWh- kilowatt hour
L- liter
Li- Ion- lithium- ion ( batteries)
NEV- neighborhood electric vehicle
NGO- non- governmental organization ( i. e. non- profit)
NiMH- nickel metal hydride ( batteries)
OEM- original equipment manufacturer
OS- open source
PEM- proton exchange membrane
PHEV- plug- in hybrid electric vehicle
PSAT- powertrain systems analysis toolkit
PZEV- partial- zero emissions vehicle
RD& D- research, development, and demonstration
RFG- reformulated gasoline
SOC- ( battery) state of charge
SOHO- self- organizing hierarchical open ( system)
SULEV- super ultra- low emissions vehicle
ULEV- ultra- low emissions vehicle
WKTEC?- Who Killed the Electric Car? ( movie)
ZEV- zero emissions vehicle
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Table of Contents
Abstract....................................................................................................................... .......... 2
Chapter 1. Introduction & Motivation................................................................................... 1
Personal Motivators...................................................................................................... 1
Problem Context........................................................................................................... 4
Thesis Structure............................................................................................................ 8
Chapter 2. Re- Valuing Sustainable Personal Vehicles........................................................... 9
Introduction.................................................................................................................. 9
Alternatively Fueled Vehicles..................................................................................... 10
Competition, Cooperation, & Community................................................................. 12
Real & Perceived Needs............................................................................................. 16
A History of Failure: Vehicle Concepts, Prototypes, and Start- Ups........................... 17
The Scottish- Made Car (~ 1832).............................................................................. 17
Porsche Makes Hybrids (~ 1900)............................................................................. 17
Veggie Diesels ( 1893).............................................................................................. 18
Bucky's Blimps ( 1933)............................................................................................. 18
Tucker: A Man and his Nightmare ( 1948)................................................................ 19
A Plethora of Prototypes........................................................................................... 19
The Car that Couldn't ( 1996).................................................................................... 20
Hubris Motors: The Moxie to Try Again.................................................................. 21
Ecological Product Design and Consumer Value......................................................... 22
Biomimicry Within Industrial Ecosystems.............................................................. 24
Chapter 3. Sustainability & Related Metrics......................................................................... 26
Introduction.................................................................................................................. 26
Whole Systems Thinking............................................................................................. 26
Sustainability: A Perennial Philosophy?....................................................................... 29
Perceptions of Scarcity & Abundance.......................................................................... 35
Measuring Sustainability.............................................................................................. 37
Indicators of Eco- Effective Industrial Design.............................................................. 38
Chapter 4. Sustainable Energy, Fuel, & Vehicle Technologies.............................................. 41
Introduction.................................................................................................................. 41
Sustainable Energy Resources...................................................................................... 42
Sustainable Vehicle Energy Storage............................................................................. 43
Sustainable Vehicle Powertrains................................................................................... 50
Chapter 5. General Considerations in Vehicle Modeling....................................................... 55
Introduction.................................................................................................................. 55
Vehicle Modeling & Simulation................................................................................... 57
Historical Modeling Developments......................................................................... 58
Model Comparisons................................................................................................. 60
Uncertainties in Vehicle Modeling........................................................................... 62
Model- Based Design Techniques................................................................................. 63
Chapter 6. Technical & Market Readiness of Electric Vehicles............................................ 66
Introduction.................................................................................................................. 66
Electric Vehicle Weight & Road Load.......................................................................... 66
Achilles Heels: Driving Range & Recharge Time........................................................ 67
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Family Tree of Sustainable Vehicles............................................................................ 67
Powertrain Components & Configurations.................................................................. 69
Electric Motors......................................................................................................... 69
Power Electronics..................................................................................................... 71
Battery Selection...................................................................................................... 72
Battery Safety & Cycle Life..................................................................................... 72
Battery Cost.............................................................................................................. 75
Considerations of Vehicle Cost & Ownership.............................................................. 76
Energy Use & GHG Emissions.................................................................................... 79
Market Synergies for Electric Vehicles........................................................................ 80
Chapter 7. The Model- Based Design of Sustainable Systems............................................... 81
Introduction ................................................................................................................. 81
Emerging Technology & Product Value....................................................................... 81
The Elusive Fractal Tile Analysis................................................................................. 83
Sustainable Systems Modeling..................................................................................... 86
The Space Between: Integrating Design & Engineering.............................................. 88
Chapter 8. Prospects for Sustainable Personal Vehicles........................................................ 93
Introduction.................................................................................................................. 93
Bottlenecks in Technology Adoption........................................................................... 93
The Next Generation of Vehicle Design & Engineering.............................................. 95
Vehicle Design Considerations................................................................................... 97
Problems in Conventional Vehicle Design............................................................... 101
Innovating on Vehicle Design.................................................................................. 102
Eco- Effective Vehicle Design................................................................................... 105
The Vision................................................................................................................... 109
Chapter 9. Discussion & Future Work................................................................................... 112
Discussion of Thesis..................................................................................................... 112
Future Work.................................................................................................................. 112
Bibliography................................................................................................................... ...... 113
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Illustration Index
Illustration 1: Global military expenditures vs. the costs of addressing major human epidemics............. 6
Illustration 2: A simple mapping of social group interactions ( Constant, 1987)..................................... 12
Illustration 3: A map of the social decision making trilemma ( Vleck and Cvetkovich, 1989)................ 13
Illustration 4: The classic prisoner's dilemma, with two players A and B............................................... 14
Illustration 5: Ferdinand Porsche and his hybrid vehicles of the early 1900' s......................................... 18
Illustration 6: Side- and rear- view schematics from the Dymaxion patents ( Discoe, unpublished)........ 19
Illustration 7: GM's Urban EV circa 1973, GM/ MIT's ( G) race H- type, and Moeller's M200G.............. 20
Illustration 8: We know who killed the EV1, but can we evolve it into a car for the masses? .............. 20
Illustration 9: Tesla's Roadster, the Tango, and the Wrightspeed X1....................................................... 21
Illustration 10: H. T. Odum's Systems Language and electrical analogues ( Odum, 1971)...................... 28
Illustration 11: U. S. GDP vs. GPI and GDP/ cap vs. happiness Worldwide ( Inglehart, 1997). ............... 37
Illustration 12: Cut- away view of the fab tree hab and aerial view of solar path ( Joaquim, 2008). ....... 40
Illustration 13: Global useful energy ( i. e. exergy) fluxes of the Earth ( GCEP, 2007)............................. 42
Illustration 14: Battery ( left) and fuel cell ( right) fundamental ion transport mechanisms..................... 47
Illustration 15: Battery ( left) and fuel cell ( right), highlighting details of modules and MEA................ 47
Illustration 16: Battery pack ( left) and fuel cell system ( right) for vehicle applications......................... 48
Illustration 17: Flow diagram for a hydrogen fuel cell system ( left) and FCHEV packaging ( right)...... 49
Illustration 18: Vehicle production estimates from ZEV technical panel ( Kalhammer et al., 2007)....... 50
Illustration 19: Toyota's power split parallel HEV powertrain configuration ( Ehsani et al., 2005). ....... 51
Illustration 20: The pre- transmission parallel PHEV powertrain architecture ( Ehsani et al., 2005)....... 52
Illustration 21: The series PHEV ( or EREV) powertrain architecture ( Ehsani et al., 2005)................... 53
Illustration 22: An engineer's modeling chain ( left) and designer's opportunity map ( right).................. 56
Illustration 23: A timeline ( left) and listing ( right) of AFV simulators ( Hauer, 2001; Simpson, 2005).. 59
Illustration 24: The backward- facing modeling approach ( e. g. ADVISOR)........................................... 61
Illustration 25: The forward- facing modeling approach ( e. g. PSAT)...................................................... 61
Illustration 26: Levels in modeling detail, increasing in from left to right.............................................. 61
Illustration 27: The evolving family tree of personal automobility......................................................... 69
Illustration 28: Efficiency map for an AC motor and powertrain selection in ADVISOR...................... 71
Illustration 29: A Li- ion battery module w/ BMS wiring harness and board schematic.......................... 74
Illustration 30: Battery cycle life as a function of depth- of- discharge ( Rosencranz, 2005).................... 74
Illustration 31: Battery cost as a function of vehicle driving range ( Burke et al., 2007)......................... 75
Illustration 32: Will General Motors successively market the EREV, or pull the plug yet again? ......... 80
Illustration 33: All the public information you're likely to find on McDonough and Braungart's FTA.. 83
Illustration 34: A mostly qualitative FTA model of EREV eco- effectiveness ( Jungers, 2008)................ 85
Illustration 35: Odum's 12- step systems development ( left) and stable ecosystem algorithm ( right)..... 87
Illustration 36: Constructing a 2- D Sierpiński Gasket............................................................................. 89
Illustration 37: Clips from the seamless video of a rotating gasket of self- similar tetrahedron. ............ 89
Illustration 38: Creative ways of visualizing the Sierpiński Gasket in three spatial dimensions............ 90
Illustration 39: The view from above a computer rendering of the 3- D gasket ( see Footnote 14).......... 91
Illustration 40: The octaves and Platonic solids derived from our 3- D gasket ( see Footnote 14)........... 92
Illustration 41: The many university teams participating in the VDS student consortium...................... 96
Illustration 42: Common assumptions for average daily mileage and EV utility ( Markel, 2006)........... 98
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Illustration 43: Community- oriented Vision design concept, modeled by students at TU Delft........... 100
Illustration 44: Powertrain flow diagram and packaging sketch for Vision........................................... 100
Illustration 45: Aftershock, the first plug- in hybrid prototype built by Team Fate at UC Davis........... 104
Illustration 46: Vehicle design and marketing concepts by the Systems Architecture Team................. 106
Illustration 47: Considerations of tetrahedral structure in pyramids and diamond lattice..................... 107
Illustration 48: Original conception ( left), applied to a beetle ( center), and a similar concept ( right).. 107
Illustration 49: Calfee designs high- performance bamboo and hemp composite bikes......................... 108
Illustration 50: The VDS Vision prototype at the Torino Dream Expo, Summer 2008......................... 109
Illustration 51: A packaging sketch for the Vision powertrain and simulated performance.................. 110
Index of Tables
Table 1: Perennial philosophies concerning the trilemma of sustainability. ........................................... 30
Table 2: Land- use requirements for solar energy resource conversion ( NREL, 2004)............................ 43
Table 3: Energy densities by mass and weight for possible vehicle fuels ( Bambuca et al., 2006).......... 44
Table 4: Battery performance characteristics for several different chemistries ( Burke et al., 2007)....... 45
Table 5: Battery characteristics for various chemistries and vehicle types ( Burke et al., 2007)............. 46
Table 6: Energy use characteristics for general transport modes and personal BEV............................... 54
Table 7: Comparing the significant features of two leading software platforms ( Wilhelm, 2008).......... 60
Table 8: Determining the break- even gasoline price for an EV with 100 miles of AER......................... 78
Table 9: Electric vehicle energy use and GHG emissions for different platforms ( Burke et al., 2007)... 79
Table 10: Approximate dimensions for the initial Vision powertrain design. ....................................... 109
Table 11: Engineering estimates for Vision sustainability metrics vs. OEM standard. ......................... 111
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Chapter 1. Introduction & Motivation
Personal Motivators
I consider myself to be a serious student of engineering, though I have often been criticized for being
unrealistic and idealistic when speaking of my research and related interests. These two descriptors are
not commonly applied to engineers, which in my experience are among the most practical people in the
World. I eventually came to realize that my so- called idealism had less to do with my practice of
engineering, of which I am quite fond and modestly accomplished, and more to do with my relatively
unique perspective on engineering design and analysis. For example, my rejection of economics as the
predominant tool for constraining a given engineering problem seems particularly difficult for many
people to accept. As my first Systems Engineering professor put it, “ The objective is always to
minimize cost. There are no exceptions.” In a similar vein, another of my professors once quipped that,
“ Anyone can build a bridge, but an engineer can build a bridge at the lowest cost.”
Upon my discovery of the economic bottom line in engineering design, I briefly considered the pursuit
of a different livelihood, as I was already sitting on the left- most fence of the engineering discipline;
environmental engineering ( EE) is considered by a great many professional engineers ( outside of EE's)
to be the softest, simplest, and most liberal of the engineering disciplines. Rather than abandoning all
hope, in 2007 I decided to delve ever- deeper into the bowels of environmental engineering theory. It
was there, among many long forgotten ideas, that I found the work of Howard T. Odum. Nearly
everything Odum produced over his long and prolific academic career seems common sense to my
mind, and I have since adopted Odum's own term for the discipline and livelihood which it seems he
himself was branded, that of an ecological systems engineer. My perceptions of engineering and of
systems design have been drastically altered by Odum's deep and lucid insights, and I am now happy to
include myself among the growing global community of ecological systems engineers. I will forever be
indebted to Odum for his dedication and perseverance in the engineering discipline. Aided by further
deep insights from ( r) evolutionary designer R. Buckminster Fuller, philosopher Robert Pirsig, and
many other deeply concerned and contemplative individuals, I have made modest attempts at
understanding Odum's engineering analyses and representing them here from a fresh perspective.
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While I will concede from the start that much of my writing may seem unrealistic from the reader's
perspective, I will not admit to being an impractical person. On the contrary, I was raised in a modest,
hard- working, blue collar family. I have a miner for a father, a butcher for a mother, and a barber for an
older sister. Upon graduating from high school, I received a full scholarship to pursue a degree in
Environmental Resources Engineering ( ERE) at Humboldt State University ( HSU). The possibilities of
a clean vehicle future later attracted me here, to the ITS graduate program at the University of
California, Davis. After 21 years as a perpetual student, I am no more an expert of the World than I ever
have been, though I have certainly witnessed a great number of its intricacies, complexities, and the
local & global scales of the many challenges facing my generation. These challenges can be daunting
and intimidating at times, yet we have little choice but to face them head on and with the utmost self-criticality.
As humans we do much to create the World in which we live, and therefore we are all
responsible for the injustices, deficiencies, and degradations which exist as a result of our life choices.
My attempt to remove economic constraints from their current position of dominance over engineering
design and analysis is neither new nor novel. In Small is Beautiful, E. F. Schumacher clearly describes
the many dangers associated with rampant industrial and economic growth. The book was written in
1973, at a time when the U. S. was suffering its first national energy crisis. Unfortunately for most, the
global economic playing field still remains slanted in favor of larger players and phantom wealth1. John
Perkins describes the persistent problem of economic gospel quite clearly in his brutally honest and
self- critical novel, Confessions of an Economic HitMan ( p. xii).
“ Some would blame our current problems on an organized conspiracy. I wish it were so simple.
Members of a conspiracy can be rooted out and brought to justice. This system, however, is fueled by
something far more dangerous than conspiracy. It is driven not by a small band of men but by a
concept that has become accepted as gospel: the idea that all economic growth benefits humankind
and that the greater the growth, the more widespread the benefits. This belief also has a corollary: that
those people who excel at stoking the fires of economic growth should be exalted and rewarded, while
those born at the fringes are available for exploitation.
1 For more on this, read David Korten's latest novel, Agenda for a New Economy: From Phantom Wealth to Real Wealth.
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The concept is, of course, erroneous. We know that in many countries economic growth benefits
only a small portion of the population and may in fact result in increasingly desperate circumstances
for the majority. This effect is reinforced by the corollary belief that the captains of industry should
enjoy a special status, a belief that is the root of many of our current problems and is perhaps also the
reason why conspiracy theories abound. When men and women are rewarded for greed, greed becomes
a corrupting motivator. When we equate the gluttonous consumption of the earth's resources with a
status approaching sainthood, when we teach our children to emulate people who live unbalanced
lives, and when we define huge sections of the population as subservient to an elite minority, we ask for
trouble. And we get it.”
I quote this excerpt, directly and unedited, from the introduction of Perkins' novel. I believe that it
eloquently and succinctly describes the major problems with classic economic perspective that I wish
to address in this thesis. While many scholars have made similar accusations against the prevailing
view of free market economics, some even suggesting alternative approaches ( e. g. Hawken et al.,
1999), Perkins has done much to impact popular opinion by honestly reaching out to a mass audience.
He should be rewarded for his bravery, as such insights provide a great service to the country in support
of evaluating and repairing our many systemic economic failures. Though my reach is likely far more
limited than that of Perkins, I hope to provide an honest and self- critical assessment of the state of
energy and vehicle technology development, offering my thoughts on market failures and deterred
technology adoption by the automobile and energy sectors. Most importantly, I hope that the work of
this thesis may also help to inspire a new generation of conscientious technical designers & engineers.
As quoted from Albert Einstein at the beginning of this document, it seems critically important that the
majority of our time be spent clearly defining the problems we face before we rush to make an attempt
at solving them. Much academic effort has been spent in the search for solutions to the World's greatest
problems, though I would agree with Einstein's assertion that the vast majority of our time should be
spent first in the determination of more powerful questions. Too often, we approach our problems with
powerless questions that are loosely defined and arrive at solutions inadequately justified, sending well-intentioned
academics to act as the blind leading the blind. This thesis represents over 5 years of
graduate- level study, yet it is dedicated almost entirely to addressing the most fundamental questions of
the sustainability trilemma via simple definitions and my honest assessments of personal experience.
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Problem Context
Energy distribution and use- patterns of the modern era illustrate an inability of human systems to
efficiently use and adequately value energy resources. As one example, each day the people of the
World burn nearly 85 million barrels of petroleum ( EIA, 2008), much of which is consumed relatively
inefficiently in the form of gasoline for powering our vehicular transportation. In single occupant
vehicles ( SOV), about 1% of the fuel's embedded energy is actually used to move the driver. The
gasoline itself ( of which 99% is effectively wasted) is a toxic, carcinogenic substance that contaminates
water, air, and soil wherever it is used. And as with any geographically constrained and economically
constraining resource, continued dependency on gasoline will likely necessitate further global resource
conflicts ( e. g. military action and competitive resource exclusion). The total dominance of petroleum in
supplying the energy that builds and animates modern civilization provides an impressive growth
model with staggering implications, given the extent to which societies of the so- called developed
World now depend upon it.
It has long been obvious to some ( e. g. Hubbert, Diesel) that trends in global petroleum consumption are
unsustainable for long- term human development, yet there seems to still be little agreement as to what
a more sustainable energy system should look like, even among so- called energy experts. Extensive
and seemingly exhaustive technical reviews on the sustainability of energy and transportation have
been explored ( e. g. Tester et al., 2005; Hall, 2006). To the author's knowledge, a standard for
developing and applying sustainability benchmarks by which to set and assess technology development
goals and compare options has not yet been widely adopted at the time of this writing.
The identification of sustainable design benchmarks as critical elements of a larger technology
assessment framework is among the pursuits of my ongoing research. To be clear, I am not suggesting
that a scientific consensus be made before moving forward on issues of sustainable design and
regulation, since most reasonable people will understand that full consensus among large or diverse
groups of people is practically impossible to achieve, even within a narrow field of study. For
consensus decision making, the two pizza rule is about as good a guideline as exists for consensus-building;
you should rarely attempt to obtain full consensus on important, action- oriented decisions
from more people than it takes to eat two large pizzas ( i. e. ~ 6 to 8). If this sounds a lot like localized
governing, there's a reason: sustainable development is both implemented and measured at local scales.
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As described by Abraham Maslow some 65 years ago, the pursuit of universal human health and
actualization are probably the most reasonable motivators for continued development upon the Earth
( Maslow, 1943). As such, it would seem that information pertaining to the overall improvement of
human health in the long- term would be most highly valued by members of society. Despite such
hopeful longings for an evolutionary transition toward techno- cultural utopia, the dominant
technologies of our era have a longstanding reputation of compromising the health and resilience of
ecological systems ( ecosystems), even when these ecosystems provide critical and irreplaceable support
to human health. These technologies are deeply entrenched in industrial society as we know it, and thus
it is difficult for many to consider a society that exists without the presence of these dominating forces.
Many people resist techno- cultural evolution, opting rather to believe that it's “ better the devil we know
than the devil we don't.” However, the devil we know might be even worse than we think.
In response to catastrophic system failures, there is growing awareness of the many common techno-cultural
human practices that are unsustainable and which may threaten the existence of life as we have
come to know it on Earth. Whether by active choice or passive ignorance, humans can no longer be
afforded the luxury of destroying the natural World around them, assuming of course that we intend to
continue living on Earth in the future. In pursuit of more resilient and thriving living environments and
human communities, concepts pertaining to smart planning, intentional design, industrial ecology,
ecological engineering, and techno- cultural evolution are gathering widening popular support. In the
view of pioneer designer Sim Van der Ryn, a more homeostatic design perspective might aptly be
coined eco- logic ( Van der Ryn et al., 1996), as it draws its criteria primarily from the practices and
approaches developed in fields related to ecology. From this perspective, those systems designed upon
a premise necessitating infinite or unchecked growth will inevitably commit institutional suicide. In the
words of visionary technologist Amory Lovins, “ You cannot have infinite growth in a finite World.”
With the possible exception of very new, theoretical, or highly dangerous engineering projects, detailed
models of most human systems and their interfaces within the built and natural environments are rarely
described a priori, i. e. prior to their physical existence. There is generally no mandated requirement for
the development of highly detailed and dynamic systems analyses, due in part to the inherent
money/ time constraints of the average engineering project, and also to the general absence of the long-term
data required to fully characterize a complex system and its environment ( read also: money/ time
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constraints). However, the few exceptions that may exist are those projects related to military
offense/ defense, which due to their sensitive nature require highly detailed systems analysis,
integration, and control. Not coincidentally, these projects receive many orders of magnitude greater
financial support than all of the other fields of engineering combined, and thus they exist within a class
very much their own. You may wish to pause now and question the sense of such a value system, so
heavily biased towards aggression & dominance. Though many have made similar criticisms, the
numbers speak for themselves; Illustration 1 depicts the severity of inequity in funding for military vs.
nearly all other development projects, including the World's major epidemics. Each square shown in
this picture represents $ 1 billion in government spending. The total map represents annual World
military expenditures of approximately $ 780 billion U. S. ( WGI, 2001). If made available, these funds
could theoretically be used to help address our World's major systemic epidemics FOUR TIMES !
Illustration 1: Global military expenditures vs. the costs of addressing major human epidemics.
Turning now to the discussion of alternatively fueled vehicles, serious theoretical & prototypical design
efforts for vehicles and their fueling infrastructure have been ongoing for over 40 years. The term
alternatively fueled vehicles ( AFV) is used here as a broad category which describes full- performance
personal vehicle technologies that necessitate off- board fueling from unconventional fuels ( e. g.
electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels). By this definition, a hybrid ( e. g. the Prius) is not considered to be
an AFV unless it's engine were to be fueled by ethanol or hydrogen, for example. The relatively recent
introduction of battery electric vehicles in the mid- 1990' s marks the beginning of a shift from
theoretical & prototypical to applied & marketable engineering of mass- produced AFV, a critical point
in the evolution of the common personal vehicle.
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This point in time also marks the introduction of new and potentially disruptive technologies, new
vehicle use- patterns and mode distinctions, and new standards for measuring vehicle performance,
impacts, and consumer value. In the midst of much commotion and excitement over the future
possibilities of the AFV market, it is critically important that close attention be paid to the metrics by
which success and failure will be measured when considering technology specifications, market
performance, and environmental interactions. The definition of fundamental problems, at both local
and global scales, should be afforded the lion's share of our time and attention. If vehicle and fuel
alternatives do not achieve measurable improvements over the existing system, or if they do so at costs
that the average consumer and/ or the environment are not able to bare, then such alternatives will be
infeasible in the long- term, regardless of their perceived near- term political or industrial popularity ( i. e.
technologies du jour). California has already learned this lesson the hard way and should now be
sufficiently wary not to repeat the bad habits of her youth.
Those members of industry attempting to gage their company's performance in terms of system
sustainability, whether it be for economic, ethical, or regulatory reasons, now commonly perform what
are referred to as triple bottom line ( TBL) assessments, first developed for industry by John Elkington.
Institutional performance is measured using the Three E's of sustainable development: economy,
ecology, and equity. Institutions perform well on this assessment when they are able to demonstrate
improvements over prior performance, typically through the reduction of undesirable externalities. This
might include measurable reductions in annual expenditures, environmental pollutants ( often per unit
of utility or product), and/ or hazards to employees, consumers, or other social groups. In theory, these
three metrics of sustainability are intended to be equally weighted, though in practice the economic
metrics time- and- again receive significantly greater institutional attention. As William McDonough has
pointed out, these assessments may help institutions to do less bad in their business practices, but that
should not be equated with doing good. An additional drawback to this approach in institutional
performance evaluation is its backwards- facing nature, where sustainability metrics are applied ex post
facto, like most other end- of- year evaluations, with relatively little recourse for low performance and
only minimal feedback for improvement. Meanwhile, concerns for holistic design and sustainable
business are not institutionally adopted and afforded the same level of priority as are given economic
returns. Thus, the effective bottom line remains unchanged. At best, a TBL considered ex post facto
can only encourage small incremental shifts away from business- as- usual ( BAU) development.
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A similar yet distinctly novel concept for the institutional evaluation of sustainability is that of a triple
top line ( TTL) assessment, a concept pioneered by McDonough and Braungart ( McDonough et al.,
2002). A TTL product assessment and valuation occurs at the beginning of any design process,
prompting the consideration of impacts and decisions before any significant action is taken toward
development. To loosely paraphrase McDonough on the purpose of applying a TTL, it attempts to
remove the filter from the exhaust pipe and place it where it belongs: between the designer's ears. By
applying principles of eco- effective design, this thesis work attempts to perform a TTL assessment
through the model- based design of a sustainable personal vehicle, along the way estimating the
possible future impacts of widespread AFV introduction and use. The uncertainty of the assumptions
made at societal scales are large, and thus such projections should be considered only as plausible
scenarios in moving forward. Nevertheless, a consideration of the AFV as an emergent consumer
product provides an elucidating example for the development of a TTL valuation framework, enabling
the conception and realization of regionally appropriate technical design & engineering.
Thesis Structure
This thesis is comprised of six chapters, building from the introduction ( which you have presumably
just read) through to the discussion of research findings & future work. Collectively, these chapters
describe the conceptualization of a sustainable personal vehicle design, as well as the conditions under
which such a vehicle is likely to emerge and succeed within the California vehicle market. Chapter 2
explains the need for new value structures to account for economically intangible qualities and benefits
of AFV. Chapter 3 is an assessment of the sustainability concept and the metrics by which it may be
measured. Chapter 4 describes energy resources & technologies with good potential to enable
sustainable development. Chapter 5 describes a modeling approach for AFV. Chapter 6 describes the
technical and market readiness of EV. Chapter 7 details modeling efforts for sustainable systems in
general. Chapter 8 reviews the potential for a sustainable personal vehicle in the not- so- distant future.
Lastly, Chapter 9 concludes with a very brief summary of observations and areas for future work.
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Chapter 2. Re- Valuing Sustainable Personal Vehicles
Introduction
Engineering is an age- old tradition of solving problems, a practice that existed long before the wider
considerations and formalization of modern science. Even today as a branch of applied science, the
fundamental objectives of both engineering theory and practice remain rooted in the understanding &
alleviation of human needs and suffering. It seems useful to now consider a few common definitions
for those words which we most frequently use to define our field of engineering, followed by the
descriptions of three accomplished academic departments in this field. These descriptions are intended
to add clear context and minor justification for my analysis of AFV technology within such a practice
and collection of knowledge as Civil & Environmental Engineering ( CEE).
Civil
Applying to ordinary citizens, separately distinguished from the military ( Miller, 2008).
Environmental
External or surrounding conditions, and as reference to how they change ( Miller, 2008).
Engineering
The discipline dealing with the art or science of applying scientific knowledge to practical problems
( Miller, 2008).
Civil & Environmental Engineering, Departmental Descriptions
“ The Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering integrates research, education, and
professional service in areas related to civil infrastructure and the environment. We provide the
profession and academia with outstanding graduates who advance both engineering practice and
fundamental knowledge.” ( UCD, 2008)
“ MIT’s Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering is dedicated to balancing the built
environment with the natural World. In our research we seek to understand natural systems, to foster
the intelligent use of resources, and to design sustainable infrastructure systems.” ( MIT, 2008)
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“ Many people look at Civil Engineering and Environmental Engineering and see separate disciplines.
At Stanford, we see links and interdependencies through which some of the most difficult and urgent
problems facing mankind may be solved.” ( Stanford, 2008)
Proposals for a meta- discipline in sustainable engineering have been presented, with CEE students,
professors, and practitioners now leading the charge to develop more sustainable human systems.
Though more obvious among the theoretically- oriented programs, the intentions of sustainable systems
engineering have been wholly embraced by the visions & language used by our various academic
departments. Strong support from CEE professionals for groups such as Engineers Without Borders
tends to suggest that this inclination toward sustainable development is not an isolated phenomenon of
academia. It seems noteworthy to consider also that CEE itself is a combined discipline of study and
practice which was only considered distinct within the last ~ 20 years. Thus, it may be relatively
straightforward for our field to adapt to the large, multi- disciplinary challenges and engineering needs
of both the natural and built environments as compared to older and more isolated engineering
disciplines. Clearly, creative solutions should be encouraged in all fields related to engineering &
design as we attempt to address the many daunting problems currently impacting the Earth's biosphere.
Alternatively Fueled Vehicles
The relationship between humans and their personal vehicles is perhaps the most commonly
recognizable example of an economic activity that has been energetically subsidized by, and
consequently made dependent upon, fossil energy resources. The personal vehicle also serves as a
common metaphor for the freedoms and privileges afforded us by modern industrial civilization.
Though the benefits and freedoms that the personal vehicle affords us are large and commonly thought
to outweigh their relative social costs ( Delucchi, 1996), the profound impacts that short- sited fossil fuel
consumption and vehicle- oriented growth patterns have placed upon society and the environment seem
increasingly to over- shadow the perceived benefits of private vehicle ownership. This difference in
perspective presents major challenges when attempting to establish lifecycle boundaries and assign
consumer value. With economics as the common tool and language, all must be equated to the dollar.
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Though pervasive and often useful, the econometric approach to measuring lifecycle impact and
consumer preference often ignores all factors deemed intangible ( e. g. irreplaceable ecological resources
& services) or destabilizing within industrial BAU ( e. g. limiting/ eliminating economic growth,
introducing disruptive technologies). In a World where sustainable and regionally appropriate
development were considered as high priority, one might wonder if the personal vehicle would persist.
It seems possible that in such a World, the personal vehicle may cease to exist almost entirely, as
described in Ernest Callenbach's Ecotopia ( Callenbach, 1975). In regions like California, where
politicians and regulators are taking serious steps toward constraining the externalities of personal
vehicle design and use, there remains a sliver of hope that conventional vehicle technologies will
eventually evolve into more sustainable alternatives ( e. g. Sperling and Gordon, 2008; Sperling, 1995).
Indeed, it seems that if any region of the World is adequately positioned to produce AFV for the
consumer market, California is just such a place. Already the state has witnessed relatively significant
activity in early- adopter and niche AFV markets, while the political environment continues to be
relatively favorable for continued growth of the green car industry ( Calstart, 2004). However, several
nagging questions remain largely unanswered, such as: What type of AFV should consumers demand?
When will AFV be ready for market? How much will an AFV cost? and, What benefits will an AFV
provide? On a personal level, I encounter such questions often in my attempts to describe my work to
friends, colleagues, and acquaintances. Without missing a beat, they will frequently ask “ OK, but what
car should I buy?” It sometimes seems easier for me to hide in uncertainty and tell them that no good
options exist, but I would certainly prefer to give them useful information about how to select
sustainable personal vehicles for their various mobility needs, demanding new alternatives when their
needs are not adequately met by the incumbent vehicle & energy dealers. In addition to daily
conversations, I have also publicly presented my thoughts on the matter ( e. g. Jungers, 2007). Herein
lies a major thrust of my efforts; informing the populous by sharing practical information.
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Competition, Cooperation, & Community
Identifying patterns of natural resource consumption that would best support sustainable development
is an effort which itself is still misunderstood and hotly debated. The Rio Earth Summit of 1992, the
same year that MIT combined their Civil & Environmental Engineering departments ( MIT, 2008),
seems to be widely considered the beginning of a wider global conversation on the topic of sustainable
development, though localized criticisms of unsustainable industrialization date back at least to the
critiques of forest management by Hans Carl von Carlowitz ( 1645 – 1714) and to those on population
growth by Thomas Malthus ( 1766 – 1843). For all practical purposes, sustainability is only a useful
critique of development when it can be coaxed into a well- defined description. For the purposes of this
analysis, the definition of sustainability provided by C. S. Holling will be sufficient: “ Sustainability is
the capacity to create, test, and maintain adaptive capability.” ( Holling, 2001).
Though I most commonly refer to either systems or communities when speaking of organized groups
of interacting agents, it may be useful to consider three related, subtly differentiated, yet distinctly
functional terms for considering the dynamics of social groups: communities, systems, and
organizations. Each of these categories may be considered separately as the social locus for
technological practice and development ( Constant, 1987), though arguably the most useful and holistic
considerations involve all three as separate, overlapping elements. By mapping and sufficiently
describing these three social groups, balancing their various social, ecological, and economical needs
and values within society, it may be possible to determine what is fundamentally required in order to
sustain and evolve each social sector ( i. e. the Equity portion of sustainability concerns). Illustration 2
provides an example of such an overlapping map of social influence ( Constant, 1987).
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Illustration 2: A simple mapping of social group interactions ( Constant, 1987).
Along similar lines, a systems- level approach to analyzing social decision making and consequent
interactions can be demonstrated by a trilemma of social choices, represented by a simple Sierpinski
gasket ( Vleck and Cvetkovich, 1989). In Illustration 3, three idyllic principles of social choice are
depicted ( collective rationality, equal participation, and decisiveness) along with the three most
common approaches to social decision making ( consensus, majority rule, and dictatorship). For each of
these approaches, a violation occurs for one of the three idyllic principles ( i. e. at the perpendiculars).
While studying ERE at HSU for my undergraduate degree, I found that energy concepts were
notoriously difficult for average people, and even so- called experts, to grok. A common example is the
swapping of energy and power terminology, a mix- up I once heard uttered from the mouth of our
nation's Secretary of Energy, Spencer Abraham. Regardless, the basic consideration of social decision
making in the distribution of energy resources can be demonstrated quite simply by a single interaction
between two agents. For example, if one considers the prisoner's dilemma as a generic case of resource
allocation, each agent may choose one of two options when interacting with another agent; they may
choose to cooperate ( C) and share their resources completely, or they may choose to defect ( D) and
attempt to collect a larger share of resources. Illustration 4 provides a depiction of the decision matrix
formed by a two- agent allocation of resources in a classic case of the prisoner's dilemma2.
2 Richard Dawkins' take on the prisoner's dilemma: http:// video. google. com/ videoplay? docid=- 3494530275568693212.
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Illustration 3: A map of the social decision making trilemma ( Vleck and Cvetkovich, 1989).
One should note that the greatest collective good is achieved when both agents choose to cooperate ( C/
C), while the greatest individual good is achieved when one agent defects while the other chooses to
cooperate ( D/ C). When both agents choose to defect ( D/ D), the outcome is the least beneficial for both
agents, and thus the most universally unfavorable outcome. The term reciprocal altruism has been used
to denote the tendency of agents to choose cooperative relationships over defective ones, while selfish
or risk- averse individuals will generally choose to defect in hopes of maximizing personal gain or
minimizing loss, respectively. Through successive trials, it was found that the most successful strategy
for survival in this dilemma is also among the simplest. A four- line program, referred to by its creator
as Tit- for- Tat, was victorious in two rounds of play, simply by using the following three rules:
1. Cooperate when first interacting with another agent ( i. e. default to C).
2. Remember the agent's most recent resource selection choice ( either C or D).
3. Mimic this choice in resource selection; then return to Step 2.
Tit- for- Tat proved to be the best survival strategy in multiple rounds of simulation by demonstrating a
disposition toward cooperation, adapting quickly, and remembering only the outcome of its most recent
prior interaction. This brings to mind a quote attributed to Albert Schweitzer: “ Happiness is nothing
more than good health and a bad memory.” Could the survival and proliferation of life on Earth
possibly be so simple?
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Illustration 4: The classic prisoner's dilemma, with two players A and B.
Let's now consider an even more simple strategy for the prisoner's dilemma, one where both agents
make completely random choices regarding resource distribution. In such a scenario, the probability of
choosing to cooperate or defect should be ~ 50% ( P = 0.5), and thus the probability of receiving a
particular resource allocation ( 1, 2, 3, or 4) is ~ 25% ( P = 0.25), as it is the product of the 50%
probabilities of both agents' choices. In such a case, if the game is played over an extended period of
time, the average resource allocation per round for either agent should be about 2.5. Obviously, when
both agents choose to strictly defect or cooperate, they will each receive 2 or 3 units of resource,
respectively. The systems optimal survival strategy occurs when both agents cooperate, as this provides
the maximum combined resource allocation possible ( i. e. 6 units). In a system where agents do not
receive perfect information or feedback related to their choices and the outcome of resource allocation,
it is not surprising to imagine that resource distribution patterns will be sub- optimal, even for the
simplest of agent interactions.
It is my assertion that fossil energy subsidies and competitive capitalist market signals have provided
an over- incentive for individuals to defect in their choices of energy resource allocation. Often,
individual agents ( i. e. energy consumers) have limited resource portfolios from which to choose, they
may not have direct access to such resources, and few ( if any) opportunities to directly interact with
other agents. To address this system failure, one possible restructuring approach would allow for the
formation of renewable energy community cooperatives ( RECC). In forming such cooperatives,
members would be expected to work together in assessing the quantity, quality, and availability of their
local energy resources at the ecosystem level ( e. g. watershed). Investments in renewable energy
infrastructure could be made collectively, and the benefits of the cooperative would be shared among
members. Similar cooperatives have been formed by necessity in developing areas, though I believe
that with time we will come to see more of these groups, even within the developed World, with
members electing to adopt such models of resource ownership and management. To some degree,
municipal utility districts ( MUD) currently serve such niche services in many regions, though there is
generally not the level of active community participation and education that is envisioned here.
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Real & Perceived Needs
One of the first lessons in methods of human surveying is that of distinguishing between real and
perceived consumer choice and needs, if at all possible ( Mokhtarian, 2005). The problem is, how do
you really know what the consumer needs? For that matter, how does anyone really ever know what
they need? To approach this problem, it seems useful to first distinguish between basic needs and
convenience needs. In the first case, basic needs are those needs which pertain to physiology and the
actualization of the individual. Some may wish to refer to these needs as inalienable rights, though
others may wish to steer clear of such political wanderings. In either case, they are necessary to health.
One very influential consideration of human needs is that of Abraham Maslow's personal human
motivators, categorized as physical, safety, love, esteem, and self- actualization ( Maslow, 1943).
Maslow developed a loose theory of hierarchy based on the relative importance and successive nature
of these motivators. Though varying from person to person, Maslow believed that a person with
deficiencies in their low- level needs ( e. g. physical) would be less motivated to seek the attainment of
high- level needs ( e. g. esteem, self- actualization). A classic example is that of a hungry person who will
tend to be primarily concerned about finding their next meal, while other concerns may be deemed
insignificant until the person's hunger is satiated. In theory, long periods of unmet need may act to
effectively eliminate the interest and concern for meeting higher- level needs ( Maslow, 1943). Note that
none of these needs is inherently characterized by accumulated wealth or similar signs of social status.
Every person is born with different privileges, different social expectations, and varying degrees of
perceived personal entitlement. What one person perceives as their own basic personal needs may be
considered by someone else luxuries of convenience. This difference in opinion can make interpretation
difficult when considering the significance of consumer choice feedback. Demographic information,
such as income and education level, can only provide partial insights into the individual's perspective,
since much of this perspective may in fact stem from experiences that exist primarily or entirely within
their subconscious mind. This is especially significant for those of lower economic standing ( Maslow,
1943). For the purposes of this research, we will consider the personal ownership of any consumer
product to be a necessity if and only if ( iff) this product supports the fulfillment of one or more of
Maslow's five motivators. So far, this description is not particularly useful as it does not directly
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address acceptable or sufficient levels of consumption. Within the context of an individual person's life,
it should be more straightforward to designate those resources and consumer products which
effectively and sufficiently support basic motivating human needs. This assertion is commonly
reflected by introductory assignments in sustainability science and engineering courses, where students
are directed to calculate and evaluate their personal consumption patterns and environmental footprints.
A History of Failure: Vehicle Concepts, Prototypes, and Start- Ups
The concept of the alternative automobile is an old one. In fact, alternatives to standard ICE vehicles
have been under development since the beginning of automobility itself. RD& D of battery electrics,
hybrids, and other vehicle/ fuel alternatives have been ongoing since the early 1800' s. Unfortunately for
those of us seeking greater diversity in consumer choice, the ICV was first to reach mass market,
encouraging large capital investments for gasoline fueling infrastructure and subsequently out-competing
the electric powertrain for ~ 100 years. That's not to say there haven't been good alternatives
developed over the years, but the pressures of a competitive marketplace, combined with much
apparent consumer apathy and moving performance targets, have kept alternatives at a minimum.
The Scottish- Made Car (~ 1832)
The Scottish inventor Robert Anderson is credited with driving the first ever electric carriage, though
several soon followed suit. To my knowledge, this is the first and last car publicly developed in
Scotland, but I could easily be wrong. America quickly took the lead in electric vehicle manufacturing,
though as mentioned previously, no electric vehicle manufacturer ever succeeded in achieving the
widespread proliferation of vehicles that was attained by Ford and other ICV manufacturers of the era.
Porsche Makes Hybrids (~ 1900)
Ferdinand Porsche worked as an engineer for Jacob Lohrner's electric car company in Vienna around
the turn of the 20th century. Porsche was the first to develop a drivetrain based on hub- mounted electric
motors, and he incorporated them into hybrid drives with electric front hubs and a petrol- driven rear.
One of his hybrid vehicles may have also been the first all- wheel- drive automobile ( Illustration 5).
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Veggie Diesels ( 1893)
Rudolf Diesel first proposed his concept for a rational heat engine in 1892 ( Weather and Hunter, 1986).
His original efforts were aimed at powering this heat engine from coal dust, but this endeavor was not
successful. Eventually, Diesel developed the compression- ignition internal combustion engine and was
able to power it on liquid fuels. There is some evidence to suggest that Diesel later intended on
powering his engines from vegetable oils, and that he demonstrated the use of peanut oil as a renewable
replacement for petroleum fuel, though this assertion is poorly documented and inadequately
referenced in the popular literature. What is commonly known, however, is the ease with which the
diesel engine may be powered by such biologically derived oils. Case in point: I currently own and
operate a 2000 Volkswagen Golf TDI powered by biodiesel made from waste vegetable oil treated with
lye and mixed with ~ 10% methanol. Though no local fueling stations exist for biodiesel in the city of
Davis, I typically refuel at a semi- local station at the Solar Living Institute in Hopland.
Bucky's Blimps ( 1933)
One of the earliest, most fancifully conceived, and highly efficient demonstrations of holistic and
sustainable vehicle design can be found in R. Buckminster Fuller's Dymaxion Car series ( three vehicles
produced in all). The Dymaxions were designed for near- optimal drag resistance ( given the materials
available and modeling capabilities of that time), as the vehicles were intended to one day be functional
for transport by land, water, or air. As such, Fuller is reported to have referred to them as Omni-
Medium Transport ( Discoe, unpublished3). The Dymaxion was built to transport 10 passengers and a
3 Freelance computer engineer Ben Discoe, living the life in Hawaii: http:// www. washedashore. com/.
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Illustration 5: Ferdinand Porsche and his hybrid vehicles of the early 1900' s.
driver ( the second version incorporated a fold- out, queen- sized bed!), it reportedly achieved between
30 and 50 mpg fuel economy, weighed less than 1,000 lbs, and could travel at speeds up to 120 mph
powered by a 90 hp engine ( taken from an old Ford of the same era). A fatal crash in a rag- top version
of the Dymaxion called into question the safety of rear steering for large 3- wheeled vehicles.
Tucker: A Man and his Nightmare ( 1948)
Heaven only knows why Preston Tucker was so obsessed with the rear- mounted engine, but you have
to give him credit for putting up a hell of a fight against fierce opposition from the big, incumbent
automakers. His car was called the Tucker 48 ( after the model year in which it was made) and there
were only 51 ever built. For those interested to learn more about the Tucker, I recommend reading his
Open Letter to U. S. Newspapers, written by Preston Tucker and submitted on June 15, 19484. He
claimed to have raised $ 25 million in capital investments ( which would be ~ $ 250 million today), yet
he was still somehow unsuccessful in bringing the Tucker 48 to market. Ouch.
A Plethora of Prototypes
There have been more vehicle concepts produced by the major auto manufacturers than one could
easily remember. Though exciting and inspiring in their many various designs, ideations, and
aesthetics, the realization that such a staggering number of concepts have been produced and have not
seen the light of day is a sobering fact, if not downright depressing. A collection of such vehicular eye
candy, the more celebrated ( yet never commercialized) concepts through the late 1990' s have been
documented in Chris Rees's coffee table offering, Concept Cars ( Rees, 1999). A simple Google Image
4 From the Tucker historical preservation site: http:// www. tuckerclub. org/ html/ openletter. html.
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Illustration 6: Side- and rear- view schematics from the Dymaxion patents ( Discoe, unpublished).
search brings up many more and newer models, but why aren't we driving any of these marvelous
machines of engineering prowess? Cost is one candidate; technology deterrence from automakers is
another; and, both have been well considered ( e. g. Bunch and Smiley, 1992). Whatever the reasons,
before I die I wish to somehow acquire a vehicle that meets all of my most fanciful desires.
The Car that Couldn't ( 1996)
The EV1 had the lowest drag coefficient ( and was among the most efficient) of any production vehicle
ever built. General Motors was way ahead of the competition when they released the EV1 for lease in
1996 in Southern California and Arizona. However, they apparently had not properly considered their
business case for electric vehicles before bringing them to market, as the company eventually made the
decision to pull their support for the EV1 project and recalled all vehicles for demolition at the GM
Proving Grounds outside of Phoenix, AZ. This has been thoroughly documented in the soon- to- be cult
classic, Who Killed the Electric Car?, a movie more appropriately named Who Killed the EV1? Though
biased, accusatory, and one- sided, this film contains much historically accurate information.
Illustration 8: We know who killed the EV1, but can we evolve it into a car for the masses?
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Illustration 7: GM's Urban EV circa 1973, GM/ MIT's ( G) race H- type, and Moeller's M200G.
Hubris Motors: The Moxie to Try Again
As I've mentioned before, we're currently in the midst of America's second wave of electric vehicle
development fervor and yet another economic crisis. Each of the major automakers is taking a different
approach, hoping to prove they can provide ample supply to meet future demands of AFV. Nissan is the
only large company making a public push for BEV, though Better Place is giving everyone a run for
their money with their new, high- profile business model that looks more like a cell phone service than
anything Detroit has ever offered. GM is touting it's bigger, better, and flashier electric vehicle the Volt,
and the story holds that they will eventually manufacture it, though it is not a pure EV. They're calling it
an extended- range electric vehicle ( EREV), though the configuration is more commonly known as a
plug- in ( or pluggable) series hybrid electric vehicle ( SHEV). Honda is pushing for direct hydrogen fuel
cell electric vehicles ( FCEV), and they seem to have a more advanced fuel cell system than any of the
major competitors. Toyota is making small changes to their already impressive Prius platform, and
there are even rumors that they will make the Prius its own line using multiple platforms. Presumably,
Toyota may decide to offer multiple battery choices for these models, building further plug- in
capability ( i. e. > electrification) into their existing parallel hybrid electric vehicle ( HEV) architecture.
On the start- up side of the fence, there are ~ 40 small car companies ( and possibly more underground)
who are vying for the currently unmet electric vehicle demand. Some of the leaders include the now
infamous Tesla Roadster , the Washington- based Aptera 2e, the Oregon- made Tango, AC Propulsion's
Ebox ( converted from a Scion platform), and the Wrightspeed X1, based on the British- made Ariel
Atom platform. I can't afford any of these cars, and you likely can't either. Oh well. Keep demanding
the best, and who knows? Maybe you'll get it.
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Illustration 9: Tesla's Roadster, the Tango, and the Wrightspeed X1.
Ecological Product Design and Consumer Value
The widespread and still growing patterns of gasoline ICV use and its impacts are among the most
glaringly ubiquitous signs of social inequity, environmental degradation, and continued dysfunction of
modern global development now known to humanity. One critical leverage point of this man- made
problem seems to lie within the unmet economic need of alternatives to become competitive. As the
argument goes, poor cost competitiveness follows energy research and development ( RD& D)
underinvestment, continued technological and market stagnation, and so on ad infinitum ( Herzog et al.,
2001). As another example of green market stagnation, solar- electric photovoltaics ( PV) are a long
developed and well proven technology, yet the typical PV system is not yet cost- competitive with more
conventional forms of electricity production, such as coal or natural gas fired power plants. One
analysis has estimated that public investment of ~ $ 200 billion/ yr, or about 1/ 3 the current annual U. S.
energy budget, would eventually lower the purchasing price of PV electricity to that of electricity from
coal, with PV cost reductions and manufacturing improvements assumed to follow trends from the
computer chip industry of the 1950' s ( Nordhaus and Shellenberger, 2007). It seems feasible that other
so- called high technologies capable of storing and converting renewable energy resources to useful
work, such as electrochemical batteries and fuel cells, could follow similar cost reduction trends
relative to increases in public RD& D investments.
The proper design of more appropriate technologies requires a thorough consideration of a product's
lifecycle, including the context and environment in which it will be used and the often shifting needs of
those who will use it. This may take a long time, but as William McDonough is fond of saying,
“ Sustainability takes forever. That's the point. 5” What is appropriate and sustainable now will not
necessarily be so in the future, as the World and its inhabitants constantly change and shift and grow.
McDonough is extremely concerned about sustainable design and development, and his opinions seem
highly regarded in the upper echelons of both design theory and industrial management. McDonough's
theories on design are, from my perspective, just as pertinent to engineering as they are to design,
where engineering is considered the applications arm of much technical design. As a recent visiting
scholar in Civil & Environmental Engineering at Stanford, I think McDonough would tend to agree.
5 Among other places, McDonough made this statement during a speech to the 2000 Bioneers conference.
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R. Buckminster “ Bucky” Fuller was a man truly beyond his time in seeking to live the life of a designer
and engineer for a more sustainable World. In a league all his own, he has been referred to as a
solutioneer. Fuller has been quoted also as saying that “ a designer is an emerging synthesis of artist,
inventor, mechanic, objective economist, and evolutionary strategist. 6” As Bucky has described it ( now
too many years ago), appropriate and sustainable design requires a deep consideration of the human
experience and the context in which it is taking place. Falling short of gaining such awareness, we may
find ourselves living within a built environment that does not meet our collective or individual needs,
using technologies that do not improve our quality of life, and degrading natural resources and
environmental services in ways that cannot easily be justified nor remedied. It is both our greatest
opportunity and most difficult challenge as designers of the built environment to plan and build human
systems and institutions in a manner that supports and strengthens healthy living systems. As
McDonough so often points out, this requires the cultivation of love for all living things, for all time.
Resilience is a term sometimes used to describe a system's ability to bounce back from the effects of
stress or other disturbances within an environment ( Holling, 2001). The ecological theory of bouncing
back from environmental stresses has even been theoretically applied to the entire universe ( Gribbin,
1976). This so- called resilience of a system to perturbations is often considered a positive measure of a
system's adaptability, diversity, and connectedness. Complimentary to the concept of sustainability,
resilience has been observed and characterized for natural systems, particularly with respect to the
modeling of interactions within ecosystems ( e. g. Odum, 1971). One prevailing framework for
developing a complex and adaptive ecosystem model is to consider it as a nested, self- organizing,
hierarchical open ( SOHO) system ( Kay, 2002). An open system, like an ecosystem or built
environment, processes a continual flow of high quality energy ( Odum, 1994), which for both cases
enables living agents to self- organize and form increasingly complex nested structures. A large
perturbation ( e. g. catastrophe) may inflict stresses that exceed a system's threshold for resiliency,
thereby forcing system processes into states of nonlinear, chaotic, and/ or unpredictable behavior
( Holling, 2001). Full- functioning natural systems will resist such a movement away from equilibrium
by effectively dissipating energy inputs, sometimes through the emergence of higher levels of self-organization
( Kay, 2002; Odum, 1981). The mathematical description of this thermodynamic
observation, both for living and non- living systems, has been described many times, first by
6 From Bucky's protoge, J. Baldwin: http:// www. solutioneers. net/ solutioneering/ index. html.
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Schrodinger in 1943 and later by Odum, Jorgensen, Kay, Schneider and others. According to Odum, a
healthy and stable system will flow power maximally until such time as it is faced with a large
fluctuation in energy input, causing it to evolve to accommodate such changes in energy availability
( Odum, 1971). If the system is resilient and energy fluctuations are relatively minor, the system should
remain stable. However, if the energy fluctuations are extreme and/ or prolonged, the system will
experience evolutionary trends toward either greater or lesser agent- interaction diversity ( Odum, 1971).
Possibly the most basic underlying premise of sustainable design is that the existence and continuing
evolution of human life on this planet is something that should be sustained and enabled, an assumption
which will remain unchallenged in this thesis, though others have made such challenges ( e. g. Benatar,
2006). Thus, when viewing human development through the lens of sustainability, it is necessary to
identify those agents or processes within the system which do not support life. Basic examples of
unsustainable agents and processes are things like toxic materials and widespread homicide ( e. g. war),
respectively. By their very definitions, these two system characteristics do not support the organization
and perpetuation of diverse, nested life and thus are maladaptive to sustaining living systems. As such,
if a given techno- cultural practice cannot be implemented without inciting the use of persistent toxins
or war, as two common examples of maladaptive system attributes, then such a practice should likely
be considered an unnecessary aspect of the human condition and be gradually phased out of common
experience. In addition to evaluating human behavior and activities for their life- supporting qualities, it
is also necessary to closely examine the intricate workings of nature to better learn how these processes
might be supported, and in some cases mimicked, through sustainable development. Modeling human
systems to resemble analogues in nature is a practice now commonly referred to as biomimicry.
Biomimicry Within Industrial Ecosystems
Evaluating the regional sustainability of techno- cultural practices requires an assessment of their ability
to flow both energy and materials in quantities and at frequencies that are appropriate for the size and
functions of the local ecosystem( s). A techno- cultural practice that sufficiently matches its inputs and
outputs to the needs and functions of its surrounding environment could be described as a
biomimicking practice. The determination of success in biomimicking requires the development of
models that represent complex system configurations and interactions. These models are computational
representations of system agents, groups, interactions, and processes that can be used to simulate real
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system performance over time and under varying environmental conditions. Development of such
models requires a synergy of new and traditional methods in systems engineering & design.
Industrial ecology was first openly proposed as a concept for further inquiry in a 1989 article of
Scientific American ( Frosch et al., 1989), addressing the question of how an industry might function
were it to operate more like a natural ecosystem. In theory, such an industry would feed any remaining
unused energy or materials from one process directly into another, repeating this process of waste
recovery until nothing usable remained. When applied in succession toward its practical limits, this
would form a process chain with the greatest collective energy/ materials efficiency. The useful measure
of efficiency for such a process chain also requires the distinction and full accounting of energy types
by their ability to perform desirable work, thereby providing the basis for calculating energy dissipation
and useful production at each stage ( Odum, 1971). This distinction has been documented ( e. g. Kay,
2002), though the designation of quality and value for different energy resources remains an arguably
obscure and confusing area of research. Attempts at improving this situation employ the use of Odum's
terms ( e. g. exergy and emergy) to refer to more valuable and useful forms of energy. Returning to the
concept of biomimicry, we continue in search of natural analogues which may serve as thermodynamic
benchmarks for appropriate technology design and implementation, allowing for a consideration of
technology as if it were a living organism acting appropriately to its function, scale, and environment.
Introduced only within the last 10 years, the concept of biomimicry seems to be gaining relatively wide
support as a useful and holistic design perspective for observing those interactions taking place at the
interfaces between human and natural systems. In theory, natural systems produce the most efficient
processes for materials and energy utilization with respect to their evolved functions. As Johannes
Kepler once wrote, “ Nature uses as little as possible of anything.” Stated another way, natural process
serves as the highest known standard for industrial process efficiency. If a natural process appears to be
inefficient, it is probably more likely that the full form or function of the process is not yet clearly
understood. In a critically resource- constrained and over- populated World, this is an important
observation which cannot possibly be overstated. If global society can develop such a level of eco-logic
and eco- effectiveness in its pursuit of continued human development, it may be possible to
achieve global resource abundance for all, rather than simply more poverty and perceptions of scarcity
at the societal fringes. Thus, our need for sustainability measurement, the topic of our next chapter.
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Chapter 3. Sustainability & Related Metrics
Introduction
It may be commonly observed that the ideal of sustainability is widely appealing and frequently
referenced, but like any other abstract concept, it is only useful as a conceptual framework if it can be
clearly communicated, understood, applied, and measured. Those working within the energy- related
fields of academia ( myself included), industry, and policy are currently having a difficult time in clearly
describing the qualities of sustainable systems. It seems that most of us are hesitant and suspicious of
using terms like sustainability to serve as any sort of performance indicator, tending to prefer more
concrete or well- developed metrics of system performance, such as cost and utility. This hesitation does
not appear to exist for lack of interest or capability, as some of the most intelligent people I have yet
had the pleasure of meeting seem perpetually compelled, often to points of energetic exhaustion, by
their desire to sustain living systems and improve universal human conditions. Rather, I think the
overwhelming size, complexity, and even contradictions within the macroscope ( i. e. the unaided human
sensory level), coupled with the often unpredictable and seemingly erratic behavior of nested
processes, serve as common deterrents and excuses for our continued hesitation in adopting standard
methods, measures, and metrics of sustainability. I am now throwing my hat into the ring, attempting to
quantify and qualify the sustainability trilemma, coax it into a more useful form, and apply it to design.
Whole Systems Thinking
Holistic thought requires some degree of acknowledgment and identification of the individual's place as
a participant ( i. e. agent) within the living World, not just as passive or unbiased observer. Even within
the most controlled and well- defined experimental environments, the very act of observing has
measurable effects on the object of inquiry. Speaking to my own biases in observation, I am youthful
and idealistic, having little interest in activities supported by seemingly unstable resource consumption
and waste in modern societal development. Through my lens of observation, much human intelligence
and enthusiasm seem too often turned to jaded apathy as the result of valueless socialization, lifeless
economic interactions, and mindless resource consumption. Far too many people routinely submit their
lives to a captive participation in malignantly cancerous patterns of growth. If anything is ever to be
done to sustain a universally higher quality of human living condition, it will be necessary to first
solidify our understanding of, and moral obligation to, the conditions of sustainable living systems.
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From the perspective of systems theory, adaptive capability is related to the ease and reliability with
which the agents within a system collectively transform available energy and materials to perform
useful processes that enable and sustain self- organization ( Jorgensen et al., 2007). It is also a measure
of system resistance to perturbations and stress, a characteristic sometimes used to describe material
properties and referred to commonly as resilience ( Nicolis and Nicolis, 2007). A well- adapted system is
one which best utilizes local energy resources to optimally connect diverse agents coexisting within the
system ( Holling, 2001). The development of this description has deep roots in ecological systems
modeling ( Jorgensen, 2007), and thus an old and stable ecosystem may commonly be described as a
system which has developed high resilience over time. For this analysis, sustainable development is
considered to be the application of techno- cultural solutions toward the formation and stabilization of
adaptive connections between diverse members of living systems ( i. e. human techno- cultural
adaptation that enables the evolution of adaptive, resilient, and well- connected organisms).
Karl Ludwig von Bertalanffy was a biologist living and working at around the turn of the 20th century.
He is commonly credited with contributing some of the most fundamental scientific insights to the
initial development of General Systems theory, though his work is only scarcely documented. The
significance of Systems Theory to the technological development of the modern World cannot be
overstated, as it has influenced every field of applied science over the last 60+ years, contributing to the
development of advanced electronic and circuit theory, general network analysis, controls & feedback
theory, systems engineering, ecology, psychology, neuroscience, cybernetics, and so on. Not only has
this theory played a prevalent role in expanding technological development during this time, many of
its practitioners remain insistent of its potential to describe any natural system using the same general
methodologies for agent definition, interaction, and system topology.
A strong and vocal proponent of General Systems theory was Howard T. Odum, an ecological engineer
who spent most of his academic career researching and teaching at the University of Florida in
Gainesville. He authored and co- authored several textbooks in the field of Systems Ecology, the most
famous is likely his undergraduate text, Environment, Power and Society. Among his many
contributions to the field, arguably the most noteworthy was his categorization of various agents based
on their fundamental behavior and subsequent formalization of systems language ( Odum, 1971).
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Through this work, Odum was among the first people to develop energetic analogs and equivalent
circuits ( Illustration 10) in his attempts to predict energy/ material flows in natural and human systems.
In engineering practice, issues of cost tend to outweigh even considerations of the universally
fundamental 2nd Law of Thermodynamics. For example, improvements in energy quality or efficiency
are most often only considered to be as valuable as their relative cost- effectiveness ( Brodyansky, 1994).
One difficulty in changing such perceptions is the coexistence of corollary perceptions that are
pervasive in science. I have observed that many scientists are hesitant, if not downright hostile, to
accept universal standards of quality and value. If they do, it is generally coupled in some way to
economics. In my not- so- humble opinion, pure scientists have no business biasing their work with
judgments of economic value, assuming of course that scientific discovery itself is their primary
motivator! However, engineering as an applied science necessitates the incorporation of real- world
value structures, including those values imposed by the rules of economics. At the same time, there are
many important features of life with high quality and low economic value ( e. g. friends, family, food).
As Luther & Janet say, “ The best things in life are free.” Economics should not be the predominant
metric by which quality and value are measured in life. Hesitation to adopt more holistic measures and
indicators will result in continued failure at full- cost accounting and fall far short of full- functioning
systems, leaving out those many ( worthless?) bits of life that make human life worth living.
Admittedly, there are many straightforward rationales for placing cost- effectiveness highest among
priorities in engineering development. First of all, little question ( at least in the mainstream) has ever
really been given to whether or not new growth and development is actually needed, much less a good
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Illustration 10: H. T. Odum's Systems Language and electrical analogues ( Odum, 1971).
thing. In this way, economic growth is almost universally assumed to be a natural good. Unspoken
assumptions build; development is implicitly presumed to be beneficial; technological advancements
are assumed always to be improvements over what existed previously; and, the services provided are
somehow readily deemed necessary and sufficient to the lives of local inhabitants ( Bookchin, 2005). A
no build option is rarely considered with any serious scrutiny, despite its environmentally regulated
requirements. Thus, popular perspective is that development and growth inextricable, natural goods.
And thus development continues as it typically has, much like a highly competitive game without
consistently explicit rules, boundaries, or values. “..., we ask for trouble. And we get it.” ( p. 3)
Sustainability: A Perennial Philosophy?
As mentioned in Chapter 2 ( Competition, Cooperation, & Community, Illustration 3), there exists ( at
least in theory) a trilemma of human experience that can be categorized for different social groups. In
that section, I mentioned also the three idyllic principles of social decision making: collective
rationality, equal participation, and decisiveness. Each principle is violated by the common
approaches to group decision making ( i. e. dictatorship, majority rule, and consensus, respectively).
This problem of balancing three spheres of human experience is quite common, seeming to date back
as far as human history itself. Table 1 provides a theoretical comparison of some ( relatively) common
trilemmas ( i. e. trinities of value) that have been used traditionally to segment and categorize common
human experience. These trinities seem to be apparent and somewhat consistent across cultures, socio-economic-
political barriers, space, and time. The significance of recognizing similarities in these three
categories of the age- old trilemma is not entirely self- evident, though presumably such recognition
may assist in the further structuring of system models and the categorization of useful knowledge.
Dan Kammen and Michael Dove have written a seminal paper ( The Virtues of Mundane Science) that
outlines the need for scientists and academics to more fully embrace and accept the challenge of the
mundane, addressing those problems most commonly faced by the majority of our World's population,
each and every day. Part of this challenge requires a shift in priority toward the design for the other
90%, recognizing and accepting that modern design efforts have until now been focused primarily on
development that improves life for only the richest 10% of the World's population7. Among other
7 Learn more about this current design movement online by visiting http:// other90. cooperhewitt. org/.
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hurdles, this requires that individuals working in academia begin to reject long- standing biases toward
purely high- tech or cutting- edge research. Much of the World's mortality and illness is entirely
preventable, caused by unsafe conditions that can be remedied with relatively small amounts of money,
using existing skills and available knowledge ( Kammen and Dove, 1997). Thus, if we hope to address
the problem of the mundane, we must accept Perkin's challenge to deny greed as our primary motivator
and seek RD& D opportunities that more adequately address mundane problems.
Table 1: Perennial philosophies concerning the trilemma of sustainability.
Over the past six years, I have been involved with an engineering association whose stated mission is to
address these very issues of the mundane. There are several such organizations, but the one I am most
familiar with through personal involvement is called Engineers Without Borders ( EWB). This group
seeks to engage engineers in local, sustainable projects that are initiated by communities around the
World, primarily in developing countries. Though chronically under- funded and bogged down in
bureaucracies at all levels ( not unlike most NGO), their work theoretically serves to train a new
generation of conscientious engineers, providing them with valuable real- world experiences. I've been
involved with a number of EWB projects around the World, and though I believe it is far from a perfect
solution in and of itself, the vision and ethic of the association is very much in line with the concepts of
mundane science and appropriate technology. However, like all NGO work, EWB projects can actually
serve to spread further injustice if not approached with respect, humility, and solidarity. Without these
precepts, Western engineers will perpetuate such fallacies as the white man's burden and noble savage.
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Frameworks of Reality Elements of Framework
Taoism ( ancient China) yin yang tao
body light spirit
Platonic Metaphysics (~ 400 BC) matter mind spirit
Holy Trinity ( Christianity) son father holy ghost
existence relatedness growth
static dynamic value
matter consciousness energy
Energy Systems Modeling ( Odum, 1994) storage work source
self other whole
Eco- Effectiveness ( McDonough et al., 2002) economy equity ecology
Merkabah ( ancient Hebrew, mysticism)
Personal Motivation ( Alderfer, 1972)
Metaphysics of Quality ( Pirsig, 1974)
Psychoenergetic Systems ( Krippner, 1979)
Sense & Soul ( Wilber, 1998)
One fundamental culprit of perception with regard to widespread societal neglect of the human
condition may in fact lie with the West's very concept of space and time. An interesting critique of our
distinctly Western perceptions can be found in Edward Wachtel's To an Eye in a Fixed Position: Glass,
Art and Vision. Wachtel describes the western perspective in art as a trained perception that has largely
influenced the social lens of western development, rather than being simply a stylized artistic
representation of little consequence ( Wachtel, 1995). He describes the Western view of physical
existence as an empty cardboard box of 3 spatial dimensions ( sans cardboard), flowing along a one-dimensional
current of time that is commonly assumed to be linearly progressing in a single direction.
Einstein made similar descriptions of Western perspective, noting that theoretically the distinction and
relationship of space and time is not easily distinguished, as evidenced by the common use in physics
of an inseparable continuum known as space- time. To Wachtel, the western perspective seeks to reduce
time to an instant of non- existence, depicted in western perspective art by a 3- dimensional rendering
without any sense of movement or the passing of time ( Wachtel, 1995). By placing squarish frames
around our worldly perceptions, we find ourselves living in squarish buildings, driving in squarish cars,
and living squarish lives. How square is that?
Generally speaking, quickly squared is an apt description of the perspective of Western technological
development; the simplest elimination of time as it exists between a subject and its object of need or
desire, connecting discrete points with straight lines. An interesting paradox forms from this pursuit as
an unattainable goal, with the ever- changing and expanding perceptions of human need and desire,
along with fluctuations in the perceived usefulness of skills and knowledge. A common example of this
phenomenon is evidenced by energy efficiency improvements that serve only to increase levels of
human consumption and activity ( Hawken et al., 1999). If Western perspective is truly intent on
eliminating time from the human experience, then it may be better served to incorporate more Eastern
philosophical perspectives such as meditation, mindfulness, and presence. Otherwise, we will likely
witness the further proliferation of time- saving conveniences, rushing us straight into a square grave.
Another interesting and seemingly plausible culprit in this rush- to- the- end Western perspective dates
back to the early development of arithmetic. In its very simplest forms, mathematics requires the
mental abstraction of numerical tools from the natural worldly counterparts from which they were
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originally born. Though indeed powerful, mathematics serves just as any other human tool; its value
should be measured by its ability to provide benefits to individuals and society. If only used for causing
headaches and havoc, then why bother with all the math? Why indeed. A call for reform has been made
to reduce the level of abstraction that exists between nature and its mathematical representations
( Hamvas, unpublished8). One might readily see how an abstracted, valueless mathematical perspective
might complicate its appropriate applications ( e. g. economics, sociology, ecology).
The issue of technology appropriateness could easily fill many volumes, and much like other seemingly
subjective considerations, it can also be widely debated from a number of different perspectives. Since
the vast majority of scientific and engineering publications neglect to attempt any explicit discussion of
their underlying philosophies or metaphysical assumptions, I do not feel overwhelmingly compelled to
present here an exhaustive review of the different philosophical bridges linking science, technology,
and engineering, though there are numerous texts which have made such attempts ( e. g. Mitcham,
1994). I do, however, feel compelled to explicitly describe the particular philosophy of technology that
I believe to be most fundamental to issues of sustainable engineering and development. This
perspective follows a lineage of perennial philosophy, a selection and synthesis of those good things
that exist in natural systems, and the identification and correction of risky or harmful systemic failures.
The English word technology derives from the Greek word technologia, which is a compound of two
terms: techne, which is often translated as art or craft, and logos, which can be translated as the study,
description, or logic of some thing ( Miller et al., 2008). In the modern era, it can be difficult to envision
technology as the study of art or craft. More commonly, those who choose to study art and craft
explicitly will probably find themselves to be less involved with modern scientific and technological
development than those who would tend to entirely ignore what we consider to be art and craft today.
The Greek consideration of technologia may be made more clear through a comparison of its root
techne with the term most commonly associated with the modern definition of knowledge, episteme. In
this sense, it is useful to consider techne as a measure of human skill, while episteme serves as a
measure of human understanding. The pursuit of modern technological development relies upon some
degree of balancing human skill with our evolving understanding of nature. To Aristotle, this balance
8 Provides an interesting account of Hermetic thinking: http:// www. tradicio. org/ english/ hamvastabulasmaragdina. htm.
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could be found through the pursuit of a life grounded in the limits of the common good of the
individual, their family, and their greater community ( Bookchin, 2005). However, such Aristotelean
limits of equitably serving human needs do not appear widely self- evident in modern societies.
Concerning appropriate technology, the philosophy and application of which must be designed to
accommodate the ecological limits of the Earth, let us also consider the roots of ecology. The word
ecology is also derived from Greek, stemming from oikos which means household and logos, or
description. Ecology first developed as the study of life, its distribution, and the complex interactions
occurring between agents within the Earth's biosphere. The study of Ecology has now grown beyond
applications in the biosphere to encompass a more general and scalable approach for describing the
apparent self- organization of natural systems to process energy, materials, and information, though its
most common application remains the study of interactions between organisms at the Earth's surface.
After billions of years of evolutionary development, life on Earth has become efficient in its persistence
and proliferation. Seemingly operating beyond the capacities of most ecological checks and balances,
the human species is embarking upon a rate of degradation of energy and material resources within the
biosphere at scales that are often difficult to practically comprehend. This degradation compromises the
Earth's very ability to serve as a continued home to other living organisms and systems, as evidenced
by accelerating rates of species extinction worldwide.
If sustainable development can be thought of as a societal re- structuring that supports the common
good of the individual, the organizations to which it belongs, and its associated networks, then
appropriate technology can be considered as one half of the techno- cultural means to that end ( where
supportive community culture provides the second half). The intricate interdependencies between
technology and culture in the modern World make the two considerations nearly impossible to cleanly
separate from one another, and thus it seems generally more useful to simply describe the techno-cultural
aspects of society than to consider either technology or culture in isolation, pretending perhaps
that the influences of one on the other are minor. The distinction of technology from the society it is
meant to serve is a seemingly impossible task, more so each day as ever- growing numbers of human
interactions are predicated upon the required use of technological agents within built environments.
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As Murray Bookchin described it, today's technological society seems much like a runaway car with
the questionable presence of a driver ( Bookchin, 2005). To Bookchin, it's a split dilemma: either there
is no driver ( i. e. humanity is effectively dead), and thus technological society is being propelled
forward outside of human control; or, the driver alive but asleep at the wheel, suggesting that it may be
possible to awaken humanity from its slumber. Bookchin assumes this latter situation to be the case. To
Bookchin's mind, a wake- up call might be delivered through the effective separation and distinction of
social value and necessity from technological development, where the former primarily evokes the
latter and the necessary and sufficient limits of consumption in pursuit of the good life may again be
identified and ultimately achieved ( Bookchin, 2005).
To follow Bookchin's lead, attempting to separate social from technological development, a
straightforward concept that has been often considered, is to tread a rough path. For instance, it is often
the stated purpose of government policy and regulatory action to guide technological development that
best meets the needs of human societies and the environment. However, it seems that as long as the
desire for money and stature serve as our primary motivators, then a sufficient consideration of social
and environmental implications is unlikely to result. A societal bias also exists in favor of value- free
and technology- neutral approaches to innovation and development. These biases of the modern age can
be identified by their misrepresentation of technics as pure science ( Bookchin, 2005) or as the
designation of technology as obviously good ( similar to mathematics, economics, or development).
Though Bookchin's metaphor for the current state of humanity is fitting for the topic of this thesis, I
nevertheless prefer the imagery of a man ( note: this my seem sexist, but in this case it's a compliment
to women), wandering through the desert alone. Not only does this man not understand how he came to
be in this desert, he appears to have lost any sense of direction or intuition for finding his way out.
Despite having a map in one hand and compass in the other, he wanders confidently for a long time,
further and further in the wrong direction. The heat & hostility of the desert create stress & anxiety, as
the man stumbles and clambers in delusional search for the familiarity of another place and time.
Though he knows not where he is or why, he continues to wander, faster and with more frustration,
until eventually he collapses and surrenders to this cruel situation and his inevitable demise. This is the
desert of the mind, full of fear, scarcity, and maddening frustrations in an unfamiliar land.
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My interpretations of technological development have led me to a philosophy of sustainable
development that is premised upon a careful consideration and understanding of ecology in developing
a solution to the sustainability trilemma. From this approach, rules of ecology serve to govern the
economic and social needs of human systems. Economic knowledge is concerned with an
understanding of the need for resource collection and the cultivation necessary for complex evolution
( e. g. emergence) within diverse living systems. In addition, the equitable distribution of resources,
including knowledge, enables capacity- building within the system for sufficient resource processing
and growth. The energy and material resources are used as equitably and efficiently as possible, then
reinvested and stored within the system for future use. A stable, evolved system will achieve maximum
power flow by evenly dividing resources among maintenance needs ( equity) and stored investments
( economy). This has been described as the Maximum Power Principle ( e. g. Cai et al., 2006).
Perceptions of Scarcity & Abundance
William McDonough has often made reference to Western society's fixation with resource scarcity,
despite the Earth's abundant stocks of known renewable and recyclable resources and services, all of
which nature provides free of charge. McDonough makes a plea to his audience to adopt technological
development and social networking that foster abundance rather than the manipulation and control of
scarce resources for greater economic profit. In today's knowledge- based economy, the very
understanding of technology itself is often treated as a scarce and proprietary resource, with the value
of knowledge commonly placed higher, or even in substitution for, that of practical skills ( Bookchin,
2005). Odum referred often to the evolutionary superiority of knowledge resources and the need for
knowledge storage ( Odum, 1971). Inequitable distribution of technical skill and/ or knowledge leads to
technological development that fosters perceptions of scarcity, and vice versa ( Bookchin, 2005).
However, in today's technologically advanced global economy, it is becoming increasingly clear to
most conscious individuals that perceptions of resource scarcity are more a tool for societal control and
repression than real physical constraints. A prime demonstration of this reality is provided by MIT's
now famous One Laptop Per Child9 program. Not only can shared resources meet the global physical
needs of our entire human community, but quite likely higher- order, knowledge- based needs as well.
9 Amazing MIT project in collaboration with Continuum Design: http:// www. laptop. org/.
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I don't believe in zero- sum gain, and neither did Paul Shepard apparently. He describes the Western
developmental perspective as stemming from the desert's edges ( Shepard, 1982), where the seed of our
modern civilized perceptions is buried deep in the sands of the World's great deserts ( e. g. Egypt, Sumer,
Assyria, Palestine, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia). As a son of the desert ( Mojave, CA), I can relate to
many of Shepard's descriptions of the desert experience and their metaphorical relationship to our
scarce Western perspective. The desert is a powerful and awesome place, where senses can be
overwhelmed, ironically, by both silence and emptiness. As Shephard puts it “... - too little life, too
much heat, too little water, too much sky ... its hidden life and conspicuous shapes seem at once to
dwarf and to emphasize the human figure.” ( Shephard, 1982) Since the seed of human societal
development was planted in the desert, and there remained for much of early human existence on Earth,
it is perhaps not surprising that presumptions of scarcity, fear of lack, the inevitability of struggle, and
the negligence of ecological process remain so ingrained in current societal orientations. Obvious
consequences of these perceptions include sub- optimal agent interactions that require cheating,
hording, stock- piling, competitive exclusion, and other aggressive tactics for strategic survival.
Though ubiquitously present in the subconscious yet rarely addressed directly, the perception of
scarcity is neither universally accepted nor entirely uncontested. Among its more vocal observers,
McDonough speaks often of the need for a shift in emphasis and value toward perceptions of
abundance. Such a World view would institutionalize concepts such as up- cycling and up- grading ( i. e.
continuously converting resources into ever- more- useful, valuable forms), replacing less bad efforts in
eco- efficient industrial process with full re- designs that are actually eco- effective ( i. e. waste = food,
using current solar energy income, and universally respecting diversity). Adoption of these concepts
will presumably help to begin this shift away from a World dominated by limits and constraints
( McDonough and Braungart, 2000). Shephard describes such ecological thinking as that which
“ reveals the self ennobled and extended rather than threatened, as part of the landscape and the
ecosystem ... We must affirm that the World is a being, a part of our own body.” ( Shepard, 1982)
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Measuring Sustainability
In designing and assessing a fully globalized energy system, many meaningful factors of performance,
such as social equity and human health, appear to remain abysmally unaccounted for. A common
scapegoat for such negligence is the historical use of single- variable economic performance metrics,
such as the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP), accounting for economic interactions but not explicitly
considering the relative value to society, like impacts to human health and the environment. One
economic metric proposed to replace the GDP is the Gini Coefficient, which measures the distribution
of wealth across a given population, enabling the consideration of regional economic equality. Yet
another metric for the consideration of human development is the Genuine Progress Indicator ( GPI),
which is intended to evaluate the sustainability of human progress from a more holistic, multi- variable
perspective through the measurement of biological productivity & human health and development.
Widespread use and evaluation of such indicators will be integral to the pursuit of sustainable human
development. Another interesting metric is the Gross National Happiness ( GNH) index, developed by
the King of Bhutan in 1972. For the peaceniks among us, there is also the Global Peace Index ( also
GPI), where Norway so far is ranked # 1. There are at least 14 common alternative metrics to the GDP
( Ferguson, 2007), while probably many more exist but have not yet been widely considered.
Illustration 11 demonstrates the difference in trends of GDP and GPI in the U. S. over time, as well as
the correlation between GDP and happiness. Notice that there seems to be some threshold of economic
activity beyond which very little if any increases in happiness are observed. These trend seems to
suggest that inherently sufficient levels of consumption may exist and should be further explored.
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Illustration 11: U. S. GDP vs. GPI and GDP/ cap vs. happiness Worldwide ( Inglehart, 1997).
Regional indicators of sustainability are sensitive to spatial and temporal scales and dynamics,
sometimes varying locally as contradicting techno- cultural characteristics ( e. g. jobs vs. degradation).
These conflicts have proved to be quite difficult to overcome for many institutions and political
agencies in their attempts at adopting standard indicators. Rather than adding excessively to the already
verbose theoretical discussions on such indicators ( e. g. Hall, 2006), I will simply state that specific
indicators should be selected at the community, system, or organizational level based on group needs,
desired outcomes, and existing states of performance. Also, these indicators should not be applied like a
TBL is applied in business, assessing the impacts of industrial activity at the end of the line. Rather,
assessment in support of more eco- effective industrial ecologies will require sustainability indicators
and guidelines that can be applied at the very beginning of industrial design.
Indicators of Eco- Effective Industrial Design
Engineers, economists, and others who work with project planning and development are undoubtedly
familiar with the assessment of cost- benefit ratios. If the costs outweigh the benefits over the lifetime
of the project, or over some acceptable period of payback, then the project is typically considered to be
a non- starter. By and large, these cost- benefit assessments compare dollars invested to dollars returned
on the investment, with lots of assumptions about interest rates and acceptable payback periods and so
on. In considering the eco- costs, or costs of industrial activity to the environment, consideration is
generally only given to the cost paid by the institution to secure resources and conform with
environmental regulations. There is an incentive to make the process as clean as it needs to be in order
to meet regulated limits, but generally no cleaner, as this would presumably cost more money and thus
there is an economic disincentive. In some cases, compliance with environmental regulations is
actually perceived to be more costly than the regulatory fines, in which case some may opt to save
money through non- conformity. Actual costs to the environment and the organisms living within it
( including humans) are seldom fully assessed and accounted for in a classical cost- benefit analysis.
In an attempt to better account for eco- costs, one approach is to determine an institution's eco-efficiency.
In general, this approach requires that the institution estimate the environmental impacts of
its industrial processes all along its supply chain, or from cradle- to- grave. The eco- efficiency of the
institution is determined as the ratio of the total value derived from the product divided by the total
economic costs plus the total eco- costs incurred over the entire supply/ process chain. The common
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mainstay of eco- efficient processing the use of the 3- R's: reduce, reuse, and recycle. For industrial
products which require many inputs from different suppliers ( e. g. automobiles), it may be quite difficult
to accurately estimate and limit the impacts of a long and varied supply chain. While this approach
does more to help address sustainability issues and environmental degradation than simple cost- benefit
analyses, it nevertheless falls short of ensuring truly sustainable industrial processes in the long- term.
The reason that eco- efficiency falls short of making significantly large and sustainable improvements in
industrial performance is that it follows the same line of reasoning and holds a similar perspective to
that of classic cost- benefit assessments. That is to say, it still views the environment as a collection of
extractable and degradable resources, attempting to reduce environmental impacts as long as economic
gains remain in tact. As Albert Einstein famously pointed out, it is difficult ( if not impossible) to solve
a crisis from the same perspective that created it in the first place. Thus, an entirely new perspective
will be needed in order to transform the industrial processes and business practices that have long
existed into sufficiently safe, healthy, and ecologically sustainable means of economic production.
McDonough refers to such means of production as being eco- effective, a term he uses to mean that
these approaches are effective at mimicking natural ecological form, function, and frequency.
Sustainability metrics might effectively be categorized by the three areas of sustainability concern that
were previously mentioned: ecology, economy, and equity. Metrics of ecological sustainability are
those which pertain mostly to lifecycle function, agent interactions, and placement within the built and
natural environments ( i. e. topologies). Such metrics include degrees of mode separation (% separated),
longevity of use ( years), consumer accessibility (% of population), and connectivity (% connected).
Metrics of economic sustainability are those which pertain mostly to lifecycle product costs, materials
movement, and built capacity & storage. Such metrics include population costs ($/ person), mass- miles
( kg- miles traveled), reusability (% reusable), recyclability (% recyclable), and knowledge storage &
accessibility ( gigabytes, kilobytes/ s). Metrics of equitable sustainability are those which pertain mostly
to lifecycle distributions, energy & work requirements, and health & safety. Such metrics include direct
solar energy fraction (% solar), energy efficiency & effectiveness (% sufficiency), product safety &
mortality ( injuries/ year, deaths/ year), toxicity ( mg/ kg dose response), and the support of skillful
livelihood (% skilled workers). Using metrics such as these, it may be possible to ascertain the relative
sustainability of a given product or system, ideally during the design phase of either.
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Some people will likely argue that eco- effectiveness presents an extremist view, that industry cannot
possibly be expected to mitigate the effects of resource extraction and use, and that considerations of
industrial eco- effectiveness are nothing more than pretentious academic exercises in mental
masturbation. From the perspective of most Western development, where cost- benefit value structures
and zero- sum assumptions of resource scarcity are the norm and not the exception, I cannot say that I
would blame them for saying so. Given the state of awareness on these matters, I remain less than
hopeful regarding the ability of modern industry to quickly adopt eco- effective practices. However,
should such values begin to permeate to the psyche of industrial design and development, I will be very
pleasantly surprised. Though considered either futuristic or primitivist by the various standards of
industrial development and developmental permitting, the fab tree hab proposed by Mitch Joachim and
his team at MIT incorporates all of the features of sustainable, eco- effective design. I was fortunate to
meet with Mitch in 2007 at his office in New York, and while he is certainly a visionary designer by
anyone's standards, the core characteristics of this design are far from novel, in some cases dating back
thousands of years. Illustration 12 depicts the conceptual design of Joachim's fab tree hab.
Illustration 12: Cut- away view of the fab tree hab and aerial view of solar path ( Joaquim, 2008).
The fab tree hab design is a perfect example of eco- effectiveness, exactly as McDonough has described
it; the home is made from living trees in such a way as to provide human shelter without significantly
compromising the natural services provided by the trees. Human waste is composted and fed as
nutrients to the tree and backyard gardens. Rainwater is collected and recycled multiple times through
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various household systems, eventually circulating back to the gardens. The tree itself remains fully in-tact
and healthy, while its human inhabitants now have obvious incentives to aid in supporting the
continued health of their living home. One requirement of this design is that the tree be capable of self-grafting
in order that pleaching techniques may be used to construct the dome's lattice walls. Trees
capable of self- grafting include various species of ficus ( e. g. fig), live oak, and olive, among others.
The art of pleaching has existed since the dawn of civilization, and yet it is no less pertinent or
sustainable now than it ever has been. In addition to all of the ecological benefits of a living tree house,
these houses could provide their inhabitants with both food and shelter. Thus, a design for more eco-effective
homes has been proposed using a tree for its analog. Our next challenge: eco- effective cars.
Chapter 4. Sustainable Energy, Fuel, & Vehicle Technologies
Introduction
It is common sense that some forms of energy are more useful to human development than are others.
Specifically, it is those energy resources that are most concentrated and enduring that enable prolonged
work and subsequent growth of society. Such energy resources have been described by Odum as force
sources, with a supply that is supported in such a ubiquitous and continual way as to make energy
available to the end- user as a seemingly limitless force. One example of a force source is an electric
utility powerplant, where initial home appliances tapping into this source experience no apparent
decrease in the available supply of energy. In comparison, a flow source of energy resources is one
which is relatively limited, with a flow that is inherently controlled at the source. A good example is the
sun, which provides an intermittent, diffuse, and inherently limited radiative energy for a given area on
the Earth's surface, cycling on and off daily. Illustration 13 shows useful energy ( i. e. exergy) fluxes.
With seemingly limitless fuel availability at the pump and relatively low prices paid, the U. S. has
secured a petroleum fueling network that mostly resembles a force source. On the bleeding edge of
industrial development, the least economically privileged of the World tend to also be less dependent
upon petroleum as a source of energy, though their use of biomass for energy serves as another drastic
example of degrading resource use- patterns. In developing places around the World, lung disease from
the inhalation of smoke ( often from inefficient cooking stoves) is an even greater threat to life than
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estimates for other global pandemics, such as HIV ( Kammen and Dove, 1997; WHO, 2005). In this
case, preventable lung disease causes widespread suffering and death, while proper prevention
necessitates only that human communities take notice and proper action in order to disseminate more
appropriate technological options. Unfortunately, judging from past performance, civilization's
collective capacity to respond to problems occurring at such ecological and global scales is lacking.
Sustainable Energy Resources
A key aspect to the development of long- term, sustainable energy resource use- patterns is a shift away
from dependence upon solar energy savings and toward the use of solar energy income. An economist,
accountant, or savvy entrepreneur can quickly tell you that the economic success of any business,
household, or other money- making institution is dependent upon its ability to survive off of its income
rather than depending predominantly upon its savings ( e. g. storages, reserves, stock- piles). Current
energy consumption patterns can be considered in much the same way, where ancient biological matter
( first produced by the sun and then sequestered in the Earth for millions of years) should be viewed as
our solar energy savings; used sparingly, valued highly, and drawn down only when unforeseen or
uncontrollable bottlenecks in income necessitate their use.
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