Electric Bike Use in China and Their Impacts on the
Environment, Safety, Mobility and Accessibility
Christopher Cherry
WORKING PAPER
UCB- ITS- VWP- 2007- 3
April 2007
Electric ! Bike ! Use ! in ! China ! and ! Their ! Impacts ! on ! the ! Environment, ! Safety, ! Mobility ! and !
Accessibility !
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Christopher ! Cherry !
Institute ! of ! Transportation ! Studies !
University ! of ! California, ! Berkeley ! !
2614 ! Dwight ! Way ! 1782 !
Berkeley, ! CA ! 94720 " 1782 !
Phone: ! 510 " 717 " 9834 !
Fax: ! 510 " 643 " 5456 !
cherry@ berkeley. edu !
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ABSTRACT !
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Chinese ! cities ! have ! a ! long ! legacy ! of ! bicycle ! use ! due ! to ! relatively ! low ! incomes, ! dense ! urban !
development, ! and ! short ! trip ! lengths. ! Because ! of ! tremendous ! economic ! growth ! resulting ! in !
increased ! motorization ! and ! spatial ! expansion ! of ! cities, ! trips ! are ! becoming ! longer ! and ! more !
difficult ! to ! make ! by ! bicycle. ! As ! a ! result, ! electric ! powered ! two " wheelers ! have ! risen ! in ! popularity !
over ! the ! past ! five ! years. ! Touted ! as ! environmentally ! friendly ! vehicles, ! they ! are ! capable ! of !
traveling ! 40 " 50 ! kilometers ! on ! a ! single ! charge ! and ! emit ! zero ! tailpipe ! emissions. ! However, ! many !
cities ! are ! banning ! electric ! two " wheelers ! from ! city ! streets, ! citing ! safety ! and ! environmental !
problems. ! They ! do ! have ! significant ! environmental ! impacts ! because ! they ! use ! lead ! acid ! batteries !
and ! electricity, ! which ! is ! predominantly ! generated ! from ! coal ! power ! plants, ! but ! they ! also ! have !
significant ! mobility ! benefits ! that ! are ! seldom ! considered. ! This ! research ! investigates ! the !
tremendous ! growth ! of ! electric ! two " wheelers ! in ! China ! and ! compares ! their ! environmental ! and !
safety ! impacts ! to ! those ! of ! alternative ! modes ! of ! transportation; ! such ! as ! traditional ! bicycles, !
public ! transportation, ! or ! personal ! cars. ! This ! research ! also ! analyzes ! the ! benefits ! of ! electric ! two "
wheelers ! in ! terms ! of ! increased ! mobility ! and ! accessibility ! to ! opportunities ! due ! to ! their ! increased !
speed ! and ! range. ! Electric ! two " wheelers ! tend ! to ! be ! more ! energy ! efficient ! and ! produce ! less ! air !
pollution ! per ! kilometer ! traveled ! than ! many ! other ! modes. ! Also, ! to ! the ! extent ! that ! they ! displace !
car ! trips, ! they ! improve ! the ! safety ! of ! the ! transportation ! system ! in ! Chinese ! cities. ! While ! electric !
two " wheelers ! do ! have ! some ! problems ! that ! need ! to ! be ! addressed ! ( namely ! excessive ! lead ! acid !
battery ! pollution), ! they ! provide ! large ! benefits ! and ! can ! be ! a ! successful ! strategy ! toward ! a !
sustainable ! transportation ! future. !
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1 ! INTRODUCTION !
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China’s ! historically ! dense ! cities, ! low ! incomes ! and ! nearly ! perfect ! job " housing ! balance ! have ! made !
most ! cities ! very ! walkable ! and ! bikable. ! China’s ! rapid ! economic ! growth ! and ! transition ! to ! a ! market !
economy ! has ! caused ! an ! increased ! demand ! for ! travel ! in ! most ! Chinese ! cities. ! Much ! of ! this ! new !
demand ! is ! met ! by ! various ! motorized ! modes, ! particularly ! public ! transportation ! and ! personal !
automobiles ! for ! those ! who ! can ! afford ! them. ! Still, ! a ! very ! high ! proportion ! of ! trips ! are ! made ! by ! un "
motorized ! or ! semi " motorized ! modes. ! One ! mode ! of ! transportation ! that ! has ! indigenously !
developed ! in ! China ! is ! the ! electric ! bike. ! Electric ! bikes ! provide ! higher ! mobility ! and ! range ! than !
traditional ! bicycles ! and ! flexibility ! that ! cannot ! be ! found ! with ! public ! transportation ! modes. !
Several ! researchers ! have ! tracked ! the ! market ! development ! of ! this ! mode ! ( Chiu ! and ! Tzeng ! 1999; !
Jamerson ! and ! Benjamin ! 2004; ! Weinert, ! Ma ! et ! al. ! 2006) ! . ! This ! paper ! will ! present ! research ! results !
from ! a ! study ! aimed ! at ! investigating ! the ! main ! impacts ! electric ! bikes ! have ! on ! the ! transportation !
system, ! particularly, ! safety, ! environmental ! performance ! and ! mobility. ! !
!
Electric ! bike ! use ! in ! China ! has ! grown ! tremendously ! over ! the ! past ! decade, ! from ! several ! thousand !
electric ! bikes ! sold ! in ! the ! late ! 1990s ! to ! over ! ten ! million ! sold ! in ! 2005. ! Electric ! bikes ! fall ! into ! two !
categories ! in ! China, ! bicycle ! style ! electric ! bikes ! ( BSEB), ! which ! resemble ! traditional ! bicycles ! and !
scooter ! style ! electric ! bikes ! ( SSEB), ! which ! resemble ! scooters ! ( Figure ! 1). ! This ! growth ! rate ! is !
unparalleled ! by ! any ! mode ! in ! China ! and ! most ! cities ! have ! attempted ! to ! accommodate ! this ! mode !
to ! the ! extent ! possible. ! Two ! national ! regulations ! were ! developed ! to ! classify ! and ! control ! electric !
bikes. ! The ! National ! Road ! Transportation ! Law ! classifies ! electric ! bikes ! as ! “ bicycles” ! that ! can !
operate ! in ! the ! bicycle ! lane ! and ! is ! not ! subject ! to ! laws ! governing ! other ! motorized ! modes, ! such ! as !
license, ! insurance ! and ! helmet ! requirements. ! The ! General ! Technical ! Standards ! limits ! size ! and !
speed ! so ! that ! electric ! bikes ! can ! operate ! safely ! in ! the ! bicycle ! lane. ! These ! standards ! are ! poorly !
enforced ! and ! most ! SSEBs ! do ! not ! adhere ! to ! the ! maximum ! weight ! or ! speed ! requirements ! ( China !
Central ! Government ! 1999; ! China ! Central ! Government ! 2004). ! A ! recent ! movement ! among ! the !
industry ! has ! been ! to ! reclassify ! electric ! bikes ! as ! Light ! Electric ! Vehicles ! ( LEV), ! which ! will ! give ! them !
more ! latitude ! to ! develop ! larger ! and ! faster ! two ! and ! four ! wheeled ! vehicles ! ( Ni ! 2005). !
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Many ! cities ! are ! facing ! difficult ! policy ! decisions ! related ! to ! electric ! bike ! regulation. ! Several ! cities, !
including ! Beijing, ! Guangzhou ! and ! Fuzhou ! have ! or ! are ! attempting ! electric ! bike ! bans. ! Many ! policy !
makers ! feel ! that ! electric ! bikes ! are ! too ! fast ! to ! safely ! operate ! in ! the ! bicycle ! lane ! and ! too ! slow ! to !
safely ! operate ! in ! the ! traffic ! lane. ! Electric ! bikes ! are ! touted ! as ! environmentally ! friendly ! vehicles ! by !
Figure 1: Bicycle Style and Scooter Style Electric Bikes
( image source: www. forever- bikes. com)
proponents, ! but ! they ! do ! use ! electricity ! generated ! coal ! power ! plants ! and ! they ! also ! operate ! on !
lead ! acid ! batteries, ! introducing ! large ! amounts ! of ! lead ! into ! the ! environment ! through ! production !
and ! disposal ! processes. ! While ! electric ! bikes ! have ! perceived ! costs ! in ! terms ! of ! environmental !
impacts ! and ! safety, ! they ! also ! have ! benefits ! in ! terms ! of ! increased ! mobility ! and ! accessibility ! to !
goods ! and ! services ! in ! the ! urban ! area. ! Moreover, ! the ! net ! benefits ! and ! costs ! of ! electric ! bikes ! are !
relative ! to ! the ! mode ! that ! the ! user ! would ! otherwise ! use ! if ! electric ! bikes ! were ! banned. ! That ! is, ! if !
an ! electric ! bike ! user ! would ! otherwise ! choose ! a ! car; ! there ! could ! be ! net ! environmental ! and !
mobility ! advantages ! in ! choosing ! an ! electric ! bike ! as ! an ! alternative. ! If ! they ! would ! otherwise !
choose ! a ! bicycle, ! then ! electric ! bike ! use ! could ! result ! in ! net ! environmental ! advantages, ! but !
mobility ! disadvantages. ! !
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This ! paper ! will ! investigate ! some ! of ! these ! effects ! in ! order ! to ! inform ! the ! development ! of !
sustainable ! transportation ! policy ! in ! Chinese ! cities. ! The ! first ! part ! of ! the ! paper ! will ! discuss ! user !
characteristics ! and ! mode ! choice ! behavior ! of ! electric ! bike ! users ! in ! two ! case ! study ! cities, ! Shanghai !
and ! Kunming. ! The ! next ! part ! will ! discuss ! the ! results ! of ! environmental ! life ! cycle ! analysis !
performed ! on ! electric ! bikes, ! public ! buses, ! and ! bicycles. ! Next, ! potential ! safety ! impacts ! will ! be !
investigated. ! The ! following ! section ! will ! discuss ! the ! accessibility ! gains ! in ! Kunming ! compared ! to !
bus ! and ! bicycle. ! The ! final ! section ! will ! discuss ! the ! overall ! sustainability ! implications ! of ! this ! mode !
and ! suggest ! appropriate ! ways ! to ! develop ! policy ! related ! to ! electric ! bikes. ! !
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2 ! ELECTRIC ! BIKE ! USER ! CHARACTERISTICS !
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In ! order ! to ! identify ! the ! environmental ! and ! social ! impacts ! of ! electric ! bike ! use ! and ! regulation, ! the !
users ! must ! be ! identified ! and ! characteristics ! of ! their ! travel ! behavior ! and ! potential ! mode ! shift !
must ! be ! understood. ! An ! intercept ! survey ! of ! electric ! bike ! and ! traditional ! bicycle ! users ! was !
carried ! out ! in ! two ! cities ! ( Shanghai ! and ! Kunming) ! that ! identify ! the ! important ! demographic ! and !
travel ! factors ! ( Cherry ! and ! Cervero ! 2007). ! In ! Shanghai ! and ! Kunming, ! electric ! bike ! users ! take ! more !
trips ! and ! travel ! farther ! than ! bicycle ! users. ! Interestingly, ! in ! Shanghai ! and ! Kunming, ! over ! 50% ! of !
electric ! bike ! riders ! state ! that ! they ! would ! switch ! to ! public ! bus ! for ! their ! trip ! if ! electric ! bikes ! were !
not ! available. ! In ! Shanghai ! and ! Kunming, ! 12% ! and ! 21% ! would ! switch ! to ! bicycle, ! respectively. ! A !
similar ! study ! in ! Shijiazhuang ! found ! a ! different ! pattern, ! over ! 60% ! of ! electric ! bike ! users ! would !
switch ! to ! bicycle ! and ! only ! 30% ! would ! switch ! to ! bus ! ( Weinert, ! Ma ! et ! al. ! 2007). ! This ! difference !
could ! reflect ! the ! difference ! in ! bus ! service ! quality ! between ! the ! cities. ! In ! all ! three ! cities, ! bus ! and !
bicycle ! dominate ! as ! alternative ! modes, ! so ! any ! analysis ! should ! compare ! these ! modes ! together. ! !
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3 ! ENVIRONMENTAL ! IMPACTS !
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Electric ! bikes ! are ! extremely ! efficient ! and ! emit ! near ! zero ! emissions ! at ! the ! point ! of ! use. ! This ! could !
be ! considered ! a ! positive ! development ! as ! most ! Chinese ! cities ! battle ! poor ! urban ! air ! quality ! and !
the ! contribution ! of ! transportation ! related ! pollution ! is ! steadily ! increasing. ! Electric ! bikes ! do ! use !
electricity ! and ! most ! of ! China’s ! electric ! power ! is ! generated ! by ! coal ! power ! plants. ! Moreover, ! the !
emission ! rates ! from ! power ! plants ! is ! highly ! variable ! across ! China, ! as ! some ! power ! grids ! rely !
almost ! exclusively ! on ! coal ! power, ! while ! other ! rely ! heavily ! on ! hydro ! power. ! This ! results ! in !
different ! emission ! rates ! depending ! on ! where ! electric ! bikes ! are ! used. ! Electric ! bikes ! also ! use ! lead !
acid ! batteries, ! which ! emit ! lead ! into ! the ! environment ! through ! various ! production ! processes. ! In !
order ! to ! identify ! the ! effects ! of ! electric ! bike ! use ! in ! China ! on ! energy ! and ! the ! environment, ! the !
relative ! effects ! must ! be ! considered ! between ! modes. ! Lifecycle ! analyses ! were ! conducted ! on !
electric ! bikes, ! traditional ! bicycles ! and ! buses ! all ! produced ! and ! operated ! in ! China. ! Impacts ! from !
mining, ! manufacturing, ! use ! and ! disposal ! are ! included ! in ! the ! following ! sections. ! The ! following !
analyses ! are ! excerpts ! from ! ( Cherry, ! Weinert ! et ! al. ! 2007) ! and ! represent ! an ! “ average” ! bus ! ( 12m !
Volvo " Sunwin), ! bicycle, ! SSEB ! and ! BSEB. ! The ! next ! sub " sections ! discuss ! the ! production ! phase, ! use !
phase, ! and ! lead ! pollution ! of ! the ! three ! modes. ! !
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3.1 ! Production ! Phase !
! !
The ! production ! phase ! includes ! raw ! material ! extraction, ! processing, ! manufacturing ! and ! assembly. !
Some ! processes ! were ! omitted ! for ! which ! there ! was ! no ! reliable ! data ! or ! that ! were ! too ! minor ! to !
significantly ! influence ! the ! results. ! Energy ! and ! emission ! intensities ! ( e. g. ! kWh/ kg ! or ! grams ! PM/ kg) !
were ! calculated ! from ! statistical ! yearbooks ! and ! summed ! across ! all ! components ! of ! the ! vehicle !
( National ! Bureau ! of ! Statistics ! 2003; ! National ! Bureau ! of ! Statistics ! 2004; ! National ! Bureau ! of !
Statistics ! 2005; ! China ! Data ! Online ! 2006). ! Vehicle ! material ! inventories ! were ! derived ! from !
interviews ! or ! websites ! of ! vehicle ! manufacturers. ! The ! energy ! use ! and ! emissions ! of ! the !
production ! processes ! are ! reported ! in ! Table ! 1. ! !
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Table ! 1: ! Energy ! Use ! and ! Emissions ! of ! Bus, ! Bicycle, ! and ! Electric ! Bike ! ! !
Production ! Phase ! a !
!
Energy ! Use !
( kWh) !
CO2eq !
( Metric ! Tonne) !
SO2 ! !
( kg) !
PM ! b !
( kg) !
Bus ! 278918 ! 69.77 ! 273.37 ! 1062.61 !
Bicycle ! 360 ! 0.09 ! 0.27 ! 1.17 !
BSEB ! 1453 ! 0.60 ! 1.56 ! 5.82 !
SSEB ! 2119 ! 0.87 ! 2.19 ! 8.16 !
a ! Production ! Phases ! include: ! Mining, ! Petroleum ! Extraction, ! Refining, ! Manufacture ! and !
Assembly ! of ! raw ! materials ! that ! make ! up ! the ! physical ! vehicle. ! It ! does ! not ! include ! impacts ! of !
fuel ! production ! and ! use ! consumed ! during ! the ! vehicle’s ! use ! phase !
b ! PM ! is ! only ! from ! combustion ! processes ! and ! does ! not ! include ! PM ! emissions ! from ! industrial !
non " combustion ! sources. !
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3.2 ! Use ! Phase ! !
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The ! three ! modes ! rely ! on ! different ! motive ! power ! sources, ! with ! different ! fuels. ! Each ! of ! these !
sources ! has ! different ! energy ! efficiencies ! and ! different ! dominate ! pollutants. ! Buses ! burn ! fossil !
fuels ! in ! internal ! combustion ! engines. ! Electric ! bikes ! utilize ! electricity ! from ! a ! variety ! of ! sources, !
including ! hydropower, ! fossil ! fuel ! generation, ! and ! some ! nuclear ! power. ! China’s ! energy ! mix ! is !
approximately ! 75% ! coal, ! 8% ! gas, ! 15% ! hydro ! power ! and ! 2% ! nuclear. ! The ! energy ! mix ! varies !
significantly ! by ! region ! ( Zhu, ! Zheng ! et ! al. ! 2005), ! which ! in ! turn ! affects ! the ! emission ! rates. ! ! Bicycles !
are ! human ! powered ! and ! the ! energy ! required ! to ! propel ! a ! bicycle ! is ! derived ! from ! food !
consumption. ! However, ! it ! is ! unclear ! if ! bicyclists ! consume ! proportionally ! more ! food ! than ! non "
bicyclists ! ( Ulrich ! 2006). ! Bicyclists ! are ! generally ! thinner, ! indicating ! that ! they ! burn ! more ! calories !
bicycling ! than ! they ! consume ! specifically ! for ! bicycling ! ( Bell, ! Ge ! et ! al. ! 2002). ! Table ! 2 ! shows !
emission ! rates ! and ! energy ! use ! during ! the ! use ! phase ! of ! the ! vehicle ! lifecycle. ! !
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Table ! 2: ! Energy ! Use ! and ! Emissions ! of ! Bus, ! Bicycle, ! and ! Electric ! Bike !
Use ! Phase ! a ! b !
!
Energy !
Use !
( kWh) !
CO2eq !
( Metric !
Tonne) !
SO2 !
( kg) !
PM !
( kg) !
COc !
( kg) !
HCc !
( kg) !
NOX
c !
( kg) !
Pbd !
( kg) !
Bus ! 6252503 ! 2352 ! 520 ! 2196 ! 7973 ! 728 ! 13513 ! 248.18 !
Bicyclee ! 615 ! 0.00 ! 0.00 ! 0.00 ! 0.00 ! 0.00 ! 0.00 ! 0.00 !
BSEB ! f ! 661 ! 0.51 ! 4.61 ! 0.44 ! Unkn ! Unkn ! Unkn ! 35.50 !
SSEB ! f ! 859 ! 0.66 ! 5.99 ! 0.58 ! Unkn ! Unkn ! Unkn ! 50.67 !
a ! The ! use ! phase ! includes ! fuel ! extraction, ! processing ! and ! combustion ! either ! through ! internal ! combustion !
engines ! ( bus) ! or ! power ! plant ! electricity ! generation ! ( e " bike). ! !
b ! The ! impacts ! of ! a ! vehicle ! during ! the ! use ! phase ! are ! directly ! related ! to ! the ! assumed ! lifespan ! of ! the !
vehicle, ! informed ! by ! interviews ! with ! manufacturers. ! The ! assumed ! lifespans ! are ! as ! follows: ! Bus "
1,000,000 ! km, ! Electric ! Bike " 50,000 ! km, ! Bicycle " 20,000 ! km !
c ! The ! author ! found ! no ! data ! related ! to ! CO, ! HC, ! and ! NOx ! emission ! factors ! for ! electricity ! generation ! in !
China !
d ! Pb ! ( Lead) ! pollution ! is ! considered ! under ! the ! “ use” ! phase ! because ! batteries ! are ! used ! as ! a ! type ! of ! “ fuel” !
for ! electric ! bikes ! and ! battery ! life ! is ! significantly ! influenced ! by ! use. ! Bus ! batteries ! are ! included ! for !
comparison ! purposes ! and ! all ! Lead ! is ! emitted ! during ! the ! production, ! recycling, ! and ! disposal ! phases. ! This !
is ! discussed ! more ! in ! the ! following ! section. !
e ! Bicycle ! impacts ! are ! largely ! zero ! during ! the ! use ! phase ! and ! do ! not ! consider ! the ! energy ! and ! emissions !
required ! by ! the ! production ! of ! food. ! Energy ! use ! here ! reports ! the ! total ! energy ! required ! to ! pedal ! a ! bicycle !
for ! the ! total ! lifespan ! of ! the ! bicycle. ! !
f ! Emissions ! from ! electric ! bikes ! are ! related ! to ! energy ! mix ! in ! the ! power ! grid ! in ! which ! a ! city ! is ! located. ! The !
emissions ! presented ! here ! represent ! all ! of ! China’s ! average ! energy ! mix, ! but ! some ! cities’ ! electricity ! is !
almost ! exclusively ! coal ! generate, ! while ! others ! rely ! heavily ! on ! hydropower
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The ! environmental ! impact ! of ! each ! mode ! is ! very ! different, ! due ! to ! differences ! in ! fuel ! and !
propulsion ! technologies. ! The ! use ! phase ! constitutes ! about ! 95% ! of ! energy ! use ! for ! buses, ! 65% ! for !
bicycles ! and ! 30% ! for ! electric ! bikes. ! This ! is ! partially ! due ! to ! the ! low ! useable ! lifespan ! of ! bicycles !
and ! electric ! bikes. ! In ! general, ! most ! of ! the ! impacts ! of ! buses ! occur ! during ! the ! use ! phase, ! most ! of !
the ! impacts ! of ! bicycles ! and ! electric ! bikes ! occur ! during ! the ! production ! phase. ! One ! notable !
exception ! is ! the ! SO2 ! emissions ! from ! electricity ! generation. ! ! !
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3.3 ! Lead ! Pollution !
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Lead ! pollution ! is ! the ! most ! problematic ! environmental ! problem ! with ! electric ! bikes. ! They ! use !
approximately ! one ! battery ! set ! every ! 10,000 ! kilometers. ! Lead ! is ! emitted ! into ! the ! environment !
through ! mining ! and ! smelting ! ( Phase ! I), ! battery ! manufacturing ! ( Phase ! II), ! recycling ! and ! disposal !
processes ! ( Phase ! III). ! ( Mao, ! Lu ! et ! al. ! 2006) ! found ! that ! high ! levels ! of ! lead ! are ! lost ! to ! the !
environment ! through ! all ! of ! these ! processes ! and ! even ! if ! China ! could ! achieve ! 100% ! recycling ! rates !
of ! lead ! acid ! batteries, ! up ! to ! 30% ! of ! the ! lead ! would ! be ! emitted ! into ! the ! environment ! as ! solid, !
water, ! or ! airborne ! waste. ! Often ! these ! emission ! sources ! are ! in ! rural ! or ! industrial ! areas. ! This ! lead !
will ! eventually ! impact ! human ! systems ! and ! cause ! developmental ! disorders ! associated ! with ! lead !
poisoning. ! It ! is ! important ! to ! note ! that ! these ! are ! not ! tailpipe ! emission. ! Lead ! loss ! rates ! from ! each !
process ! and ! various ! recycling ! scenarios ! are ! presented ! in ! Table ! 3. ! !
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During ! the ! production ! phase ! ( Phase ! I), ! the ! lead ! emissions ! are ! related ! to ! the ! amount ! of ! virgin !
material ! from ! which ! a ! battery ! is ! produced. ! Even ! if ! 100% ! of ! batteries ! were ! recycled, ! this ! would !
only ! account ! for ! 60% ! of ! future ! lead ! demand ! because ! of ! market ! growth ! and ! lead ! losses. ! The !
official ! proportion ! of ! batteries ! recycled ! is ! 31%, ! which ! constitute ! 22% ! of ! the ! total ! input ! into ! new !
batteries. ! It ! is ! conceivable ! that ! up ! to ! 62% ! of ! batteries ! are ! recycled ! through ! informal, !
unregulated ! operations, ! which ! would ! increase ! the ! composition ! of ! new ! batteries ! to ! 44% ! recycled !
material ! ( Mao, ! Lu ! et ! al. ! 2006). ! If ! batteries ! have ! a ! 100% ! recycling ! rate, ! about ! 60% ! of ! the ! lead !
demand ! would ! be ! met ! and ! the ! other ! 40% ! would ! come ! from ! virgin ! material. ! Scenarios ! A " E !
calculate ! the ! emission ! of ! lead ! using ! different ! recycling ! rates. ! The ! most ! realistic ! case ! is ! Scenario !
C, ! where ! 62% ! of ! all ! batteries ! are ! recycled; ! resulting ! in ! 44% ! recycled ! lead ! in ! new ! batteries ! and ! 66% !
originating ! from ! virgin ! sources. ! Under ! this ! scenario, ! lead ! is ! emitted ! into ! the ! environment ! that ! is !
equivalent ! to ! 69% ! of ! the ! battery’s ! lead ! content, ! so ! a ! battery ! with ! 10 ! kilograms ! of ! lead ! would !
represent ! 6.9 ! kilograms ! of ! lead ! pollution. ! !
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! TABLE ! 3: ! Lead ! Emissions !
! ! Bus ! Bicycle ! BSEB ! SSEB !
! Battery ! Weight ! ( lead ! content) ! kg ! 90 ! 0 ! 10.3 ! 14.7 !
I !
Lead ! Production ! Loss ! ! ! !
(% ! Recycled ! Material) !
! ! ! !
0% 28.08 ! ! 3.21 ! 4.59 !
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 22% a 25.80 ! ! 2.95 ! 4.21 !
44% b 23.53 ! ! 2.69 ! 3.84 !
60% 21.87 ! ! 2.50 ! 3.57 !
II !
Manufacture ! Loss ! ! ! ! ! ! !
4.8% a 4.32 ! ! 0.49 ! 0.71 !
III !
End " Of " Life ! Loss ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
( Recycling ! Rate) !
! ! ! !
0% 90.00 ! ! 10.30 ! 14.70 !
31% a 62.10 ! ! 7.11 ! 10.14 !
! ! 62% b 34.20 ! ! 3.91 ! 5.59 !
85% c 13.50 ! ! 1.55 ! 2.21 !
100% 0.00 ! ! 0.00 ! 0.00 !
! ! ! ! ! !
! Scenarios ! ! ! ! !
( Production, ! Manufacture, ! EOL) !
! ! ! !
! Scenario ! A ! ( 0%, ! 4.8%, ! 0%) ! 122.40 ! 14.01 ! 19.99 !
! Scenario ! B ! ( 22%, ! 4.8%, ! 31%) ! 92.22 ! ! 10.55 ! 15.06 !
! Scenario ! C ! ( 44%, ! 4.8%, ! 62%) ! 62.05 ! ! 7.10 ! 10.13 !
! Scenario ! D ! ( 60%, ! 4.8%, ! 85%) ! 39.69 ! ! 4.54 ! 6.48 !
! Scenario ! E ! ( 60% ! 4.8% ! 100%) ! 26.19 ! ! 3.00 ! 4.28 !
! a ! Official ! Estimates ! from ! ! ( Mao, ! Lu ! et ! al. ! 2006) !
b ! Estimates ! including ! the ! informal ! recycling ! sector, ! which ! is ! composed !
of ! about ! 300 ! small ! enterprises ! and ! accounts ! for ! about ! 50% ! of ! the ! lead !
demand. ! ( Mao, ! Lu ! et ! al. ! 2006) !
c ! Interviews ! with ! e " bike ! manufacturers ! !
3.4 ! Total ! Lifecycle ! Environmental ! Impact ! Per ! Passenger ! Kilometer !
!
! While ! lifecycle ! energy ! use ! and ! emissions ! of ! buses ! are ! much ! higher ! than ! those ! of ! electric ! bikes !
or ! bicycles, ! this ! is ! offset ! their ! longer ! lifespan ! and ! higher ! load ! factors. ! When ! comparing ! impacts, !
it ! is ! important ! to ! compare ! the ! average ! emissions ! per ! passenger ! kilometer ! traveled. ! Table ! 4 !
represents ! the ! environmental ! impact ! of ! both ! the ! production ! and ! use ! phases, ! per ! passenger !
kilometer ! traveled ! on ! various ! alternative ! modes. ! Cars ! were ! included ! in ! this ! table, ! drawing ! from !
literature ! ( Sullivan, ! Williams ! et ! al. ! 1998) ! to ! show ! the ! orders ! of ! magnitude ! differences ! compared !
to ! the ! more ! sustainable ! modes. ! While ! personal ! cars ! represent ! a ! small ! proportion ! of ! the !
alternative ! mode ! of ! electric ! bike ! users, ! the ! magnitude ! of ! a ! marginal ! shift ! to ! cars ! could ! outweigh !
larger ! shifts ! to ! buses ! or ! bicycles. ! Bicycles ! outperform ! all ! modes ! from ! an ! environmental !
perspective. ! Per ! capita ! energy ! use ! is ! higher ! for ! buses ! than ! alternative ! modes, ! but ! buses ! have !
lower ! emissions ! of ! certain ! other ! pollutants ! than ! electric ! bikes, ! namely ! SO2 ! and ! PM. ! Overall, !
electric ! bikes ! are ! very ! energy ! efficient ! and ! have ! low ! CO2 ! and ! NOX ! emissions, ! compared ! to ! buses !
and ! bicycles; ! and ! electric ! bikes ! are ! cleaner ! than ! cars ! on ! all ! metrics ! with ! the ! exception ! of ! Lead !
( Pb). ! ! !
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Table ! 4: ! Lifecycle ! Environmental ! Impact ! Per ! Passenger ! Kilometer ! Traveleda !
!
Energy ! Use !
( kWh/ 100 ! pax "
km) !
CO2 !
( g/ pax "
km) !
SO2 !
( g/ pax "
km) !
PM !
( g/ pax "
km) !
CO !
( g/ pax "
km) !
HC !
( g/ pax "
km) !
NOX !
( g/ pax "
km) !
Pbb !
( g/ pax "
km) !
Carc ! 140 ! 306 ! 0.689 ! 0.277 ! 10.06 ! 1.67 ! 1.32 ! 0.299 !
Bus ! 13.06 ! 48.4 ! 0.022 ! 0.065 ! 0.159 ! 0.015 ! 0.270 ! 0.005 !
Bicycle ! 4.88 ! 4.70 ! 0.014 ! 0.059 ! Unkn ! Unkn ! Unkn ! 0.000 !
BSEB ! 6.12 ! 22.08 ! 0.123 ! 0.125 ! Unkn ! Unkn ! 0.027d ! 0.710 !
SSEB ! 8.42 ! 30.44 ! 0.164 ! 0.175 ! Unkn ! Unkn ! 0.020d ! 1.013 !
a ! Assuming ! lifespan ! of ! 1,000,000 ! km, ! 20,000 ! km, ! and ! 50,000 ! km ! and ! average ! load ! factors ! of ! 50 ! pax, ! 1 !
pax, ! and ! 1 ! pax ! for ! bus, ! bicycle ! and ! electric ! bike, ! respectively. !
b ! Assuming ! one ! battery ! every ! 10,000 ! km ! for ! electric ! bikes ! and ! one ! battery ! every ! 3 ! years ! or ! 250,000 !
kilometers ! for ! buses. !
Note: ! some ! fields ! are ! Unknown ! ( Unkn) ! because ! data ! are ! not ! available ! for ! the ! emission ! of ! these !
pollutants ! from ! production ! processes ! and/ or ! power ! plant ! emissions !
c ! Sullivan ! et ! al. ! 1998 " LCA ! of ! Generic ! US ! Car !
d ! Only ! Use ! phase ! emission ! rate, ! no ! production ! processes ! included !
Note: ! some ! fields ! are ! Unknown ! ( Unkn) ! because ! data ! are ! not ! available ! for ! the ! emission ! of ! these !
pollutants ! from ! production ! processes ! and/ or ! power ! plant ! emissions
!
!
One ! important ! note ! is ! the ! regional ! nature ! of ! the ! electric ! bike ! pollution ! compared ! to ! the !
local/ urban ! nature ! of ! bus ! emissions. ! Use ! emissions ! from ! remote ! power ! plants ! are ! easier ! to !
regulate ! and ! control ! than ! bus ! emissions. ! Also, ! bus ! tailpipe ! emissions ! are ! emitted ! into ! dense !
urban ! areas, ! whereas ! power ! plant ! emissions ! are ! generally ! dispersed ! throughout ! rural ! areas. ! The !
public ! health ! effects ! of ! electric ! bike ! emissions ! from ! power ! plants ! are ! likely ! lower ! than ! the ! public !
health ! effects ! of ! the ! same ! emissions ! out ! of ! the ! tailpipe ! of ! a ! vehicle ! in ! an ! urban ! area. !
!
Although ! buses ! have ! much ! larger ! batteries ! and ! thus ! emit ! more ! lead ! per ! battery ! used, ! they !
travel ! more ! passenger ! kilometers ! on ! each ! battery ! than ! electric ! bikes. ! Because ! electric ! bikes !
often ! require ! battery ! replacement, ! the ! emission ! rate ! is ! 2 " 3 ! orders ! of ! magnitude ! higher ! than ! bus !
lead ! battery ! emission ! rates. ! While ! these ! are ! not ! tailpipe ! emission ! rates, ! they ! do ! enter ! human !
systems ! and ! impact ! public ! health. !
!
4 ! SAFETY ! IMPACTS ! OF ! ELECTRIC ! BIKES !
!
Many ! cities ! cite ! safety ! concerns ! when ! developing ! electric ! bike ! policy. ! Safety ! is ! one ! of ! the ! main !
reasons ! that ! Guangzhou ! recently ! imposed ! a ! ban ! on ! electric ! bikes ! ( Guangzhou ! Daily ! 2006). ! When !
Beijing ! officials ! attempted ! to ! ban ! electric ! bikes, ! they ! also ! cited ! safety ! concerns, ! while ! electric !
bike ! proponents ! posited ! that ! electric ! bikes ! are ! safer ! than ! other ! modes ! ( Ribet ! 2005). ! Detailed !
primary ! crash ! data ! are ! largely ! unavailable ! to ! the ! public ! in ! most ! Chinese ! cities. ! One ! of ! the ! issues !
raised ! is ! the ! safety ! of ! electric ! bikes ! in ! bicycle ! lanes. ! They ! operate ! faster ! than ! bicycles, ! but ! slower !
than ! cars, ! so ! they ! safely ! fit ! in ! neither ! lane. ! Regulations ! require ! maximum ! speeds ! of ! 20 ! km/ hr !
and ! maximum ! weight ! of ! 40 ! kg, ! in ! an ! effort ! to ! improve ! safety ! and ! make ! electric ! bikes ! more ! like !
bicycles, ! but ! these ! standards ! are ! poorly ! enforced ! and ! manufacturers ! are ! forced ! to ! reduce !
quality ! to ! meet ! low ! weight ! requirements. ! Another ! issue ! is ! conflicts ! with ! larger ! vehicles. ! While ! a !
collision ! with ! a ! motor ! vehicle ! will ! almost ! certainly ! result ! in ! injury ! or ! death ! of ! an ! electric ! bike !
user, ! it ! is ! important ! to ! distinguish ! that ! increased ! fatalities ! by ! a ! certain ! mode ! do ! not ! necessarily !
imply ! that ! that ! mode ! is ! dangerous. ! It ! could ! be ! that ! electric ! bikes ! are ! simply ! vulnerable ! road !
users. ! Some ! 60% ! of ! fatalities ! in ! China ! are ! vulnerable ! road ! users ! ( pedestrians ! and ! two " wheeled !
vehicle ! users). ! !
!
If ! electric ! bike ! users ! all ! shifted ! to ! automobiles, ! perhaps ! the ! overall ! transportation ! fatality ! rate !
would ! be ! worse. ! In ! 1998, ! large ! and ! small ! motor ! vehicles ! were ! the ! cause ! of ! 90% ! of ! Shanghai’s !
24,000 ! accidents ! ( Zacharias ! 2002). ! Vulnerable ! road ! users ! caused ! the ! remaining ! 10% ! of ! accidents, !
but ! likely ! paid ! the ! highest ! costs. ! From ! the ! survey ! data ! presented ! in ! section ! 2, ! 30 " 60% ! of ! users !
would ! shift ! to ! public ! transit ! if ! electric ! bikes ! were ! banned ! ( depending ! on ! the ! city). ! While ! public !
transit ! riders ! are ! generally ! safe, ! they ! would ! have ! to ! walk ! to ! transit ! stops ! and ! be ! exposed ! to !
traffic ! during ! that ! walk. ! From ! the ! survey ! data, ! a ! large ! portion ! of ! the ! electric ! bike ! population !
would ! shift ! to ! bicycle. ! The ! risk ! involved ! in ! riding ! a ! bicycle ! could ! be ! higher ! than ! an ! electric ! bike. !
Now ! that ! electric ! bikes ! are ! becoming ! more ! prevalent, ! some ! data ! are ! showing ! that ! electric ! bikes !
are ! not ! as ! dangerous ! as ! one ! might ! expect. ! The ! China ! Bicycle ! Association ! cited ! that ! the ! 2002 !
crash ! rate ! ( crashes/ vehicle ! population) ! for ! electric ! bikes ! in ! Shanghai ! is ! 0.17%, ! while ! the ! crash !
rate ! for ! cars ! is ! 1.6% ! ( Ribet ! 2005). ! Of ! course ! a ! crash ! on ! an ! electric ! bike ! might ! be ! much ! more !
damaging ! than ! a ! crash ! in ! a ! car, ! and ! minor ! electric ! bike ! crashes ! could ! go ! unreported. ! Policy !
makers ! need ! to ! consider ! not ! only ! crash ! rates, ! but ! fatality ! rates, ! expressed ! in ! terms ! of ! fatalities !
per ! vehicle ! kilometer ! traveled. ! Table ! 5 ! shows ! 2004 ! safety ! data ! in ! Zhejiang ! Province ! ( bordering !
Shanghai ! to ! the ! south) ! and ! Jiangsu ! Province ! ( bordering ! Shanghai ! to ! the ! west). ! !
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Table ! 5: ! Safety ! Data ! from ! Zhejiang ! and ! Jiangsu ! Provinces !
Zhejiang ! Province !
!
Fatalitiesa ! Injuriesa ! Veh ! popb
( million) !
Vkt/ yrc
( million) !
Fatality ! Rate !
( fatalities/ m " vkt) !
Passenger ! vehicle ! 3731 ! 29884 ! 1.81 18100 0.206 !
Bicycle ! 1194 ! 7148 ! 24.9 53012 ! 0.023 !
Electric ! bike ! 129 ! 1660 ! 1.5 3255 ! 0.039 !
Jiangsu ! Province !
Passenger ! vehicle ! 2153 ! 8180 ! 1.13 ! 11300 ! 0.191 !
Bicycle ! 210 ! 507 ! 41.9 ! 89205 ! 0.002 !
Electric ! bike ! 65 ! 538 ! 4.2 ! 10307 ! 0.007 !
a ! Secondary ! source ! Zhejiang ! Public ! Security ! Bureau, ! Zhejiang ! Bicycle ! Association, ! Jiangsu ! Public ! Security !
Bureau !
b ! Zhejiang, ! Jiangsu ! and ! China ! Statistical ! Yearbooks ! 2005 !
c ! 10,000 ! vkt/ year/ veh ! assumed ! for ! motor ! vehicles ! and ! average ! of ! Kunming ! and ! Shanghai ! survey ! data ! for !
bicycle ! ( 2129 ! km/ bike/ yr) ! and ! e " bike ! ( 2454 ! km/ ebike/ yr). ! !
!
!
These ! figures ! are ! supported ! by ! 2005 ! data ! provided ! by ! the ! Kunming ! Public ! Safety ! Bureau ! citing ! a !
crash ! rate ! of ! 0.05% ! for ! electric ! bike ! users, ! with ! five ! fatalities. ! Using ! a ! conservative ! estimate ! of !
171,000 ! electric ! bikes ! and ! 2400 ! vkt/ year ! results ! in ! a ! fatality ! rate ! of ! 0.012 ! fatalities/ m " vkt. !
!
These ! data ! show ! that, ! at ! the ! margin, ! electric ! bikes ! are ! slightly ! more ! dangerous ! than ! bicycles ! but !
much ! safer ! than ! cars. ! The ! safety ! impacts ! compared ! to ! riding ! a ! bus ! are ! unclear, ! since ! the ! bus ! trip !
includes ! walk ! access. ! While ! bus ! riders ! might ! be ! safe ! while ! on ! the ! bus, ! the ! most ! hazardous ! part !
of ! the ! journey ! is ! likely ! the ! walk ! to ! and ! from ! the ! bus ! stop. !
!
Since ! motor ! vehicles ! are ! the ! cause ! of ! most ! accidents ! and ! also ! the ! most ! unsafe ! mode ! of !
transport, ! a ! shift ! from ! bicycle ! or ! electric ! bike ! to ! motor ! vehicle ! will ! likely ! cause ! a ! significant !
increase ! in ! transportation ! related ! fatalities. ! Occupants ! of ! passenger ! vehicles ! will ! be ! victims ! of !
road ! fatalities ! and ! vulnerable ! road ! users ! will ! also ! be ! victims ! of ! more ! heavy ! vehicles ! on ! the !
roadway. !
!
Many ! opponents ! of ! electric ! bike ! use ! in ! cities ! suggest ! that ! electric ! bikes ! are ! unsafe ! and ! point ! to !
total ! fatalities ! as ! evidence ! of ! their ! safety ! record. ! Electric ! bike ! users ! and ! manufacturers ! often !
feel ! safer ! than ! other ! modes, ! particularly ! bicycles. ! Electric ! bikes ! are ! easier ! than ! bicycles ! to !
control ! and ! maneuver ! in ! heavy ! traffic ! because ! of ! their ! low ! center ! of ! gravity, ! acceleration !
characteristics, ! and ! superior ! brake ! systems. ! One ! serious ! safety ! concern ! is ! the ! speed ! differential !
between ! bicycles ! and ! electric ! bikes ! operating ! in ! the ! bicycle ! lane. ! While ! high ! electric ! bike ! speed !
might ! reduce ! the ! differential ! between ! electric ! bikes ! and ! cars, ! it ! might ! cause ! conflict ! in ! the !
bicycle ! lane. ! More ! careful ! analysis ! is ! needed ! to ! identify ! the ! impacts ! of ! the ! speed ! differential ! in !
the ! bicycle ! lane. !
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5 ! ACCESSIBILITY ! ADVANTAGES ! OF ! ELECTRIC ! BIKE ! USERS !
!
All ! modes ! of ! transportation ! have ! certain ! environmental ! and ! social ! costs. ! A ! society ! can ! tolerate !
those ! costs ! if ! the ! benefits ! are ! tangible ! and ! outweigh ! the ! costs. ! The ! primary ! benefit ! of ! any !
transportation ! mode ! is ! the ! mobility ! and ! accessibility ! increases ! it ! provides ! to ! the ! user. ! If ! a ! mode !
has ! the ! same ! mobility ! and ! accessibility ! characteristics, ! but ! higher ! environmental ! externalities ! of !
an ! alternative, ! then ! this ! might ! be ! seen ! as ! an ! inferior ! mode. ! In ! the ! case ! of ! the ! electric ! bike, ! it !
certainly ! emits ! more ! pollution ! and ! has ! a ! slightly ! worse ! safety ! record ! than ! a ! bicycle ! or ! a ! bus, ! but !
it ! provides ! much ! higher ! levels ! of ! mobility ! and ! thus ! accessibility ! in ! Chinese ! cities. ! Mobility ! and !
accessibility ! is ! dependent ! upon ! the ! urban ! form, ! distribution ! of ! land ! uses, ! and ! transportation !
infrastructure. ! Ease ! of ! movement ! or ! operating ! speeds ! of ! various ! modes ! can ! describe !
differences ! in ! mobility. ! Accessibility ! is ! defined ! as ! the ! number ! of ! opportunities ! available ! within ! a !
certain ! travel ! time. ! Accessibility ! can ! be ! improved ! in ! two ! ways, ! by ! proximity ! or ! mobility. !
Proximity ! is ! a ! function ! of ! urban ! form ! ( i. e. ! jobs " housing ! balance) ! and ! mobility ! is ! determined ! by !
transportation ! system ! operations ! and ! vehicle ! performance ! characteristics. ! Accessibility ! to ! jobs !
has ! been ! identified ! as ! a ! major ! contributor ! to ! poverty ! in ! developing ! countries ! and ! is ! an ! essential !
impact ! to ! consider ! in ! the ! development ! any ! transportation ! policy ! ( World ! Bank ! 2002). ! To ! identify !
the ! mobility ! and ! accessibility ! changes ! of ! electric ! bike ! users, ! analyses ! were ! carried ! out ! in !
Kunming ! and ! Shanghai. !
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5.1 ! Mobility ! Increases !
!
In ! order ! to ! identify ! the ! differences ! in ! mobility ! between ! modes, ! the ! average ! operating ! speed ! of !
electric ! bikes, ! bicycles ! and ! buses ! must ! be ! identified. ! The ! average ! operating ! speeds ! of ! buses ! in !
Kunming ! and ! Shanghai ! is ! just ! over ! 10 ! km/ hr ! ( including ! stops) ! ( Fudan ! News ! 2004; ! Xinhua ! Net !
2005). ! In ! Kunming, ! this ! is ! down ! from ! 16 ! km/ hr ! in ! 2003 ! ( Kunming ! University ! of ! Science ! and !
Technology ! 2005). ! Most ! electric ! bikes ! have ! maximum ! operating ! speeds ! of ! around ! 30 ! km/ hr ! and !
bicycles ! can ! also ! approach ! this ! maximum ! speed. ! In ! order ! to ! identify ! the ! true ! mobility ! increases, !
average ! operating ! speeds ! ( including ! signal ! delay) ! were ! measured ! using ! a ! floating ! vehicle !
methodology, ! with ! speed ! measurements ! captured ! with ! a ! handheld ! Global ! Positioning ! System !
( GPS) ! interfaced ! with ! a ! Geographic ! Information ! System ! ( GIS). ! A ! speed ! measurement ! is ! collected !
every ! second. ! Under ! the ! floating ! vehicle ! methodology, ! the ! measurement ! vehicle ! “ floats” ! in ! a !
traffic ! stream ! or ! platoon ! of ! vehicles, ! adopting ! the ! average ! speed ! and ! balancing ! the ! number ! of !
vehicles ! that ! are ! overtaken ! by ! the ! number ! of ! vehicles ! that ! overtake ! the ! measurement ! vehicle. !
This ! results ! in ! an ! approximate ! median ! speed ! distribution. ! From ! March ! to ! May ! 2006 ! speed !
studies ! were ! conducted ! for ! bicycles ! and ! electric ! bikes ! during ! the ! morning ! and ! evening ! peak !
travel ! periods ! on ! all ! major ! roads ! in ! Kunming ! and ! a ! subset ! of ! major ! commute ! routes ! in ! Shanghai. !
The ! speed ! distributions ! are ! shown ! in ! Figure ! 2 " 3, ! with ! the ! dashed ! lines ! indicating ! average ! speed, !
not ! including ! stops ! and ! the ! solid ! lines ! indicating ! average ! speed ! including ! stops. ! There ! is ! little !
difference ! between ! the ! speeds ! in ! both ! cities, ! implying ! that ! these ! results ! may ! be ! transferable ! to !
other ! cities. !
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The ! figures ! show ! that ! electric ! bike ! users ! do ! in ! fact ! travel ! significantly ! faster ! than ! bicyclists. ! The !
average ! speed ! ( not ! including ! stops) ! is ! about ! 18 ! km/ hr, ! or ! 40% ! higher ! than ! the ! average ! speed ! of !
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
Proportion of Observations
Speed km/ hr
Figure 2: Histogram of Speed Observations in Kunming
electric bike
bicycle
10.9 12.8 14.7 17.9
40% !
35% !
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
Proportion of Observations
Speed km/ hr
Figure 3: Histogram of Speed Observations in Shanghai
bicycle
electric bike
! 31%
! 39%
11.1 13.0 14.5 18.2
bicycles ! ( 13 ! km/ hr). ! Since ! electric ! bikes ! are ! faster ! than ! bicycles, ! they ! spend ! a ! higher ! proportion !
of ! their ! travel ! time ! stopped ! at ! signals ! and ! the ! overall ! average ! speed ! drops ! to ! about ! 14.5 ! km/ hr !
and ! 11 ! km/ hr ! for ! electric ! bikes ! and ! bicycles, ! respectively. !
!
5.2 ! Job ! Accessibility ! Gains: ! The ! Case ! of ! Kunming !
!
The ! mobility ! improvements ! of ! electric ! bikes, ! represented ! by ! average ! operating ! speeds, ! will !
certainly ! improve ! the ! accessibility ! of ! shopping, ! service ! and ! job ! opportunities ! in ! Kunming’s ! urban !
area. ! The ! map ! presented ! in ! Figure ! 4 ! illustrates ! the ! accessibility ! differences ! by ! different ! modes !
within ! 20 ! minute ! travel ! time ! from ! an ! origin ! in ! the ! city ! center. ! Each ! point ! represents ! 3,000 ! jobs !
and ! it ! is ! clear ! that ! bus ! access ! is ! by ! far ! the ! mode ! with ! the ! poorest ! accessibility. ! Within ! 20 !
minutes, ! electric ! bikes ! can ! reach ! most ! of ! the ! job ! opportunities ! in ! the ! urban ! area, ! bikes ! reach ! a !
smaller ! proportion ! and ! buses ! reach ! a ! very ! small ! proportion. !
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Buses ! operate ! on ! a ! limited ! network, ! but ! could ! have ! higher ! operating ! speeds ! on ! certain ! corridors. !
Figure ! 4 ! illustrates ! a ! bus ! operating ! at ! 10 ! km/ hr ! and ! about ! half ! of ! the ! 20 ! minute ! trip ! time ! is ! lost !
Figure 4: Mode Specific Jobs Access Within 20 minutes of Kunming City Center
during ! access, ! wait, ! and ! egress ! times. ! As ! trip ! distances ! extend, ! a ! higher ! proportion ! of ! the ! time ! is !
spent ! moving ! and ! the ! bus’ ! disadvantage ! in ! reduced. ! !
!
While ! this ! map ! is ! an ! interesting ! illustration, ! to ! calculate ! the ! true ! accessibility ! gains ! of ! electric !
bikes ! in ! Kunming, ! one ! has ! to ! calculate ! the ! number ! of ! jobs ! accessed ! at ! different ! time ! increments !
from ! all ! residential ! locations. ! To ! quantify ! accessibility, ! an ! accessibility ! index ! has ! been ! developed !
that ! measures ! relative ! accessibility ! as ! the ! proportion ! of ! activities ! reached ! by ! competing ! modes !
( Cervero ! 2005). ! From ! a ! given ! origin, ! if ! a ! traveler ! can ! reach ! 20 ! jobs ! by ! bicycle ! and ! 30 ! jobs ! by !
electric ! bike ! within ! a ! certain ! time ! frame, ! then ! the ! accessibility ! index ! would ! be ! 1.5, ! or ! electric !
bikes ! provide ! 50% ! more ! accessibility ! than ! bicycles. ! Using ! GIS ! tools, ! accessibility ! indices ! are !
calculated ! in ! ten ! minute ! increments ! for ! all ! 695 ! residential ! locations, ! each ! representing ! 3000 !
residents. ! Table ! 6 ! shows ! the ! accessibility ! indices ! for ! electric ! bikes ! compared ! to ! buses ! and !
bicycles. ! Bus ! is ! included ! twice, ! the ! current ! 10kph ! operating ! speed ! and ! the ! 16kph ! operating !
speed ! of ! a ! couple ! of ! years ! ago. ! This ! illustrates ! the ! drop ! in ! accessibility ! as ! a ! result ! of ! reduced !
operating ! speeds. ! !
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Table ! 6: ! Job ! Accessibility ! Indices ! Between ! E " bike ! and ! Alternatives !
! Cumulative ! jobs ! accessed ! from ! all ! residential ! origins ! ( x3000) !
! 10 ! min ! 20 ! min ! 30 ! min ! 40 ! min ! 50 ! min ! 60 ! min !
Bicycle ! 12508 ! 43984 ! 80814 ! 115223 ! 146332 ! 171103 !
Bus ! ( 10kph) ! 0 ! 3002 ! 17938 ! 42587 ! 68878 ! 99021 !
Bus ! ( 16kph) ! 0 ! 8672 ! 44753 ! 90246 ! 132313 ! 165930 !
E " bike ! 21985 ! 69673 ! 116736 ! 157266 ! 183590 ! 195956 !
!
! Accessibility ! Index !
! 10 ! min ! 20 ! min ! 30 ! min ! 40 ! min ! 50 ! min ! 60 ! min !
E " bike/ Bicycle ! 1.76 ! 1.58 ! 1.44 ! 1.36 ! 1.25 ! 1.15 !
E " bike/ Bus ! ( 10kph) ! Inf ! 23.21 ! 6.51 ! 3.69 ! 2.67 ! 1.98 !
E " bike/ Bus ! ( 16kph) ! Inf ! 8.03 ! 2.61 ! 1.74 ! 1.39 ! 1.18 !
!
Because ! of ! electric ! bikes’ ! higher ! operating ! speeds ! and ! door ! to ! door ! performance, ! they ! provide !
the ! highest ! level ! of ! accessibility ! by ! far. ! Electric ! bikes ! have ! the ! highest ! accessibility ! advantage !
over ! alternative ! modes ! for ! short ! trips. ! Notably, ! electric ! bikes ! provide ! access ! to ! 23 ! times ! more !
jobs ! than ! buses ! within ! a ! 20 ! minute ! travel ! time. ! Electric ! bikes ! also ! provide ! 58% ! more ! accessibility !
to ! jobs ! than ! a ! bicycle ! within ! 20 ! minutes. ! This ! is ! significant, ! because ! 70% ! of ! all ! trips ! made ! by !
bicycle ! and ! electric ! bike ! fall ! within ! this ! time ! category. ! As ! trips ! become ! longer, ! vehicles ! begin ! to !
reach ! most ! of ! the ! jobs ! in ! the ! region ! and ! the ! higher ! speed ! of ! electric ! bikes ! does ! not ! result ! in !
increased ! job ! access. ! The ! jobs ! reached ! within ! 60 ! minutes ! are ! similar ! across ! modes ! ( except ! the !
slow ! bus), ! because ! all ! modes ! can ! reach ! most ! jobs ! in ! the ! region ! within ! one ! hour. ! !
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The ! reduced ! speed ! of ! buses ! over ! the ! past ! several ! years ! has ! had ! a ! major ! effect ! on ! jobs !
accessibility. ! In ! 2003, ! the ! job ! access ! by ! bus ! within ! 30 ! minutes ! was ! 2.5 ! times ! what ! it ! is ! now. ! This !
is ! a ! significant ! reduction ! and ! reduces ! the ! competitiveness ! of ! public ! transportation ! compared ! to !
personal ! transportation ! modes. ! !
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6 ! APPLICATION ! TO ! CASE ! STUDIES " KUNMING ! AND ! SHANGHAI !
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The ! above ! sections ! outline ! relative ! advantages ! or ! disadvantages ! of ! electric ! bike ! use ! compared !
to ! alternative ! modes. ! Suppose ! that ! a ! city ! were ! to ! ban ! electric ! bikes, ! which ! is ! the ! popular ! form !
of ! regulation. ! The ! impacts ! of ! the ! ban ! would ! depend ! on ! the ! shift ! to ! alternative ! modes. ! Based ! on !
yearly ! passenger ! kilometers ! traveled ! ( PKT) ! of ! electric ! bike ! users ! from ! the ! surveys ! discussed !
briefly ! in ! section ! 2 ! and ! electric ! bike ! population ! ( 1,000,000 ! in ! Shanghai ! and ! 230,000 ! in ! Kunming), !
the ! displaced ! PKT ! by ! alternative ! modes ! can ! be ! calculated. ! This ! is ! presented ! in ! figure ! 5: ! !
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Applying ! city ! specific ! lifecycle ! environmental ! impacts ! to ! the ! distribution ! of ! the ! alternative !
modes ! results ! in ! net ! increases ! and ! decreases ! of ! emissions ! of ! various ! pollutants. ! The ! net !
environmental ! impacts ! of ! an ! electric ! bike ! ban ! are ! shown ! in ! Table ! 7, ! where ! the ! yearly ! displaced !
emissions ! are ! calculated ! as ! the ! net ! increase ! or ! decrease ! in ! emission ! rates ! between ! two ! modes, !
multiplied ! by ! the ! yearly ! displaced ! PKT ! and ! summed ! over ! all ! alternative ! modes. ! ! Negative !
numbers ! represent ! decreased ! emissions ! if ! electric ! bikes ! were ! banned; ! for ! instance ! there ! would !
be ! large ! decreases ! of ! lead ! emissions ! as ! a ! result ! of ! an ! electric ! bike ! ban. ! Positive ! values ! represent !
increases ! in ! certain ! pollutants ! as ! a ! result ! of ! an ! electric ! bike ! ban, ! for ! instance ! CO2 ! emissions !
increase ! if ! electric ! bikes ! are ! banned. ! !
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( 1511)
( 240)
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( 54)
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( 39) ( 39)
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Bus Bicycle Walk Taxi Car Subway Scooter
Kunming Annual Displaced PKT ( millions)
Shanghai Annual Displaced PKT ( millions)
Figure 5: Displaced PKT by Mode- Shanghai and Kunming
Shanghai Displaced PKT
Kunming Displaced PKT
!
While ! there ! are ! increases ! in ! some ! pollutants ! in ! the ! event ! of ! a ! ban, ! the ! public ! health ! impacts ! of !
banning ! electric ! bikes ! would ! likely ! be ! negative, ! or ! there ! would ! be ! more ! air ! pollution ! related !
deaths ! because ! the ! negative ! public ! health ! impacts ! of ! increased ! NOX ! emissions ! would ! outweigh !
the ! positive ! public ! health ! impacts ! of ! decreased ! PM ! and ! SOX ! emission, ! based ! on ! dose ! response !
relationships ! ( Health ! Effects ! Institute ! 2004). ! !
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The ! safety ! impact ! can ! be ! estimated ! by ! mapping ! the ! road ! fatality ! rates ! presented ! in ! section ! 4 ! to !
the ! displaced ! PKT ! in ! Figure ! 5. ! The ! small ! amount ! of ! displaced ! PKT ! that ! would ! otherwise ! use ! auto !
modes ! ( car ! and ! taxi) ! would ! contribute ! to ! an ! increased ! number ! of ! roadway ! fatalities ! if ! electric !
bikes ! were ! banned ! from ! Shanghai ! or ! Kunming. ! Shanghai ! would ! see ! a ! net ! increase ! of ! 7 " 50 !
roadway ! fatalities ! and ! Kunming ! would ! a ! net ! increase ! of ! 5 " 13 ! roadway ! fatalities. ! !
!
The ! biggest ! benefit ! that ! electric ! bike ! users ! face ! is ! the ! increased ! mobility ! provided ! by ! this ! mode, !
especially ! compared ! to ! the ! bus. ! If ! electric ! bikes ! are ! banned ! and ! all ! trips ! are ! made ! by ! the ! best !
stated ! alternative ! mode, ! Shanghai ! and ! Kunming ! electric ! bike ! users ! would ! save ! 107 ! and ! 126 !
hours ! of ! travel ! time ! per ! year, ! respectively. ! This ! time ! savings ! could ! significantly ! improve ! the !
productivity ! and ! earning ! potential ! of ! electric ! bike ! users. ! !
!
If ! electric ! bikes ! were ! banned ! in ! Kunming ! or ! Shanghai, ! there ! would ! be ! definite ! degradations ! in !
local ! public ! health ! due ! to ! air ! pollution ! and ! roadway ! safety, ! mostly ! from ! the ! small ! portion ! of !
users ! that ! would ! shift ! to ! automobile ! modes. ! In ! addition, ! former ! electric ! bike ! users ! would ! spend !
more ! time ! traveling, ! reducing ! their ! productivity. ! The ! only ! advantage ! that ! is ! quantified ! in ! this !
paper ! is ! the ! reduction ! of ! lead ! pollution, ! which ! could ! result ! in ! significant, ! but ! non " local ! benefits !
in ! public ! health. ! This ! implies ! that ! cities ! benefit ! from ! electric ! bike ! use ! and ! the ! most ! challenging !
environmental ! externality ! is ! non " local, ! so ! cities ! should ! embrace ! electric ! bikes ! and ! national !
policy ! should ! be ! developed ! to ! mitigate ! externalities ! associated ! with ! lead ! production ! and !
recycling. ! !
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Table ! 7: ! Net ! Environmental ! Impact ! of ! Electric ! Bike ! Ban " Yearly ! Displaced ! Emissions !
Impact ! Per ! Electric ! Bike ! Removed !
CO2 ! NOX ! SO2 ! PM ! Lead( Pb) ! Energy !
( kg/ yr) ! ( g/ yr) ! ( g/ yr) ! ( g/ yr) ! ( g/ yr) ! ( kWh/ yr) !
Kunming ! ! 121 ! 791 ! 6.2 ! " 149 ! " 2050 ! 538 !
Shanghai ! ! 109 ! 773 ! " 137 ! " 152 ! " 1908 ! 495 !
City " Wide ! Impact ! of ! Electric ! Bike ! Ban !
CO2 ! NOX ! SO2 ! PM ! Lead( Pb) ! Energy !
tonne/ yr ! tonne/ yr ! tonne/ yr ! tonne/ yr ! tonne/ yr ! GWh/ yr !
Kunming ! ! 27,648 ! 181 ! 1.4 ! " 34 ! " 469 ! 123 !
Shanghai ! ! 108,546 ! 774 ! " 137 ! " 152 ! " 1908 ! 495 !
7 ! COST ! EFFECTIVENESS ! OF ! MOBILITY !
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Ultimately, ! sustainable ! transportation ! policy ! for ! a ! city ! would ! be ! one ! that ! maximizes ! mobility !
and ! access ! to ! the ! city, ! but ! minimizes ! user ! and ! social ! costs. ! Electric ! bikes ! provide ! high ! levels ! of !
mobility ! with ! very ! low ! user ! costs. ! Moreover, ! the ! only ! negative ! externality ! that ! is ! worse ! than ! all !
other ! modes ! is ! lead ! pollution ! from ! the ! use ! of ! lead ! acid ! batteries. ! There ! are ! alternative ! battery !
technologies ! that ! can ! be ! used, ! which ! will ! increase ! the ! cost ! of ! electric ! bike ! use, ! but ! mitigate ! the !
lead ! pollution ! problem. ! Nickel ! Metal ! Hydride ! and ! Lithium ! Ion ! batteries ! are ! alternatives ! are ! more !
environmentally ! benign ! but ! would ! increase ! the ! purchase ! price ! of ! an ! electric ! bike ! by ! 20 " 25%, !
and ! increase ! the ! operating ! cost ! by ! about ! 100% ! ( Jamerson ! and ! Benjamin ! 2004). ! Even ! with ! these !
increased ! costs, ! the ! cost " effectiveness ! of ! travel ! is ! still ! lower ! than ! any ! other ! modes. ! Figure ! 6 !
shows ! the ! cost ! effectiveness ! of ! traveling ! 100 ! kilometers ! by ! various ! alternative ! modes, ! including !
internal ! costs ! ( travel ! time, ! out " of " pocket ! costs) ! and ! external ! costs ! ( pollution ! remediation, ! safety, !
public ! subsidy). ! !
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$ 0.00 !
$ 5.00 !
$ 10.00 !
$ 15.00 !
$ 20.00 !
$ 25.00 !
$ 30.00 !
$ 35.00 !
E " bike Bicycle Bus Car
Cost ! per ! 100 ! pax " km
Figure ! 6: ! Cost ! Effectiveness ! of ! 100 ! Pax " km ! Travel
Lead ! Acid ! Battery !
Alternative
CO2 ! Remediation
SO2 ! Remediation
Safety !
Travel ! Time
Purchase ! Price
Fare
Gasoline ! ( Use)
Electricity ! ( Use)
Battery ! Cost
Notes: ! !
a ! Electricity ! rate: ! $ 0.08/ kWh ! from ! ( Weinert, ! Ma ! et ! al. ! 2007) ! and ! ( Metschies ! 2007) !
b ! It ! is ! assumed ! that ! bus ! fare ! covers ! all ! operating ! costs ! in ! China, ! including ! fuel, ! maintenance ! and !
labor, ! but ! not ! including ! vehicle ! capital ! costs. !
c ! Purchase ! price ! assumes ! E " bike, ! Bicycle, ! Bus ! and ! Car ! cost ! $ 275, ! ! $ 50, ! ! $ 85,000, ! and ! $ 10,000, !
respectively ! and ! have ! useable ! lives ! of ! 50,000, ! 20,000, ! 50,000,000, ! and ! 197,000, ! passenger !
kilometers ! respectively ! ( Sullivan, ! Williams ! et ! al. ! 1998; ! People's ! Daily ! Online ! 2002; ! Volvo ! 2006). ! !
d ! Travel ! time ! savings ! uses ! speeds ! and ! trip ! lengths ! derived ! in ! from ! section ! 5 ! and ! average ! trip ! lengths !
from ! survey ! data, ! average ! hourly ! wage ! of ! ebike ! user ! $ 1.40 !
e ! Midpoint ! Value ! of ! Statistical ! Life ! ( VOSL) ! estimates ! from ! ( Liu ! 1997; ! Feng ! 1999; ! Brajer ! and ! Mead !
2003), ! about ! $ 500,000 ! !
f ! Cost ! effectiveness ! study ! of ! SO2 ! remediation ! ( Li, ! Guttikunda ! et ! al. ! 2004), ! $ 1.24/ kg. ! These !
improvements ! also ! have ! more ! minor ! co " benefits ! of ! reducing ! NOX ! and ! PM, ! not ! accounted ! for ! here. ! !
g ! Approximate ! value ! of ! a ! metric ! tonne ! of ! CO2 ! from ! Clean ! Development ! Mechanism ! ( CDM) !
framework, ! $ 45/ kg !
h ! Cost ! of ! remediating ! all ! lead ! pollution ! from ! lead ! acid ! battery ! use ! in ! electric ! bikes ! by ! shifting ! to !
alternative ! battery ! technology ! ( NiMH), ! $ 0.69/ 100km. ! Not ! relevant ! for ! cars ! or ! buses ! because ! of !
different ! battery ! technology ! requirements. !
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The ! biggest ! “ cost” ! of ! travel ! is ! the ! time ! spent ! traveling. ! For ! 100 ! km ! of ! travel, ! bus ! riders !
internalize ! a ! high ! cost ! of ! travel ! in ! the ! time ! spent ! on ! a ! slow ! mode. ! Car ! drivers ! on ! the ! other ! hand !
spend ! less ! in ! travel, ! but ! much ! of ! the ! cost ! of ! travel ! by ! car ! is ! external, ! mostly ! safety ! impacts ! in !
which ! the ! car ! driver ! does ! not ! explicitly ! pay. ! Considering ! this ! subset ! of ! costs, ! electric ! bikes ! are !
comparable ! with ! bicycles ! in ! providing ! the ! lowest ! cost ! mobility. ! !
!
8 ! CONCLUSIONS ! AND ! POLICY ! RECOMMENDATIONS !
!
The ! fate ! of ! electric ! bikes ! in ! Chinese ! cities ! is ! being ! closely ! watched ! by ! academics, !
environmentalists, ! policy ! makers, ! industry ! and ! users. ! Ultimately, ! any ! regulatory ! action ! on !
electric ! bikes ! affects ! everyone ! living ! in ! Chinese ! cities ! and ! to ! some ! extent ! affects ! the ! global !
population ! as ! China’s ! transportation ! trends ! are ! having ! greater ! influence ! on ! resource !
consumption ! and ! climate ! change. ! Opponents ! of ! electric ! bikes ! point ! to ! some ! of ! electric ! bikes’ !
largest ! impacts ! when ! arguing ! against ! them, ! including ! lead ! pollution, ! safety ! issues, ! conflict ! with !
other ! modes ! ( namely ! cars), ! and ! “ image”. ! They ! ignore ! important ! improvements ! in ! mobility ! and !
accessibility ! that ! vastly ! improves ! the ! quality ! of ! living ! of ! users ! of ! this ! low " cost ! mode. ! Proponents !
of ! electric ! bikes ! often ! defend ! their ! safety ! record ! and ! suggest ! that ! electric ! bikes ! are ! clean ! modes !
of ! transportation ! with ! low ! noise ! levels ! and ! zero ! tailpipe ! emissions. ! Neither ! group ! compares !
electric ! bikes ! to ! the ! set ! of ! best ! alternatives ! to ! determine ! the ! net ! impact. ! However, ! both ! groups !
make ! valid ! points ! and ! this ! research ! attempts ! objectively ! quantify ! the ! most ! significant ! of ! these !
impacts; ! namely ! environmental ! impacts, ! safety, ! mobility, ! and ! accessibility. ! !
!
Electric ! bikes ! are ! relatively ! energy ! efficient ! and ! emit ! no ! tailpipe ! emissions, ! which ! is ! a ! big !
advantage ! in ! Chinese ! cities. ! They ! do ! emit ! pollution ! from ! regional ! power ! plants, ! most ! of ! which !
are ! coal ! powered. ! Electric ! bikes ! are ! unique ! because ! the ! emission ! rate ! depends ! on ! the ! region ! in !
which ! the ! electric ! bike ! is ! used. ! Different ! regions ! have ! different ! energy ! mixes, ! so ! electric ! bikes !
operated ! in ! southern ! China ! emit ! less ! than ! electric ! bikes ! in ! northern ! China ! because ! of ! southern !
China’s ! relative ! reliance ! on ! hydro ! power. ! When ! compared ! to ! buses, ! electric ! bikes ! perform ! well !
during ! the ! use ! phase, ! but ! when ! comparing ! lifecycle ! emissions, ! electric ! bikes ! do ! not ! perform ! so !
well ! on ! some ! metrics, ! particularly ! PM ! and ! SO2 ! emissions. ! Electric ! bikes ! have ! low ! usable ! lifespans, !
so ! all ! of ! the ! impacts ! of ! production ! of ! the ! vehicle ! are ! spread ! over ! a ! low ! number ! of ! passenger !
kilometers ! ( about ! 50,000). ! Buses ! are ! much ! larger ! and ! have ! more ! environmental ! impacts ! per !
vehicle, ! but ! those ! impacts ! are ! spread ! over ! a ! large ! number ! of ! passenger ! kilometers ! ( about !
50,000,000). ! The ! impacts ! of ! the ! production ! processes ! are ! not ! borne ! by ! the ! users ! of ! the ! system, !
but ! the ! residents ! nearby ! industrial ! facilities, ! often ! in ! other ! provinces. ! Environmentally, ! bicycles !
perform ! best ! of ! all ! modes, ! with ! low ! energy ! use ! and ! greenhouse ! gas ! emissions, ! but ! comparable !
NOX ! and ! SO2 ! emissions ! as ! buses ! over ! the ! lifecycle. ! !
!
The ! biggest ! and ! most ! cited ! environmental ! problem ! with ! electric ! bikes ! is ! lead ! pollution. ! The !
reason ! lead ! acid ! batteries ! are ! used ! in ! electric ! bikes ! is ! because ! the ! externalities ! of ! lead ! pollution !
are ! not ! included ! in ! the ! price. ! More ! expensive ! alternative ! technologies ! are ! available. ! Instead ! of !
banning ! electric ! bikes ! because ! of ! lead ! pollution, ! a ! more ! appropriate ! policy ! would ! be ! to ! increase !
the ! cost, ! through ! pricing ! mechanisms ! to ! encourage ! the ! industry ! to ! shift ! to ! alternative ! battery !
technologies, ! or ! subsidizing ! alternative ! battery ! technologies. ! !
!
Electric ! bikes ! are ! not ! as ! unsafe ! as ! they ! might ! seem. ! They ! are ! still ! small ! vehicles ! whose ! speed ! is !
restrained, ! either ! through ! regulation ! or ! interaction ! with ! other ! vehicles. ! Fatality ! rates ! are ! nearly !
as ! low ! as ! bicycle ! fatality ! rates ! and ! much ! lower ! than ! cars. ! It ! is ! likely ! that ! most ! of ! those ! fatalities !
are ! the ! result ! of ! collisions ! with ! motor ! vehicles ! and ! most ! of ! those ! collisions ! are ! likely ! caused ! by !
motor ! vehicle. ! It ! is ! important ! to ! distinguish ! between ! a ! mode ! that ! is ! unsafe ! and ! a ! mode ! that ! is !
vulnerable. ! While ! the ! initial ! response ! might ! be ! to ! ban ! the ! vulnerable ! mode, ! this ! would !
effectively ! transfer ! more ! people ! to ! modes ! that ! truly ! reduce ! the ! safety ! of ! the ! transportation !
system. ! As ! technology ! advances ! and ! people ! become ! more ! accustomed ! to ! electric ! bikes, ! safety !
will ! likely ! improve !
!
The ! biggest ! benefit ! of ! electric ! bikes ! is ! increased ! mobility ! and ! thus ! accessibility ! to ! all ! types ! of !
opportunities ! in ! the ! urban ! area. ! Buses ! have ! very ! low ! levels ! of ! mobility, ! especially ! for ! short ! trips !
where ! most ! of ! the ! travel ! time ! is ! spent ! accessing ! bus ! stops ! and ! waiting. ! Electric ! bikes ! provide !
very ! cost ! effective ! personal ! mobility ! that ! is ! unmatched ! by ! any ! mode ! in ! the ! transportation !
system. ! While ! this ! mobility ! might ! lead ! to ! longer ! trip ! lengths, ! and ! thus ! more ! externalities !
compared ! to ! an ! alternative ! mode, ! it ! also ! leads ! to ! more ! opportunities ! of ! urban ! low ! income !
individuals. ! Bicycles ! also ! perform ! well ! because ! of ! their ! flexibility ! and ! segregation ! from !
congested ! traffic ! lanes. ! !
!
To ! develop ! sustainable ! transportation ! policy ! related ! to ! electric ! bikes, ! one ! must ! look ! at ! the ! most !
significant ! benefits ! and ! costs. ! The ! importance ! of ! these ! benefits ! and ! costs ! vary ! from ! city ! to ! city !
and ! policy ! makers ! must ! be ! willing ! to ! accept ! some ! costs ! in ! order ! to ! realize ! the ! benefits ! of ! any !
mode. ! Buses ! are ! the ! most ! efficient ! users ! of ! road ! space, ! provide ! the ! highest ! people ! moving !
capacity ! and ! low ! emission ! levels, ! but ! they ! are ! inflexible ! and ! inappropriate ! for ! short ! trips. ! Thus, !
mobility ! and ! accessibility ! are ! diminished. ! Bicycles ! have ! the ! lowest ! environmental ! externalities, !
and ! have ! medium ! levels ! of ! mobility. ! Electric ! bikes ! have ! very ! high ! levels ! of ! mobility ! and ! can !
provide ! access ! to ! opportunities ! throughout ! the ! city, ! but ! emit ! medium ! to ! high ! levels ! of ! most !
pollutants. ! Since ! most ! of ! the ! environmental ! impacts ! are ! borne ! during ! the ! production ! processes, !
national ! policy ! should ! be ! developed ! that ! mitigates ! the ! environmental ! impacts ! of ! production, !
especially ! lead ! acid ! batteries. ! While ! electric ! bikes ! perform ! worse ! that ! buses ! or ! bicycles ! on ! most !
environmental ! metrics, ! they ! are ! perhaps ! the ! best ! performing ! mode ! of ! personal ! motorized !
transportation. ! As ! incomes ! increase, ! perhaps ! electric ! bikes ! could ! delay ! or ! replace ! the ! use ! of !
more ! environmentally ! damaging ! and ! less ! safe ! modes, ! such ! as ! cars ! or ! motorcycles. ! It ! is !
important ! to ! understand ! and ! predict ! the ! impact ! of ! mode ! shift ! now ! and ! in ! the ! future ! if ! electric !
bikes ! are ! no ! longer ! in ! the ! choice ! set. ! Policy ! makers ! need ! to ! determine ! local, ! regional, ! and !
national ! priorities ! for ! sustainable ! development ! and ! determine ! if ! electric ! bikes ! are ! suitable ! for !
meeting ! those ! goals. ! If ! the ! priority ! is ! to ! minimize ! emissions ! of ! certain ! pollutants ! at ! the ! cost ! of !
mobility, ! then ! electric ! bikes ! should ! be ! regulated ! in ! some ! form. ! If ! policy ! makers ! are ! willing ! to !
accept ! some ! pollution ! to ! increase ! access ! to ! opportunities ! throughout ! the ! city, ! then ! electric !
bikes ! should ! be ! encouraged. ! To ! the ! extent ! that ! electric ! bikes ! reduce ! or ! delay ! auto ! trips, ! they !
should ! be ! encouraged. !
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS !
This ! work ! was ! made ! possible ! by ! funding ! from ! the ! University ! of ! California ! Berkeley ! Center ! for !
Future ! Urban ! Transport " A ! Volvo ! Center ! of ! Excellence. ! I ! would ! like ! to ! thank ! Adib ! Kanafani, !
Robert ! Cervero, ! Arpad ! Horvath, ! Maximilian ! Auffhammer ! and ! Elizabeth ! Deakin ! for ! supporting !
and ! advising ! this ! research. ! I ! would ! also ! like ! to ! thank ! academic ! partners ! in ! China, ! specifically !
Xiong ! Jian ! from ! the ! Kunming ! University ! of ! Science ! and ! Technology, ! Pan ! Haixiao ! from ! Tongji !
University, ! Yang ! Xinmiao ! from ! Tsinghua ! University. ! I ! would ! like ! to ! thank ! Jonathan ! Weinert ! and !
Chaktan ! Ma ! for ! aiding ! and ! complementing ! this ! research. ! I ! also ! appreciate ! the ! help ! and !
cooperation ! of ! several ! electric ! bike ! manufacturers ! in ! Shanghai, ! Zhejiang ! Province, ! and ! Jiangsu !
Province. !
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